Pregame: Illinois at Purdue, Friday, January 5th, 7:30pm CT, FS1

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#203      

king dad runnerup

K
king dad runnerup
hoopsfan47 said:
From Brett Behrens tweet:


"Illinois has only beat a No. 1 ranked team three times in program history, 3-20 all time against No. 1 and they've all come at home: 2/7/13 vs. No. 1 Indiana 12/1/04 vs. No. 1 Wake Forest 1/11/79 vs. No. 1 Michigan St."

IIRC, that win in '79 resulted in the Illini getting to 17-0 and the #1 ranking...and the subsequent swoon into oblivion the rest of the season. I could be wrong.

Also, IIRC, I had seen MSU play in early Dec. After about 15 min. of play, I called my Dad to watch. I told him that this MSU team was the best I had ever seen and that they would win the NCAA title easily...which actually happened. It was simply Magic (see what I did there). We were all blessed to see the very first of the Magic/Bird tussles on the hardwood. Epic.
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Minor correction: In 1978-79, after winning the Kentucky Invitational at Rupp in December and opening conference play with two road wins, Illinois was 14-0 and primed to take on #1 MSU. Eddie Johnson's corner jumper at the buzzer (as I remember it watching from the C section behind the basket) moved the Illini to 15-0. Alas, two days later Illinois lost to Ohio State in OT to forfeit their shot at the #1 ranking. As you say, the Illini collapsed after that, winning just 4 of the final 15 games to finish unranked.
 
#206      

RabidDawgClassic

RabidDawgClassic
RabidDawgClassic
chrisRunner7 said:
I thought this was just your prediction, but then I looked it up... I can't believe they are favored by that much 🤷‍♂️
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I guessing the perception of the general betting public is that Purdue at home with Zach Edey will destroy a meek Terrence Shannonless Illinois team and Vegas set the line accordingly so there would be more Illinois bettors.
 
#208      

alaskaillini

A
alaskaillini
aaeismacgychel said:
While we're going to need a great game from Coleman, if Purdue decides to leave Ty unguarded (have Edey technically guarding him while staying in the paint), I think Guerrier will be our key to victory. You have Ty drive to the paint, which Edey will have to recognize and you have Guerrier hard cut to the paint for the dish and bucket as Zach tries to recover. As well, we're going to need Quincy to bang on the boards defensively and hold his own as Purdue is a fantastic offensive rebounding team as well. The second chance points they get are killer.

I would not be surprised if Amani gets high value tick in this one, especially if we get into foul trouble, similar to what Lieb did last year. I also could see Dain getting time when Edey is on the bench.

As for defending Purdue, we need to run them off the 3pt line for sure as they are loaded with sharpshooters. No easy threes. However, when they throw the ball into Edey, he does have struggles with turnovers against help defenders shooting in for quick double teams. While Justin Harmon scares me defensively against 3pt shooters, he has quick enough hands to pester Edey, so when he's on the court, he should pick his spots for quick doubles and force Edey to try to recognize it and pass out before turning the ball over. Overall, going to need a good game from everyone to take this down. Hope we can do it
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IF Edey guards Ty and stays in the paint, think we just use Ty to set pick for Goode, QC, Harmon, Domask at 3 pt line to give them open looks from 3.
 
#209      

GILL-INOIS

G
GILL-INOIS
chrisRunner7 said:
I thought this was just your prediction, but then I looked it up... I can't believe they are favored by that much 🤷‍♂️
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College basketball is fickle.......

Purdue has one of the best non-conference resumes in the nation. Wins against Xavier, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama and Arizona. They lose to Northwestern in OT on the road.

Majority of the line rests on how the Illini will perform without TSJ in a big game plus Purdue playing at home. Purdue has won every home game by double digits and haven't had to sweat yet. Hope the Illini hand Purdue a 2nd Big Ten loss :illinois:
 
#210      

DAM1298

D
DAM1298
chrisRunner7 said:
I thought this was just your prediction, but then I looked it up... I can't believe they are favored by that much 🤷‍♂️
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I can. They’re the #1 team in the country, at home, and we’re missing our best player. I feel pretty good about our odds with how we’re playing lately, but in rewatching highlights from the NU game I was struck by how awful their defense was. They made a ton of errors defensively that gave us easy shots, and I don’t think PU will make many of those mistakes.

