Conference Realignment

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#76      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Slow day, so I thought I would post this, as I am going to try to keep really good track of it this year and it is related to conference realignment. These are the most viewed Big Ten games from last football season (in thousands) that were played on big/national channels (FOX, ABC, ESPN, etc.) that drew at least 2 million viewers, as .

17,137 for #3 Michigan at #2 Ohio State (11:00 am on FOX)
10,531 for #5 Notre Dame at #2 Ohio State (6:30 pm on ABC)
8,273 for #2 Ohio State at #13 Penn State (11:00 am on FOX)
6,599 for #2 Ohio State at Maryland (2:30 pm on ABC)
6,453 for #10 Penn State at #5 Michigan (11:00 am on FOX)
5,583 for Michigan State at #4 Michigan (6:30 pm on ABC)
5,470 for Illinois at #3 Michigan (11:00 am on ABC)
4,757 for #2 Ohio State at Northwestern (11:00 am on ABC)
4,587 for Wisconsin at #3 Ohio State (6:30 pm on ABC)
4,439 for #3 Ohio State at Michigan State (3:00 pm on ABC)
4,419 for Nebraska vs. Northwestern in Dublin, Ireland (11:30 am on FOX - Week Zero)
4,378 for Maryland at #4 Michigan (11:00 am on FOX)
4,377 for Iowa at #2 Ohio State (11:00 am on FOX)
4,198 for #4 Michigan at Iowa (11:00 am on FOX)
4,054 for #22 Penn State at Auburn (2:30 pm on CBS)
4,005 for #4 Michigan at Indiana (11:00 am on FOX)
3,929 for Colorado Stat at #8 Michigan (11:00 am on ABC)
3,920 for Washington State at #19 Wisconsin (2:30 pm on FOX)
3,876 for Nebraska at #3 Michigan (2:30 pm on ABC)
3,537 for Minnesota at #16 Penn State (6:30 pm on ABC)
3,512 for Penn State at Purdue (Thursday at 7:00 pm on FOX)
3,414 for #6 Oklahoma at Nebraska (11:00 am on FOX)
3,339 for Indiana at #2 Ohio State (11:00 am on FOX)
3,048 for Toledo at #3 Ohio State (
2,791 for #11 Michigan State at Washington (6:30 pm on ABC)
2,496 for Iowa at Minnesota (3:00 pm on FOX)
2,488 for #17 Illinois at Nebraska (2:30 pm on ABC)
2,452 for Wisconsin at Michigan State (3:00 pm on FOX)
2,228 for #16 Penn State at Indiana (2:30 pm on ABC)
2,057 for UConn at #4 Michigan (11:00 am on ABC)

A Couple Notes...
- Holy smokes to that Michigan/OSU game ... it drew 7 million more than the Big Ten Championship Game the following week!
- While it's obvious certain teams (Michigan, OSU, PSU) get great ratings because they have massive followings, you also want to play in the right time slots ... 5 of the top 6 are either Big Noon Kickoff (11:00 am on FOX) or College Gameday's traditional slot (6:30 pm on ABC).
- On that note, ZERO Big Ten games on ESPN drew over 2 million, even with name opponents.
- BTN is a ratings killer no matter who is playing. It's easy to look at Illinois/Indiana on BTN drawing 965k and say it is a bad rating, but Michigan/Rutgers only drew marginally more (1.29 million), and Penn State/Rutgers actually drew less. Another comparison is that Illinois drew 512k for Wyoming compared to Penn State's 628k vs. Central Michigan, both on BTN ... you cannot make TOO much of a conclusion about the "ratings ceiling" of a team based on a small sample size, because whatever team is on the big-time channels will draw more, and the better teams get on those channels. Illinois does pretty well when given the chance. On that note...
- A lazy "average viewers per team" list would have Illinois at 1.24 million and Indiana at 1.46 million; are there more IU fans than Illinois fans? Well, if you remove Indiana's games vs. PSU, Michigan or OSU, their average rating is 598k per game, lol. If you do the same for Illinois, it is 811k per game, and Illinois had to play Chattanooga on a Thursday night (176k) and Virginia on the joke that is ESPNU (159k). When looking into the actual numbers, it's clear Illinois has many more viewers ... for example, we drew 5.5 million vs. Michigan at 11:00 am, and Indiana drew barely over 4 million. Indiana played once on ESPN 2 and drew 392k, and Illinois drew 835k. Illinois BTN conference games were never below 500k (and often were pushing 1 million), and Indiana hovered around 200-300k for many. Just an example.

