Illini Basketball 2022-2023

[fuggles]

Would like to see this graphic when adjusted by minutes played. Harris and Rodgers would likely be up there next to Hawkins?*

*Disclaimer: No math was performed in the creation of this post.

There is an advanced metric on sports-reference.com that is similar to what you are asking for. Its called BPM. And the top players in order are MM, TSJ, DD, CH, LG, SH, RJ, JE.

 

[Ramrod2010]

I'd love to see for the last few games only. I'm sure RJ's +/- would look much better.

Using the 2nd Northwestern game as the starting point RJ leads the team in BPM (basically, from my understanding, plus/minus over 100 possessions - using sport-reference) at 34.3 totalled over the last four games.

Hawk is 2nd at 25.6, Goode is 3rd at 21.8 (small sample size).

 

[21ChampaignSt]

I don't know for sure about recent games, but I figure RJ has been trending up and Epps/Dainja trending down. I've also noticed from just watching that almost every lineup we have with Hawkins-Rodgers-Harris seems to be involved in our big second half runs and this might confirm it to some degree.

I think Jayden's slump has been a little exaggerated. It's true that he has hit a shooting slump (37% over the last 10 games), but he's also given us 11 pts, 2 a, 2 rbs, and 1 TO per game in that same span.

2 assists feels a little low for a "pg" but there aren't really a lot of assists to go around on this team to start with.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

RE: Those 3-point percentage by year statistics that Dan has on the home page (and I cannot seem to find in this thread, where it's linked to), a few thoughts:

- I literally cannot even bring myself to imagine that we shot 40% from three in 2005. How frickin' cool does that sounds? Lmao. Makes it even more of a heartbreaker that we only shot 30% (and like 0% in our final 6 attempts) in the National Championship.
- I do remember our incredibly frustrating 2011 team shooting really well from three; even Tisdale could hit! I also remember a lot of Fake Comebacks in general in that era where we'd start making wild threes to cut the lead and make it close, even though it was too late.
- I'm surprised how bad our 2020 team shot it. I remember us not being great at threes that year, but I don't remember being quite as frustrated with that aspect of our game as I am with this year's team. I guess that goes to show you that if the rest of your offense is humming along and doesn't go into funks as often, you won't notice it as much.
- Also kind of surprised that the 2021 team shot the three better than the 2022 team ... in my MIND, at least, I remember Grandison and Frazier shooting it even better in 2022 than 2021, and obviously Plummer was a HUGE addition in that regard.

 

[Epsilon]

RE: Those 3-point percentage by year statistics that Dan has on the home page (and I cannot seem to find in this thread, where it's linked to), a few thoughts:

- I literally cannot even bring myself to imagine that we shot 40% from three in 2005. How frickin' cool does that sounds? Lmao. Makes it even more of a heartbreaker that we only shot 30% (and like 0% in our final 6 attempts) in the National Championship.
- I do remember our incredibly frustrating 2011 team shooting really well from three; even Tisdale could hit! I also remember a lot of Fake Comebacks in general in that era where we'd start making wild threes to cut the lead and make it close, even though it was too late.
- I'm surprised how bad our 2020 team shot it. I remember us not being great at threes that year, but I don't remember being quite as frustrated with that aspect of our game as I am with this year's team. I guess that goes to show you that if the rest of your offense is humming along and doesn't go into funks as often, you won't notice it as much.
- Also kind of surprised that the 2021 team shot the three better than the 2022 team ... in my MIND, at least, I remember Grandison and Frazier shooting it even better in 2022 than 2021, and obviously Plummer was a HUGE addition in that regard.

The 2019-2020 team got to the rim much more effectively. That’s probably why it doesn’t stick out so much. Here’s the roster.

2019-20 Illinois Fighting Illini Men's Roster and Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the detailed 2019-20 Illinois Fighting Illini Roster and Stats for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

 

[Butters]

RE: Those 3-point percentage by year statistics that Dan has on the home page (and I cannot seem to find in this thread, where it's linked to), a few thoughts:

- I literally cannot even bring myself to imagine that we shot 40% from three in 2005. How frickin' cool does that sounds? Lmao. Makes it even more of a heartbreaker that we only shot 30% (and like 0% in our final 6 attempts) in the National Championship.
- I do remember our incredibly frustrating 2011 team shooting really well from three; even Tisdale could hit! I also remember a lot of Fake Comebacks in general in that era where we'd start making wild threes to cut the lead and make it close, even though it was too late.
- I'm surprised how bad our 2020 team shot it. I remember us not being great at threes that year, but I don't remember being quite as frustrated with that aspect of our game as I am with this year's team. I guess that goes to show you that if the rest of your offense is humming along and doesn't go into funks as often, you won't notice it as much.
- Also kind of surprised that the 2021 team shot the three better than the 2022 team ... in my MIND, at least, I remember Grandison and Frazier shooting it even better in 2022 than 2021, and obviously Plummer was a HUGE addition in that regard.

