Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
kidding, I hope
Illini Basketball 2022-2023
- Status
kidding, I hope
This is far from true, unless you measure the strength of an entire conference based off of one team. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-did-the-big-tens-march-magic-go/#:~:text=The Big Ten's margin is,flops is hard to discern.
They were 4-14 in the BIG that year. Not sure how many teams hated to play us. Outside of a 6-game winning streak to start the season, and beating Missouri and Indiana, not much in the way of highlights that year.
They’ll pressure more than last few years, but nothing like they tried to do that year. We have better athletes, length and quickness now, but there is a reason BU revamped the D. It just didn’t work.
I imagine the main factors in Kenpom's preseason model are last year's efficiency, returning production, recruiting information, and probably other factors as well, so more top down. Torvik's are mostly based off of player projections and estimating their playing time, so more bottom up. Illinois lost a ton of production last year and finished 20th, so 33rd seems reasonable based off the supposed inputs of his model.
CleaverName
- Chicago but not there anymore
I didn't know about that ! I just meant his other song Shake ya a$$
That’s basically it. Pomeroy has said that his preseason rankings should be taken with a grain of salt, and that you really don’t get much that’s useful out of his model in November and December.
6. Some Loyalty posters will opine that Bench Player X should be getting a LOT more minutes. This will typically happen when Starter Y has a subpar performance.
I have no more information than anyone else, but I suspect Dainja will play more than a few minutes a game. https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Illinois
Interesting. It really doesn’t FEEL that way, but, I understand the stats.
He's going to have to unless Hawk can play 35 minutes per game. I think he'll be in our top 7 or 8 guys in terms of minutes. And maybe even start a bit.
When was the last time the Illini went through a season without a starter missing a game? How about never? ,Regardless, I expect every player on the roster to provide meaningful, and hopefully, quality minutes. Even Lieb will be needed to defend Edey and maybe Dickinson. Now, whether they step up or get consumed by the moment, pressure, desire, or level of competition, we can only wait and see. Simply trying to point out that though this team has a high ceiling, a myriad of circumstances can bring it far short of expectations....unpredictable or foreseeable events. But it should be an interesting ride.
It seems to me that the B1G's shortcomings in the Tourney is due, in some unknown part, by the difference in how the games are called. The B1G is known as a league that lets more calls go than most conferences. They beat the heck out of each other by the refs "letting them play," but come Tourney time with games being called tight, it's not an easy transition to make. In a one and out format, you don't have long to adjust. For the stats guys, have you seen anything showing the difference in B1G Season reffing and that in the Show? Might just be my bias.
Don't a number of B10 officials work the NCAA tourney?
I thought they tried to not have crews work the games of teams from their conference. I could be wrong.
No. The tournament is king. The conference including Illinois has underperformed.
I'd absolutely trade a win in the tournament for one in the challenge.
This is a narrative I’ve seen in here before, and I don’t buy it. I don’t have stats either way, but I’m fairly certain that number of fouls called in tourney has actually gone down over last few years. Not sure how that compares to foul calls in BIG. I also don’t recall Illini tourney games being called much tighter than regular season games over last two years. Heck if that were true, shouldn’t Kofi have had 30 free throw attempts?
theNewGuy
- Dallas, TX
Dan's going to have to put the prediction's thread up soon.
I got a bold one for you...
Goode is going to be consistently in the starting lineup come February and lead the team in 3PT% with over 40%.
Goode is a great piece to have. Who’s starting spot do you envision him taking?
Matthew Mayer's 3pt % did drop last season. He went from 40% to 32%. If Goode is a lights out shooter and Mayer is streaky, maybe he takes Mayer's spot. But I'm guessing Mayer is better defensively, in transition, and on the glass.
theNewGuy
- Dallas, TX
This was my thinking. In this scenario, Goode would be the opening offense and Mayer would be used as a defensive closer.
Mayer still probably ends up with more minutes tho.
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