Chicago Cubs 2024

Warren Carter Fanclub · Feb 25, 2024

Mr. Tibbs said:
it’s all about the term

we all know that
Boras wants a 7 year deal
Cubs want a 3 year deal

if they both can compromise on a term somewhere in the middle , a deal at about 27 million per annum would likely get done fairly quickly .

Nice call but were you figuring in the opt outs?
The question is: Do you WANT him to exercise the opt out after the first year? With Boras, he would have to have a pretty lousy year not to. Even if he gives us $30M worth of production he will opt out. And if that's the case it's a win/win if PCA progressively improves one more year.

suburbanILLINI · Feb 25, 2024

Suck it, Boras!

champaignchris · Feb 25, 2024

Man, that’s an unequivocal win for the Cubs.

This is effectively a 1 year $30 million deal. If Bellinger has any sort of year at all, he’ll be a free agent again next season and still only 29. It may not have been the long term deal he wanted, but he’ll have the opportunity to sign a huge contract next year.

ChiefGritty · Feb 25, 2024

Mr. Tibbs said:
exactly what the Cubs wanted

No, this is a one-year deal. Just a second pillow contract. Another year like the one he had and he heads back to free agency for a much larger payday, if he regresses then the Cubs are stuck with the rest.

The $80 million guarantee is less than the $105M over three years Carlos Correa got in his first Twins deal with which Boras kind of set the market for this sort of contract, so it is a win for the Cubs in that sense you could argue. It's way more than Boras got for Rhys Hoskins from the Brewers this offseason though.

You'd have to imagine most players aren't very eager to be on pillow deals their whole career with all the contract year pressure and uncertainty that repeats. But when there was no market for a Bellinger superdeal it always kinda felt like where this would end up.

Now we shall see what happens from here. Cubs still well under the CBT threshold.

champaignchris · Feb 25, 2024

Coincidentally, the is the 8 year anniversary of Dexter Fowler resigning in a 1-year deal with the Cubs.

Mr. Tibbs · Feb 25, 2024

ChiefGritty said:
No, this is a one-year deal. Just a second pillow contract. Another year like the one he had and he heads back to free agency for a much larger payday, if he regresses then the Cubs are stuck with the rest.

The $80 million guarantee is less than the $105M over three years Carlos Correa got in his first Twins deal with which Boras kind of set the market for this sort of contract, so it is a win for the Cubs in that sense you could argue. It's way more than Boras got for Rhys Hoskins from the Brewers this offseason though.

You'd have to imagine most players aren't very eager to be on pillow deals their whole career with all the contract year pressure and uncertainty that repeats. But when there was no market for a Bellinger superdeal it always kinda felt like where this would end up.

Now we shall see what happens from here. Cubs still well under the CBT threshold.

Cubs brass are celebrating today .

pretty much the deal they wanted & expected they would need to offer .

they really expect to not need him long term

ChiefGritty · Feb 25, 2024

Mr. Tibbs said:
Cubs brass are celebrating today .

pretty much the deal they wanted & expected they would need to offer .

they really expect to not need him long term

Totally. If the batted ball data and vulnerability to fastballs later in the year is a sign of what's to come, him being able to stay and collect $50M for 2025-6 will suck, there is risk there, but you're exactly right, the Cubs have some reason to believe Bellinger might not be needed by 2025 and the chances are he does opt out.

I think I said it elsewhere in the thread, I think the Cubs were always willing to pony up big money in the short term in order to sign a more flexible deal. $30M is a lot, but hardly crazy, positive all around.

ChiefGritty · Feb 25, 2024

Another good point I just read: Bellinger got a Qualifying Offer from the Cubs, which meant that any other team signing him had to give up a premium draft pick/slot. But you can only get QO'ed once per career as a player, so Bellinger will not have that weighing on his free agency next time.

Mr. Tibbs · Feb 25, 2024

Warren Carter Fanclub said:
Nice call but were you figuring in the opt outs?
The question is: Do you WANT him to exercise the opt out after the first year? With Boras, he would have to have a pretty lousy year not to. Even if he gives us $30M worth of production he will opt out. And if that's the case it's a win/win if PCA progressively improves one more year.

