1/24 Bracketology

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#26      
From the cited article: "At multiple times during the week—partially to account for results of conference tournaments and partially just for quality assurance—the committee goes through a "scrubbing process." This consists of starting at the very top of the list and comparing No. 1 overall to No. 2 overall to decide if they should be swapped. Then it's on to No. 2 vs. No. 3, and so on down the line. If six of the 10 committee members vote for a swap, it happens, and then the newly higher-seeded team is immediately compared to the team now above it to determine if it should climb any higher."
 
#28      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
MIZNOZ jumped up to 48th in the NET ratings, making them a Q1 loss. We're now 3-5 in Q1.

Robert posts our "team sheet" on Mondays on Twitter. I may post them a bit more often here as well. You can look at them any time (free) here: https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Illinois

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#29      
We’re gonna be a 6 or 7 seed playing a 3 or 2 seed K-State in the second round..aren’t we?

We match up pretty well with K-State actually. They have great guard play which is always needed in March but they take (and make) tough shots and don't really play through a dominant big man.
 
#31      

NASchamp

Atlanta
Say we’re right around in that 6-9 seed range come March, which I think is totally possible for a team like ours that’s still figuring a lot of things out. There is a big difference in the bracket where a 8 or 9 seed is placed vs. a 6 or 7 seed in terms of the teams you’ll play and how soon you’ll see them. Likewise, getting a 6 seed vs. a 7 seed also makes a big difference.

This year that may not matter too much as it looks like there’s a good deal of parity across the board in college basketball. Blame the transfer rule or NIL or whatever it may be…
 
#32      
#33      

DeonThomas

South Carolina
Sat, Jan 28at Wisconsin2:00pm FOX
Tue, Jan 31Nebraska6:00pm BTN
Sat, Feb 4at Iowa1:30pm FOX
Tue, Feb 7Minnesota7:30pm BTN
Sat, Feb 11Rutgers1:00pm FS1
Tue, Feb 14at Penn State6:00pm ESPN/2/U
Sat, Feb 18at Indiana11:00am ESPN/2
Thu, Feb 23Northwestern8:00pm BTN
Sun, Feb 26at Ohio State11:00am CBS
Thu, Mar 2Michigan6:00pm ESPN
Sun, Mar 5at Purdue11:30am FOX

11 remaining games (schedule gets tougher as we progress thru the season):
3-1 Next four; we need one road win to get there
2-2 Middle four; four tough games here, and two quality wins required to finish at .500
1-2 Final three games; Michigan at home is the most likely win

6-5 To finish out the season, leaves us at 20-11 overall heading into the BTT.

2-1 in the Tournament leaves us at 22-12 and probably a 6 or 7 seed.
 
#34      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Are all quad 1 wins treated equally? We have 2 top 10 wins do those get more weight than an away win against number 75

Those two wins should stand out for us, yes. The committee looks at overall record vs. Q1 but I believe they also dive in to the specific wins and losses. The fact that those are both top-10 and neutral-site wins helps even more.
 
#35      
Have we ever.been a 6/7 seed? I don’t remember if we have? I know we have been 1,4,5,8,9,11 but I can’t remember us being 2,3 or 6,7?
 
#36      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
Have we ever.been a 6/7 seed? I don’t remember if we have? I know we have been 1,4,5,8,9,11 but I can’t remember us being 2,3 or 6,7?
Yes, and actually recently for 7 seed (first year under Groce in 2013). 6 seed in 1993 and 1997 under Henson and Kruger, respectively.

2 seed in 1984 (before expanded tourney); 3 seed in 1987 and 1988.


Based on what I see going back to 1980, we have not been the 10 seed in the tourney, and of course 13-16 seed (since that is not really possible).
 
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#38      
@ Wisconsin and @ Iowa will both be difficult games, but the most important thing for these next two week is to NOT drop home games against Nebraska or Minnesota. Do that and you can basically guarantee that Illinois won't have a "bad" loss on its resume come March (I expect Michigan to rise in the NET by season end, they are a better team than Net #77 indicates). UCLA and Texas are still 5 and 8 in NET, so those are great wins. We have 11 games until the Conference Tournament. Just take care of business, win games at home (which are very winnable games) or 5 overall (if you drop a game or two at home) and should be very comfortable for making the field. A 7 seed certainly looks likely but there is still a lot of opportunity to improve. I think Sweet 16 is an achievable goal for this team, but of course a lot comes down to the draw.
 
