Pregame: Illinois vs Arkansas, Thursday, March 16th, 3:30pm CT, TBS
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KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
...I'm creeping death.
We really hate our coach don’t we
Only if he doesn't win Thursday.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
The grass is always greener to many. SMH.
Allegiant? Yikes.
Make it 25. Don’t want the game to come down to a last second shot.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
That stat about A&M coming back without any 3-pointers is crazy ... and it made me want to look at our games vs. Power Five opponents this year. In these games, we averaged 7 3-pointers made on 24 3-point attempts for a percentage of 29%.
FEWEST 3-POINT ATTEMPTS
W 78-60 at Minnesota: 5-16 (31%)
W 75-66 vs. Michigan State: 6-18 (33%)
W 97-87 vs. Michigan (2OT): 5-18 (28%)
W 79-69 vs. Wisconsin: 10-19 (53%)
MOST 3-POINT ATTEMPTS
W 73-44 vs. Syracuse: 11-39 (28%)
L 93-71 vs. Missouri (St. Louis): 7-31 (23%)
L 72-60 at Ohio State: 6-29 (21%)
W 72-56 vs. Nebraska: 5-29 (17%)
HIGHEST 3-POINT PERCENTAGE
W 79-69 vs. Wisconsin: 10-19 (53%) ... almost all CoHawk
W 79-70 vs. UCLA (Las Vegas): 12-25 (48%) ... almost all Shannon
W 10-23 vs. Texas (NYC): 10-23 (43%)
L 80-65 vs. Indiana: 8-19 (42%) ... goes to show what TJD did to us!
LOWEST 3-POINT PERCENTAGE
W 72-56 vs. Nebraska: 5-29 (17%)
W 69-60 vs. Ohio State: 5-28 (18%)
L 72-60 at Ohio State: 6-29 (21%)
L 93-71 vs. Missouri (St. Louis): 7-31 (23%)
Some pretty telling things here:
- In the four games where we shot the most threes, we did not shoot above our season average ONE time. Our only two wins were at home against objectively bad teams, and the other two outings were embarrassments.
- In the four games where we shot the least threes, we shot above our season average in every single one except for Michigan. Wisconsin was pretty clearly a fluke shooting-wise, but recall the wins against MSU and at Minnesota; they were two of our best performances all year, and some of the few times our offense seemed to really flow.
- All in all, when we take fewer than 24 3-pointers (below our season average), we shoot 33%. When we take more than 24 3-pointers (above our season average), we shoot 28%. Obviously BU and the staff analyze this way more than my novice Excel exercise, but it's pretty clear he's right that it is likely the TYPES of threes we are taking in the games where we are jacking them up the most often.
- We took more threes than our season average in every one of our worst 3-point percentage games. Conversely, we took FEWER than our season average in all four games where we shot it the best.
- With that said, there isn't a huge correlation with wins on either end of this spectrum, which probably doesn't surprise us. We can get hot from three and beat REALLY good teams, or we can (wisely) not rely on the three and beat teams in other ways that suit our strengths. It's when we ARE NOT hot from three and yet keep taking a lot of them that we have looked our absolute worst.
One last thing to maybe give us some optimism!
Away Games: 70-262 (27%);
Home Games: 74-234 (32%)
Neutral Games: 44-126 (35%)
Even against PSU in the BTT, we shot better than our season average on fewer attempts than we average. Here's to hoping this team just likes to play in a neutral gym on a big stage, PSU is actually really good right now and we play loose/relaxed against Arkansas and know that the way to beat them is NOT to shoot too many 3-pointers ... especially contested ones!
FEWEST 3-POINT ATTEMPTS
W 78-60 at Minnesota: 5-16 (31%)
W 75-66 vs. Michigan State: 6-18 (33%)
W 97-87 vs. Michigan (2OT): 5-18 (28%)
W 79-69 vs. Wisconsin: 10-19 (53%)
MOST 3-POINT ATTEMPTS
W 73-44 vs. Syracuse: 11-39 (28%)
L 93-71 vs. Missouri (St. Louis): 7-31 (23%)
L 72-60 at Ohio State: 6-29 (21%)
W 72-56 vs. Nebraska: 5-29 (17%)
HIGHEST 3-POINT PERCENTAGE
W 79-69 vs. Wisconsin: 10-19 (53%) ... almost all CoHawk
W 79-70 vs. UCLA (Las Vegas): 12-25 (48%) ... almost all Shannon
W 10-23 vs. Texas (NYC): 10-23 (43%)
L 80-65 vs. Indiana: 8-19 (42%) ... goes to show what TJD did to us!
LOWEST 3-POINT PERCENTAGE
W 72-56 vs. Nebraska: 5-29 (17%)
W 69-60 vs. Ohio State: 5-28 (18%)
L 72-60 at Ohio State: 6-29 (21%)
L 93-71 vs. Missouri (St. Louis): 7-31 (23%)
Some pretty telling things here:
- In the four games where we shot the most threes, we did not shoot above our season average ONE time. Our only two wins were at home against objectively bad teams, and the other two outings were embarrassments.