I think it was also less noticeable because we didn't take so many 3's in 2020, 566 vs 722 this year. Shooting that bad percentage isn't nearly so damaging if you are doing it that many fewer times.

 

[STATS GUY]

So apparently Deon said Sencire is a more athletic Luther Head. I know Deon is more familiar with the team than likely any of us, but I wonder if he remembered that Luther was a 1st team All Big Ten and 2nd Team All American player, as well as a 1st round draft pick.

Now after I shook off the absurdity of the remark, I looked up the stats:

Sencire: 3.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 0.9 apg, 41.7% FG, 29.7% 3 pt, 23.5% FT (what the heck is up with the FTs Sencire? I think there's a fair chance I could kick them in at that rate)

Luther: 4.5 ppg, 1.9 rbg, 1.7 apg, 68.1% FG, 29.1% 3 pt, 56% FT

So as Fr, they really are comparable. Luther was playing with an injury that probably took away some of his athleticism, but the big thing is Luther really took a jump in his shooting between Fr. and Soph year. Jumped up to 74% FT and 42% 3 pt. Ended his career as a 75% FT shooter and 38% from 3. So when you take into account Luther's whole career the comparison does become a bit more out there.

That said, if Sencire can make a similar jump and add some offense, he's a monster. Luther did benefit from an outstanding team. As good as he was, he was the #3 guy on most scouting reports. My biggest concern with Sencire is his shot does not look good. It is very flat. He needs a shot doctor to work with him in the offseason. In fact our entire Fr class could use some shooting help.

Yes We need some instruction on shooting technique World class athletes that could use some 'Rim Flips'

 

[Godard]

MSN

Spot on.

Hmmm...a lot of [heads ranching...thanks spellcheck: it's *head-scratching*] invited here: 2-2 on neutral court? Uh...remind me who we beat in those two wins again...; "-gate" used as a suffix fifty years after Nixon? And "fartgate?" Did I miss something? (Apparently I did...but why oh why can't we call it "fartghazi?"); and we don't do well at speed? Tell that to the team that came back against Texas when it looked like we were dead and buried.

Hey...at least one writer said we'd finish 7th in the B1G, and that writer was right! We replaced too many key parts...and we still earned a bye in the first day of the BTT. Small steps equal progress, great expectations thwart it.

Sencerely,
A fan.

 

[GrayGhost77]

Using the 2nd Northwestern game as the starting point RJ leads the team in BPM (basically, from my understanding, plus/minus over 100 possessions - using sport-reference) at 34.3 totalled over the last four games.

Hawk is 2nd at 25.6, Goode is 3rd at 21.8 (small sample size).

Thanks for figuring it out. I suspected he'd be much better, but impressive that he's leading the team during that stretch!

 

[Illinicpa14]

I tried doing the math. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but per 40 min in conference play I get:

Hawkins: +5.48

Epps: +5.42

Harris: +4.84

Shannon: +3.41

Rodgers: +3.26

Mayer: +2.56

Dainja: -1.39

Goode: -2.47

Melendez: -3.17

Clark: -15.42

I don't know for sure about recent games, but I figure RJ has been trending up and Epps/Dainja trending down. I've also noticed from just watching that almost every lineup we have with Hawkins-Rodgers-Harris seems to be involved in our big second half runs and this might confirm it to some degree.

Do any of these efficiency stats take into account who specifically is on the other side? I agree with your sentiment but also when you come in at the 14 minute mark, you typically are going against either other backups or starters likely more fatigued.

 

[illiniballknower]

Using the 2nd Northwestern game as the starting point RJ leads the team in BPM (basically, from my understanding, plus/minus over 100 possessions - using sport-reference) at 34.3 totalled over the last four games.

Hawk is 2nd at 25.6, Goode is 3rd at 21.8 (small sample size).

Just for reference BPM does not contain plus minus, it is a stat, that stands for Box Plus Minus (I know, that's confusing because it doesn't contain plus minus), that weights different box score stats per 100 possessions and outputs a number that is an estimate of the amount of points a player adds per 100 possessions over an average player.

 

[WhiteHorseWings]

Just for reference BPM does not contain plus minus, it is a stat, that stands for Box Plus Minus (I know, that's confusing because it doesn't contain plus minus), that weights different box score stats per 100 possessions and outputs a number that is an estimate of the amount of points a player adds per 100 possessions over an average player.

