Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
Matt Chapman and the offseason was a roaring success. Yes even without Bellinger
Chicago Cubs 2024
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
But wouldn't it be so fun to witness the greatest infield defense ever constructed??
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Well the thing is, Michael Busch's bat is very exciting, but his defense at first base projects to be passable at best.
Cody Bellinger on the other hand, moved to first in order to accommodate PCA's 80 glove in center field?
The sky is the limit, as well as the only place a batted ball would have to hide.
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
I'll take GG at 3b over an above average 1B though. We've also barely seen Busch at 1B, since he plays 3B and 2B more. Im confident he can more than handle his own at 1B, since it's the easiest of those 3 to play.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
These are all fine analytical points, but to loop back to your initial statement, I think either of Chapman or Bellinger would make the offseason grudgingly acceptable at most, I'd rather have Bellinger, and the aim should really be higher than just one of those guys.
The idea that eyes would turn to Pete Alonso if this free agent period ends with a whimper is patently absurd. There is no time in the Cubs current cycle of competitiveness that free agent dollars are going to be more favorably spent than right now.
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
Alright, fine, we will sign Cody too. Plus I like the added benefit in FA of paying our guys and not just letting them walk once they get expensive. And by all accounts the entire clubhouse loved him.
My analytics based mind is forcing itself to see through the numbers and notice the intangible benefits of bringing Cody back.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
At the end of the day with Bellinger, the only justification for the Cubs not winning this free agency is someone offering him a deal that's simply an insane valuation that isn't worth the risk, a truly bad contract for the signing team. And it seems clear at this point that such a market does not exist for him.
I'm totally patient with Bellinger and Boras taking their time in vain hope of an overpay, that is their right and Boras has pulled rabbits out of his hat in the past. All's well that ends well. But if Bellinger signs elsewhere I will be furious.
bdutts
- Houston, Texas
I'll bite: What would be a "fair" contract for both the player and the team?
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
An ESPN (paywalled) projection from yesterday had 7 years, $147 million.
Ranking the top MLB free agents STILL available
It's mid-February, and players have begun to report to spring training camps. How the heck are these guys still out there, and where do they fit best?
Brandon Nimmo got 8/162 last year with a vaguely similar profile.
The Cubs signed Dansby Swanson for 7/177 last year as well.
I'm sure the Cubs would be willing to do something shorter term in exchange for a higher AAV than that, not sure whether it would interest Bellinger though.
In terms of what would be a crazy and bad contract, double digit years, a $200M+ guarantee, or as is always a risk with Boras, something where Bellinger can become a free agent again soon if things go well, but the Cubs are left holding a massive albatross if they don't.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
It may be that the hold up here is because the marketplace is thinking exactly that and no one will offer Bellinger the years he wants. I am certain Jed Hoyer will only go to 6-7 if he absolutely has to and would much rather go sky high with the AAV and/or get creative with opt-outs.
And it really is weird that Scott Boras now controls almost the entire remaining value on the market. He has total knowledge of the landscape whereas the teams don't. But that definitely introduces conflicts of interest, if he can push a team higher, does that ruin the market for one of his other guys? It's quite a staredown.
But with the possible exception of the Angels (who are DEFINITELY a suitor Boras is counting on to make a characteristically irrational FA overpay), there's no team in baseball who have more money burning a hole in their pocket than the Cubs. They badly need another good player or two and it would be a slap in the fans face not to go get them.
This probably won't happen but I'd love to see all of Boras' clients having to settle for one year pillow contracts because he was stubborn and waited too long. And three of his four guys getting new agents for next year.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Too early to say conclusively, but it does feel like Boras might have bitten off a bit more than he can chew here.This probably won't happen but I'd love to see all of Boras' clients having to settle for one year pillow contracts because he was stubborn and waited too long. And three of his four guys getting new agents for next year.
Now, the combined effect of the luxury tax and the expanded playoff is legalized collusion and that's ugly and anti-fan and horrible for the sport, but the CBA is what it is, the players signed it, Boras' job is to play the hand he's dealt and get his guys paid.
I have a hard time seeing Blake Snell doing better than the 6/162 he reportedly turned down from the Yankees, for instance.