They deserve the benefit of the doubt that they’ll kick our !!!. I hope we prove em wrong
 
#211      

LouHenson

LouHenson
LouHenson
king dad runnerup said:
Minor correction: In 1978-79, after winning the Kentucky Invitational at Rupp in December and opening conference play with two road wins, Illinois was 14-0 and primed to take on #1 MSU. Eddie Johnson's corner jumper at the buzzer (as I remember it watching from the C section behind the basket) moved the Illini to 15-0. Alas, two days later Illinois lost to Ohio State in OT to forfeit their shot at the #1 ranking. As you say, the Illini collapsed after that, winning just 4 of the final 15 games to finish unranked.
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Steve Lantner (our point guard got hurt, knee if I remember correctly?). And we went down the tubes from there. I think if I remember correctly we only won 3 games the rest of the year. That was Eddie Johnson and Mark Smith‘s team. It was really the start of Lou’s fully rebuilding the Illini. I was a senior at Champaign Central that year. It was a fun team and the in 1984 we were truly robbed of a final 4.
 
#213      

PtGd

P
PtGd
king dad runnerup said:
Minor correction: In 1978-79, after winning the Kentucky Invitational at Rupp in December and opening conference play with two road wins, Illinois was 14-0 and primed to take on #1 MSU. Eddie Johnson's corner jumper at the buzzer (as I remember it watching from the C section behind the basket) moved the Illini to 15-0. Alas, two days later Illinois lost to Ohio State in OT to forfeit their shot at the #1 ranking. As you say, the Illini collapsed after that, winning just 4 of the final 15 games to finish unranked.
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IIRC, PG Steve Lantner, got injured in the OSU game and was out for the season. We had no backup.
 
#215      

skyIdub

skyIdub
Winged Warrior
skyIdub
👀
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#216      

RML

R
RML
othawhitemeat said:
How do you do that when shady reffing takes over?
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I am guardedly optimistic about CoHawk guarding Edey. CoHawk has been elite lately in guarding without fouling. If we get Edey running a bit, then frustrated with the best one-on-one defense he's seen all year....

CoHawk does need to keep his cool when he gets called for a BS fouls.
 
#219      

PepeSilvia

P
PepeSilvia
lstewart53x3 said:
I’m not a hoops connoisseur. I’m a huge fan, but don’t fully understand the inner workings of the underlying strategy in each game.

Coleman’s technically our 5, so in theory Edey would guard him. But at the same time, Purdue wants Edey to live in the paint.

So could their strategy be to put another guy on Coleman, then put Edey on Ty and not guard Ty at the 3 point line since he’s not a threat to shoot?
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If Edey is guarding Ty then you just take free runs into Edey over and over again until he fouls out.

Honestly for as big of a issue as Edey can be he also can't slide his feet defensively. The illinois game plan should involve drawing him out and initiate some contact with him.
 
#223      

FromTheLogo

F
FromTheLogo
Too much Mackey. Turnovers will likely be high. I think we get behind and jack up too many rushed 3's instead of staying within the offense. Refs call ticky tacks on Coleman (vs Edey) and he mentally struggles. As much as it pains me to type it:

Illini: 72
Purdue: 80

I hope I'm wrong.
 
#225      

foby

foby
Bonnaroo Land
foby
FromTheLogo said:
Too much Mackey. Turnovers will likely be high. I think we get behind and jack up too many rushed 3's instead of staying within the offense. Refs call ticky tacks on Coleman (vs Edey) and he mentally struggles. As much as it pains me to type it:

Illini: 72
Purdue: 80

I hope I'm wrong.
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Last season, this would be correct. This team, highly unlikely.
 
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