I will be very curious what we can pull for the PSU game in that Big Noon Kickoff slot (especially if we can start 2-0!) and how it compares to other Big Noon Kickoff ratings/PSU's other games.
 
#77      

wpr

wpr
wpr
dgcrow said:
Me, too. About back then, ND led the Big 10 to believe it would join the conference if given a formal invitation. When that invitation was received, ND rejected it, basically stating that they were too good for the Big 10. Fine with me if the school is left out in the cold, realignment-wise.
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On second thought, I won't be petty. ND can play in the Big Ten.


Hockey only. 🏒
 
#78      

illinistephen

I
illinistephen
aaeismacgychel said:
Yeah, that's how I see it. A 10-2 Alabama, 11-1 Notre Dame, and hell, a 12-0 TCU all claiming the National Title. AP, Coaches, the defunct CFP committee, and dethawed BCS computers all awarding their national champion. It'd be straight up anarchy and I can't see the vast majority of college football fans wanting to go back to that. Plus non B10-SEC schools would balk at a D2 characterization and wouldn't accept it.

Interestingly if the B10 and SEC would do this in a few years they might have to slink back to the NCAA begging to be let back in, lol
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In 2017, UCF went undefeated and claimed a national championship. I don't think anyone really cared considering they played in the lowest rated NY6 bowl that year. College football playoff games average about 22M viewers. When a G5 team, Cincinnati, got a chance to play in the CFP in 2021 that game drew 16M viewers.
NY6 bowls in the CFP era average about 9.5 viewers. Put the token G5 school in a NY6 game and that games draws less than 7M on average.
A NY6 bowl in the CFP era has never achieved 10M viewers without having either a B10 or SEC team playing.
In the CFP era, only once has the highest rated NY6 bowl game not had a B10 team.

If I'm a TV exec going for ratings, I'm doing everything I can to get as many B10 and SEC teams as I can and am lowering the tv payout as the likelihood of the other schools playing goes up. Which in turn gives the B10 and SEC the leverage to place the terms of the playoff in their favor.
 
#79      

IlliniwekKDR

IlliniwekKDR
Colorado Springs, CO
IlliniwekKDR
wpr said:
On second thought, I won't be petty. ND can play in the Big Ten.


Hockey only. 🏒
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I'm still sour over the tease of D1 hockey at Illinois

The Office Jim GIF
 
#80      

Dkayak

D
Dkayak
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Slow day, so I thought I would post this, as I am going to try to keep really good track of it this year and it is related to conference realignment. These are the most viewed Big Ten games from last football season (in thousands) that were played on big/national channels (FOX, ABC, ESPN, etc.) that drew at least 2 million viewers, as .

A Couple Notes...
Click to expand...
Great work!
My take: It’s impossible to separate the team’s draw from the network and time slot effect.
 
#84      

Mr. Tibbs

Mr. Tibbs
southeast DuPage
Mr. Tibbs
ChiefGritty said:
So many different parties had an incentive to step up and make that happen and none of them did.

That's like Exhibit A of the Big Ten not caring about investing in the "non-revenue" sports for BTN purposes as I was complaining about earlier.
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isn’t hockey at least close to being revenue neutral at most B1G schools , or is it not close ?
 
#85      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Dkayak said:
Great work!
My take: It’s impossible to separate the team’s draw from the network and time slot effect.
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Yep! For anyone interested, here are the Illini games from last year ... as you can see, we do well in good slots, and we don't do well in terrible slots. Just like everyone else. The difference, in my very biased opinion, as that we have a larger "fan base ceiling" than most schools, and the fact we can draw as (relatively) well as we do after years and years of beating our fans down is impressive and speaks to this fact.

512k vs. Wyoming (3:00 pm on BTN)

965k at Indiana (Friday at 7:00 pm on FS1) ... actually pretty impressive given the time/channel.

159k vs. Virginia (3:00 pm on ESPNU) ... being on ESPNU is a death sentence in this regard.