One can only hope that someday there will be more analyses of statistics.

 

[MustangWally]

Illinois is as combustible as it is irresistible. The perfect team for madness

"This team believes," Brad Underwood insists, but a season of uneven results suggests we don't know what's next for the Illini.

theathletic.com

Pay site?

 

[spillini]

Pay site?

They have a $2/mo deal fwiw

 

[Ransom Stoddard]

Great interview with Hawkins from the Alumni newsletter. He talks a lot about his connection to the university as well as his family.

Rooted in the Game

For Coleman Hawkins, Fighting Illini power forward, family is at the heart of everything.

storied.illinois.edu

 

[Chad Fleck]

The 2019-2020 team got to the rim much more effectively. That’s probably why it doesn’t stick out so much. Here’s the roster.

2019-20 Illinois Fighting Illini Men's Roster and Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the detailed 2019-20 Illinois Fighting Illini Roster and Stats for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

We also didn't have nearly as high of expectations because the previous number of years sucked. Therefore, winning at all was wonderful.

Now we have tasted success for a few years in a row and we want more of it. As evidenced by how many have publicly proclaimed their completion with this team for the year.

 

[InDaAZ]

Great interview with Hawkins from the Alumni newsletter. He talks a lot about his connection to the university as well as his family.

Rooted in the Game

For Coleman Hawkins, Fighting Illini power forward, family is at the heart of everything.

storied.illinois.edu

That was a great peek at the person who is Coleman Hawkins.

There is a reason some of us get so passionate about defending the young men who don the O & B, and who give their all to the program. That reason is why I started posting here a couple of years ago after being just a reader since the early days - to add positivity and perspective… that, and to inject my brand of humor into the group discussion!

Many posters would do well to pause before hitting the “Post reply.” Stop and think: Does the comment add value to the general discussion, or are you just venting from a place of personal negativity.

As this little bio of Coleman exemplifies, these are real people who are just living their lives the best they can with the tools they’ve been given. They can and do make mistakes and poor decisions - just like all of us have, especially when we were young.

It’s one thing to criticize a play or a pattern of play, a dumb action or whatever. But the line is crossed when a comment is mean-spirited, over the top, or casts doubt on someone’s character and motives.

I’ve been guilty of edging up to that line when posting about opposing players, coaches and fanbases. I endeavor to keep it light-hearted and in good humor, but will try to be kinder going forward -

to take that…


…pause…


…before sending my thoughts out into the ether.

 

[john1952]

So apparently Deon said Sencire is a more athletic Luther Head. I know Deon is more familiar with the team than likely any of us, but I wonder if he remembered that Luther was a 1st team All Big Ten and 2nd Team All American player, as well as a 1st round draft pick.

Now after I shook off the absurdity of the remark, I looked up the stats:

Sencire: 3.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 0.9 apg, 41.7% FG, 29.7% 3 pt, 23.5% FT (what the heck is up with the FTs Sencire? I think there's a fair chance I could kick them in at that rate)

Luther: 4.5 ppg, 1.9 rbg, 1.7 apg, 68.1% FG, 29.1% 3 pt, 56% FT

So as Fr, they really are comparable. Luther was playing with an injury that probably took away some of his athleticism, but the big thing is Luther really took a jump in his shooting between Fr. and Soph year. Jumped up to 74% FT and 42% 3 pt. Ended his career as a 75% FT shooter and 38% from 3. So when you take into account Luther's whole career the comparison does become a bit more out there.

That said, if Sencire can make a similar jump and add some offense, he's a monster. Luther did benefit from an outstanding team. As good as he was, he was the #3 guy on most scouting reports. My biggest concern with Sencire is his shot does not look good. It is very flat. He needs a shot doctor to work with him in the offseason. In fact our entire Fr class could use some shooting help.

Luther was about as smooth as they come. Electro-glide in orange

 

[Roundball Sage]

There is something that the Illini Staff should look at every day right now and in the off season and ponder. For example, now that the Dance will soon be starting, just where do the Illini stand with regard to States bordering on Illinois?

The AP Poll right now has:
5) Purdue
6) Marquette
19) Indiana
23) Kentucky
25) Missouri

In other words, Illinois is surrounded by 5 programs that are currently ranked higher by AP.

And the NET Poll right now:
5) Purdue
12) Marquette
21) Iowa State
26) Kentucky
27) Indiana

34) Illini

A person running a business might say, ‘Why are our closest (in distance) competitors doing better than we are? What can we do about that!?

Having all these Border Programs ahead of the Illini is 'NOT ACCEPTABLE'.

How about it, Illini? Does this qualify as Program Billboard Motivation Material?