- In the four games where we shot the least threes, we shot above our season average in every single one except for Michigan. Wisconsin was pretty clearly a fluke shooting-wise, but recall the wins against MSU and at Minnesota; they were two of our best performances all year, and some of the few times our offense seemed to really flow.
- All in all, when we take fewer than 24 3-pointers (below our season average), we shoot 33%. When we take more than 24 3-pointers (above our season average), we shoot 28%. Obviously BU and the staff analyze this way more than my novice Excel exercise, but it's pretty clear he's right that it is likely the TYPES of threes we are taking in the games where we are jacking them up the most often.
- We took more threes than our season average in every one of our worst 3-point percentage games. Conversely, we took FEWER than our season average in all four games where we shot it the best.
- With that said, there isn't a huge correlation with wins on either end of this spectrum, which probably doesn't surprise us. We can get hot from three and beat REALLY good teams, or we can (wisely) not rely on the three and beat teams in other ways that suit our strengths. It's when we ARE NOT hot from three and yet keep taking a lot of them that we have looked our absolute worst.
One last thing to maybe give us some optimism!
Away Games: 70-262 (27%);
Home Games: 74-234 (32%)
Neutral Games: 44-126 (35%)
Even against PSU in the BTT, we shot better than our season average on fewer attempts than we average. Here's to hoping this team just likes to play in a neutral gym on a big stage, PSU is actually really good right now and we play loose/relaxed against Arkansas and know that the way to beat them is NOT to shoot too many 3-pointers ... especially contested ones!
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Spent 12+ hours in Indy Airport thanks to them. Never again.
Half expecting to get a fundraising e-mail from the DIA today asking us to cover bag fees. (I know, I know, it's a charter.)
If they jammed two Iowa teams in there(Iowa State/Drake/Iowa) the market would have resembled that of Birmingham. The NCAA gave Auburn a gift to make that happen.
Good analysis - I do think Brad gets this point and has been trying to get the team to get in the paint more by either directly pulling in the reins on some players or by calling for more actions that call for driving to the basket
A big part of our three point % is just having the right guys take them. I know all of the guys can make them, but some should only be taking wide open threes in the flow of the offense. TJ and Goode are the only ones who should be looking to pull the trigger more often than that.
I expect TJ to show up this game, it's the tournament, he's playing against 2 lottery picks, he has a lot to prove and a lot of money on the line based on his performance - if he isn't aggressive from the jump then he just doesn't have it in him. He has all the incentive in the world for this game. I expect him to play well
I think our fate will be more dictated based on how Mayer plays - he is 1 for his last 15 threes. That has to get better right? He'll have a height mismatch on whoever guards him so hopefully he takes them down low or drives in the lane and draws fouls. He could have a big game if they focus on TJ
People are ridiculous. They apparently forgot where our program was before BU got here. All that said, these same people would be freaking out if BU was being courted by Texas and was interested.
For upperclassmen there’s two ways to come in to a game like this:
‘Hey, this could be my last time on the college floor so I’m just going to have fun and enjoy the hell out of it!’
Or...
‘Hey, this could be my last time on the college floor! I don’t want it to be! Pressure, pressure... I feel pressure!’
We’ll soon find out who chooses which choice.
Side note: Illini Nation is also divided itself along these lines into these two choices of 'tight... or not'.
Big Jack
- Decatur
You know what they say...."You can't fix stupid"
>> It's when we ARE NOT hot from three and yet keep taking a lot of them that we have looked our absolute worst.
Quit with all the finger wagging at the supposed hate the coach stuff. The statement I just quoted sums up the entire season.
We've seen BU repeatedly use the descriptive "elite shooter" way too many times in pre- and post-game remarks.
Well, after Plummer graduated, we ain't got no elite shooters.
It's back to the old saw, "Why are you hitting yourself in the head with a hammer?"
"It feels good when I stop."
Quit with all the finger wagging at the supposed hate the coach stuff. The statement I just quoted sums up the entire season.
We've seen BU repeatedly use the descriptive "elite shooter" way too many times in pre- and post-game remarks.
Well, after Plummer graduated, we ain't got no elite shooters.
It's back to the old saw, "Why are you hitting yourself in the head with a hammer?"
"It feels good when I stop."
Bigtex
- DFW
good stuff
Please don't take the 25th 3 - % goes from 33% to 28% on that single miss
Had a 6 am flight scheduled from Tampa to Bloomington, flight departed at 6 pm, took them that long to find a replacement aircraft that was in a decent state of repiar. Should be named Shoestring Airways.
bravo! Love this information. Thanks for pulling it together.
I feel like this team has gotten the message that chucking 3's isn't necessarily their game. I do think you need to take it when certain people are open to keep the defense honest. However, a couple of the last broadcasts, it seems like they mentioned that BU said to drive the ball into the basket but instead, MM chucks a stepback 3. Hopefully that changes or he gets better at those.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yeah, again - it's the TYPE of threes we take! Equally frustrating, I feel we have gotten in our own heads lately and actually passed up some open threes to drive when it was not there. We are not a GOOD 3-point shooting team, but we also are not as inherently bad as the stats indicate, as we have taken a disproportionate number of shots that are just simply hard to make. We just need to take threes when they're there and don't force them when they're not.
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