Spring training is starting. So, in one sense the offseason is over.
On the other hand, according to MLB Trade Rumors, of their top 50 free agents, their numbers 2, 4, 6, 7, 20, 30, 34, 38, 39, 40, 45, 49 and 50 free agents are all still available. That’s a quarter of the top 50. So, in that respect there’s still a good chunk of quality talent out there to be had.
The Cubs have signed numbers 10 and 46, lost numbers 2 (for the time being) and 18, while also trading a couple teenagers for a MLB-ready consensus top-100 prospect at a position of need. As maddeningly frustrating as it is to say on February 14, the Cubs’ offseason could still be anything from underwhelming to fantastic.
On the other hand, according to MLB Trade Rumors, of their top 50 free agents, their numbers 2, 4, 6, 7, 20, 30, 34, 38, 39, 40, 45, 49 and 50 free agents are all still available. That’s a quarter of the top 50. So, in that respect there’s still a good chunk of quality talent out there to be had.
The Cubs have signed numbers 10 and 46, lost numbers 2 (for the time being) and 18, while also trading a couple teenagers for a MLB-ready consensus top-100 prospect at a position of need. As maddeningly frustrating as it is to say on February 14, the Cubs’ offseason could still be anything from underwhelming to fantastic.
KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
And 2, 4, 6 and 7 are all Boras clients. It seems like the Cubs (and others) are waiting to see if he'll actually blink first.
bdutts
- Houston, Texas
I'm in this camp.
I hope Boras enjoys his last contract negotiation for Montgomery.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I can see the logic of trying to set the benchmark with Snell who is the sexier but riskier asset. And Boras clients know who they're signing with, they want to get paid, not to sign early or play nice.
But still, yeah, risky maneuvers going on.
It is ultimately incumbent on the players to make the decisions though, Boras is not lying in that regard. If they would rather have the longer term security of a deal that doesn't set new records rather than some complicated opt-out arrangement to save Boras' public image, they have that choice.
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
I tend to side with the players in these things, but when the top 5 remaining free agents are all represented by the same person, it’s hard not to see that as the common factor.
In Bellinger’s case, I’ve thought that the George Springer and Brandon Nimmo contracts were reasonable comps. I still think that’s about where he ends up. 6/$160-ish.
In Montgomery’s case, a bit more than what Taillon got seems fair. Same age, same mileage, slightly better aggregate stats. 4/$80, 5/$95. Somewhere around there.
JD Martinez should be easy. 1/$15. Have to think Boras is trying to get Bellinger and Chapman signed before him.
Snell is such a unique pitcher that it’s much harder to set a market for him. The guy is just as likely to give you 180 innings of sub-2.00 ERA as he is to give you 130 innings of 4.00 ERA. Who knows.
Chapman is similar in that it’s hard to find a comparison. He’s as good as it gets with the glove, but merely above average with the bat despite some great peripherals that suggest he could be better. Dansby Swanson might be the best comp, but older and at a position where defense is less a priority. So maybe 6/$140.
In Bellinger’s case, I’ve thought that the George Springer and Brandon Nimmo contracts were reasonable comps. I still think that’s about where he ends up. 6/$160-ish.
In Montgomery’s case, a bit more than what Taillon got seems fair. Same age, same mileage, slightly better aggregate stats. 4/$80, 5/$95. Somewhere around there.
JD Martinez should be easy. 1/$15. Have to think Boras is trying to get Bellinger and Chapman signed before him.
Snell is such a unique pitcher that it’s much harder to set a market for him. The guy is just as likely to give you 180 innings of sub-2.00 ERA as he is to give you 130 innings of 4.00 ERA. Who knows.
Chapman is similar in that it’s hard to find a comparison. He’s as good as it gets with the glove, but merely above average with the bat despite some great peripherals that suggest he could be better. Dansby Swanson might be the best comp, but older and at a position where defense is less a priority. So maybe 6/$140.
KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
Outfielder David Peralta Signing With the Chicago Cubs
Here's the big signing we've been waiting for...
Here's the big signing we've been waiting for...
KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