 

[NarrowJ]

There is something that the Illini Staff should look at every day right now and in the off season and ponder. For example, now that the Dance will soon be starting, just where do the Illini stand with regard to States bordering on Illinois?

The AP Poll right now has:
5) Purdue
6) Marquette
19) Indiana
23) Kentucky
25) Missouri

In other words, Illinois is surrounded by 5 programs that are currently ranked higher by AP.

And the NET Poll right now:
5) Purdue
12) Marquette
21) Iowa State
26) Kentucky
27) Indiana

34) Illini

A person running a business might say, ‘Why are our closest (in distance) competitors doing better than we are? What can we do about that!?

Having all these Border Programs ahead of the Illini is 'NOT ACCEPTABLE'.

How about it, Illini? Does this qualify as Program Billboard Motivation Material?

I agree. No other programs within a 2 state proximity should have more success than us in any season, especially a down year where we lost 90% of our production. What we need to do is get Durant, Doncic and a few other dudes that have eligibility remaining and then we can have Josh schedule only these teams all season so that we can make sure they never win a game, ever.

On a more serious note, there are a lot of very good college basketball programs in the Midwest. It's a down year for us, so this will happen. I'm not sure there is anything to read into here other than we had a mediocre-to-down year and there are some great teams within our geographical region. That's it.

 

[pruman91]

Well , Iowa St and UK both lost last night so I don't get all the woe is me intent to the above post, but thats just me , I guess......And also , the premise used was just a one season blip , not a trend...........How often in the last 5 years was this the norm ???.......To single out one year against the AYO and KOFI years is conveniently misleading , IMHO.........

I agree , as of right now , the stats posted are accurate ....But only for this year .......is this reason to be concerned ??....Maybe.....
With Hansberry and Dra in tow next year and Mr. Johnson the next year , not even considering the pickups from the portal , I am not as concerned as most .........I guess I have complete faith in BU and staff and our returning players with the future players also to not go off on a tangent..........

UK fans are wanting Cal gone B4 the NCAA's..................If Texas underperforms in the dance and cal loses his first round game , he might look harder at a move to austin city Limits ......just sayin, Just me Humblin Opines......

 

[IlliniShelt]

There is something that the Illini Staff should look at every day right now and in the off season and ponder. For example, now that the Dance will soon be starting, just where do the Illini stand with regard to States bordering on Illinois?

The AP Poll right now has:
5) Purdue
6) Marquette
19) Indiana
23) Kentucky
25) Missouri

In other words, Illinois is surrounded by 5 programs that are currently ranked higher by AP.

And the NET Poll right now:
5) Purdue
12) Marquette
21) Iowa State
26) Kentucky
27) Indiana

34) Illini

A person running a business might say, ‘Why are our closest (in distance) competitors doing better than we are? What can we do about that!?

Having all these Border Programs ahead of the Illini is 'NOT ACCEPTABLE'.

How about it, Illini? Does this qualify as Program Billboard Motivation Material?

Pretty sure the success of these programs has zero impact on the motivation levels within our program.

 

[pruman91]

Pretty sure the success of these programs has zero impact on the motivation levels within our program.

Thank you bro..........the rush to judgment is sudden by some here , but not realistic , IMHO...............

 

[Illini in Italy]

There is something that the Illini Staff should look at every day right now and in the off season and ponder. For example, now that the Dance will soon be starting, just where do the Illini stand with regard to States bordering on Illinois?

The AP Poll right now has:
5) Purdue
6) Marquette
19) Indiana
23) Kentucky
25) Missouri

In other words, Illinois is surrounded by 5 programs that are currently ranked higher by AP.

And the NET Poll right now:
5) Purdue
12) Marquette
21) Iowa State
26) Kentucky
27) Indiana

34) Illini

A person running a business might say, ‘Why are our closest (in distance) competitors doing better than we are? What can we do about that!?

Having all these Border Programs ahead of the Illini is 'NOT ACCEPTABLE'.

How about it, Illini? Does this qualify as Program Billboard Motivation Material?

Yeah, with all the wisdom usually exhibited in your posts, this is not of your better ones IMHO.

 

[pruman91]

Yeah, with all the wisdom usually exhibited in your posts, this is not of your better ones IMHO.

The use of the word ponder in his first sentence has taken me back to a time of mirth and merriment as I slip into that hypnotic trance of pondering wandering's............The spirit is willing and the flesh is willing , so here we go..................

Pondering is a serious business , whether it's billboards about the Illini's one down year or other ghosts in the machine...........I find pondering is a one lane freeway of fantasy and illusional brain firings........I'll take my pondering's every day and twice on Sunday's...........................just my humble pondering opinion................It really really is.....................