176k vs. Chattanooga (7:30 pm on BTN) ... again, we literally drew more for a Thursday night game vs. Chattanooga than a Saturday vs. an ACC team?! ESPNU is a ratings graveyard.

573k at Wisconsin (11:00 am on BTN) ... surprisingly low rating.

855k vs. Iowa (6:30 pm on BTN) ... surprisingly high rating for BTN.

619k vs. Minnesota (11:00 am on BTN)

2.49 million at Nebraska (2:30 pm on ABC) ... finally a good channel!

928k vs. Michigan State (2:30 pm on BTN) ... good rating for this channel.

835k vs. Purdue (11:00 am on ESPN2) ... decent rating for an 11:00 am ESPN2 game.

5.47 million at Michigan (11:00 am on ABC) ... before anyone gives all the credit to Michigan, only their OSU game, primetime (6:30 pm on ABC) rivalry game vs. MSU and Big Noon Kickoff (11:00 am on FOX) game vs. PSU drew more. We outdrew their Big Noon Kickoff games vs. Maryland, Iowa and Indiana easily, we had over 1 million more viewers than their ABC game vs. Nebraska the previous week and we more than doubled their ABC game vs. UConn.

The last game vs. Northwestern is unavailable, as it shared a BTN slot with Indiana vs. Purdue. Either way, you see a clear uptick in our viewership once we appeared "for real," and that plays into my point - we indeed have an "untapped" fan base, and I do not need a study conducted to know that ... I have seen anecdotal proof of it living in Chicago for 4+ years and seeing casual fans hop on the bandwagon, and the massive size of our alumni base alone provides a high ceiling. We just need the chance to play on better channels and reengage fans who stopped caring, and we are starting to improve in both regards! The Big Noon Kickoff slot vs. Penn State and primetime NBC spot vs. Purdue should deliver good ratings, and we have multiple other games (vs. Wisconsin and at Iowa) that have a good shot of getting off of BTN/FS1.
 
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#90      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Joel Goodson said:
wut? you have a remote, right?
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I know exactly what he means, though. I am sure there are some blow-hards in Bristol, CT that don't even know Cubs/Cardinals and Dodgers/Giants are that big of rivalries, let alone that the fans of these teams (A) don't particularly care about Yankees/Red Sox and (B) absolutely consider their own rivalries as good or better. And I think we will start to see that increasingly from ESPN, as they act like the SEC is all that exists.

Now to your point? I don't care, because I have not watched one second of ESPN programming besides a game in literally a decade plus, haha.
 
#91      

Joel Goodson

Joel Goodson
ties will be resolved
Joel Goodson
spotter said:
The SEC is becoming the Red Sox vs. Yankees of college football.

TV is determined to shove SEC down our throats and make us love every minute of it.
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Fighter of the Nightman said:
I know exactly what he means, though. I am sure there are some blow-hards in Bristol, CT that don't even know Cubs/Cardinals and Dodgers/Giants are that big of rivalries, let alone that the fans of these teams (A) don't particularly care about Yankees/Red Sox and (B) absolutely consider their own rivalries as good or better. And I think we will start to see that increasingly from ESPN, as they act like the SEC is all that exists.

Now to your point? I don't care, because I have not watched one second of ESPN programming besides a game in literally a decade plus, haha.
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of course the network that owns the rights to broadcast a conference is going to be a shill for said conference. tale as old as time. that said, control is in the hands of the viewer
 
#93      

spotter

S
spotter
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I know exactly what he means, though. I am sure there are some blow-hards in Bristol, CT that don't even know Cubs/Cardinals and Dodgers/Giants are that big of rivalries, let alone that the fans of these teams (A) don't particularly care about Yankees/Red Sox and (B) absolutely consider their own rivalries as good or better. And I think we will start to see that increasingly from ESPN, as they act like the SEC is all that exists.

Now to your point? I don't care, because I have not watched one second of ESPN programming besides a game in literally a decade plus, haha.
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ESPN has a long history of this. They lost rights to the NHL and suddenly hockey doesn't exist in ESPN's world. ESPN got NASCAR coverage and suddenly the Indy 500 didn't exist.

Yes, you want to publicize games and sports you have paid the rights for, but ESPN takes it to annoying levels.
 
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