#39      
Call me crazy but I still think there's a chance we go into March with 5 or 6 Big Ten losses.

2nd place in the Big Ten is probably only worth a 4 seed at best this year though. Probably closer to a 5 or 6.
 
#42      
Big10 is absolutely horrible this year. I can't remember standings 2nd to last place literally around 500. conference records. I think this 5 game stretch is massive towards our season.
Welcome Nicco, get fletched and good luck.
 
#43      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
Big10 is absolutely horrible this year. I can't remember standings 2nd to last place literally around 500. conference records. I think this 5 game stretch is massive towards our season.
Welcome Nicco, get fletched and good luck.
Disagree. It just means that the B1G is not really top heavy. It is Purdue, then a pack of 9-11 teams, rounded out by Nebraska and Minnesota. If B1G was that horrible, 10 teams would not be projected to make the field.

Though Michigan and Iowa do have a terrible Q4 loss at home to CMU and Eastern Illinois, respectively.
 
#44      

PizzaHutParkingLot

McPherson, KS
Sat, Jan 28at Wisconsin2:00pm FOX
Tue, Jan 31Nebraska6:00pm BTN
Sat, Feb 4at Iowa1:30pm FOX
Tue, Feb 7Minnesota7:30pm BTN
Sat, Feb 11Rutgers1:00pm FS1
Tue, Feb 14at Penn State6:00pm ESPN/2/U
Sat, Feb 18at Indiana11:00am ESPN/2
Thu, Feb 23Northwestern8:00pm BTN
Sun, Feb 26at Ohio State11:00am CBS
Thu, Mar 2Michigan6:00pm ESPN
Sun, Mar 5at Purdue11:30am FOX

11 remaining games (schedule gets tougher as we progress thru the season):
3-1 Next four; we need one road win to get there
2-2 Middle four; four tough games here, and two quality wins required to finish at .500
1-2 Final three games; Michigan at home is the most likely win

6-5 To finish out the season, leaves us at 20-11 overall heading into the BTT.

2-1 in the Tournament leaves us at 22-12 and probably a 6 or 7 seed.
My homer prediction is that the guys continue to gel and we finish the year 8-3 / 7-4
(Losing one of Wisconsin/Iowa, Rutgers and @ Purdue)

Then earning a 5 seed in the tournament, but with the way the year's gone who knows 🤷‍♀️
 
#45      
Disagree. It just means that the B1G is not really top heavy. It is Purdue, then a pack of 9-11 teams, rounded out by Nebraska and Minnesota. If B1G was that horrible, 10 teams would not be projected to make the field.

Though Michigan and Iowa do have a terrible Q4 loss at home to CMU and Eastern Illinois, respectively.
Exactly, the Big 10 is NOT horrible. It's ranked 2nd in the NET (the Big XII is running away with "best conference" and the Big Ten and SEC are locked pretty tight with each other for second). Outside of Purdue, the conference is just very deep and lacks a 2nd "really good" team.

KP Ranks: 5, 17, 20, 21, 26, 35, 36, 39, 43, 51, 60, 63, 94, 191

The name of the game right now for the Big Ten teams that didn't screw up out of conference is to NOT lose to Nebraska and (ESPECIALLY) Minnesota. Everyone else is both a solid win for the resume and not a terrible loss. This is likely an 8-10 bid league.
 
#46      
Yes, and actually recently for 7 seed (first year under Groce in 2013). 6 seed in 1993 and 1997 under Henson and Kruger, respectively.

2 seed in 1984 (before expanded tourney); 3 seed in 1987 and 1988.


Based on what I see going back to 1980, we have not been the 10 seed in the tourney, and of course 13-16 seed (since that is not really possible).
Thanks for doing the research for me, I really could not remember that and I should as I am old :)
 
#47      
Call me crazy but I still think there's a chance we go into March with 5 or 6 Big Ten losses.

2nd place in the Big Ten is probably only worth a 4 seed at best this year though. Probably closer to a 5 or 6.
If we did this, we would be a 3 seed
 
#48      

Bigtex

DFW
Have we ever.been a 6/7 seed? I don’t remember if we have? I know we have been 1,4,5,8,9,11 but I can’t remember us being 2,3 or 6,7?
Lost to austin peay when we were a 2 seed
 
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