I had no idea at all about the opt outs .

but the Cubs should be so lucky that he hits .310 with 45 dingers and he then decides to test the waters again . my fear of course is a return to 2022 numbers

ChiefGritty · Feb 25, 2024

Mr. Tibbs said:
I had no idea at all about the opt outs .

but the Cubs should be so lucky that he hits .310 with 45 dingers and he then decides to test the waters again . my fear of course is a return to 2022 numbers

Of course if Bellinger has a great year and PCA's hit tool looks a little fringier in 7 months, all of a sudden the bigger contract would have been the much more favorable one from a Cubs perspective, and he'll cost way more to bring back if the Cubs want to try.

But this works well enough, and obviously makes the 2024 team project much, much better.

champaignchris · Feb 25, 2024

Interestingly, Fangraphs only has Bellinger predicted to be a 2.2 WAR player, which is something he’s never done. I understand that it sort of splits the difference between the Bellinger of 22-23 and the rest of his career, but he’s never been that kind of 2 WAR player. He’s always either been fantastic or awful.

DeonThomas · Feb 25, 2024

1. Hoerner - 2B
2. Swanson - SS
3. Happ - LF
4. Suzuki - RF
5. Bellinger - CF
6. Morel - 3B
7. Busch - 1B
8. Gomes - C

A pretty decent L/R mix in the starting line-up with a plethera of young talent ready to get their shot as those opportunities arise. And some solid veterans on the bench to the start spring training (David Peralta, Madrigal, Amaya, Dom Smith, Tauchman, Wisdom, et.al.)

Mr. Tibbs · Feb 25, 2024

champaignchris said:
Interestingly, Fangraphs only has Bellinger predicted to be a 2.2 WAR player, which is something he’s never done. I understand that it sort of splits the difference between the Bellinger of 22-23 and the rest of his career, but he’s never been that kind of 2 WAR player. He’s always either been fantastic or awful.

so this means Fangraphs will have Cubs & Cards both expected to win 84 games now with Bellinger back ?

ChiefGritty · Feb 25, 2024

champaignchris said:
Interestingly, Fangraphs only has Bellinger predicted to be a 2.2 WAR player, which is something he’s never done. I understand that it sort of splits the difference between the Bellinger of 22-23 and the rest of his career, but he’s never been that kind of 2 WAR player. He’s always either been fantastic or awful.

I wonder what that projection is calculating in terms of his defensive position.

If he's a full time CF (which depends on PCA's progress), he'd have to be pretty bad with the bat for his glove not to carry him above 2.2 WAR.

He was 1.8 WAR as one of the worst hitters in the league in 2022.

Good defense at a premium position really stabilizes and elevates a hitter's value. That's a big reason Jed is more willing to throw money at that sort of player.

Mr. Tibbs · Feb 25, 2024

can Bellinger or Swanson tell PCA to ditch the blue hair ??

ugh

I can’t wait for that stupid fad to run its course . Gimme a Danny McBride mullet any day over technicolor hair

Emerson Bigguns · Feb 25, 2024

Beautifully played by the front office. Even if it only turns out to be a one-year deal, we will be in a much better position to know which of our prospects is ready to play every day. Cody is likely much more important for the 2024 Cubs than the 2025 Cubs.

Grandpa · Feb 25, 2024

So the Cubs pay him 30 Mil this season. If he plays great he leaves for a long term deal. He will want long term while he is hot. If he plays poorly the Cubs have him for 2 more years and pay another 50 Mil. Good = 1yr @ 30 Bad = 3yr for 80

So I'm for winning the WS this season.

bdutts · Mar 2, 2024

Chapman to the Giants. 3 years, 54M.

suburbanILLINI · Mar 2, 2024

bdutts said:
Chapman to the Giants. 3 years, 54M.

Way to go, Boras. What a great agent!

Warren Carter Fanclub · Mar 2, 2024

bdutts said:
Chapman to the Giants. 3 years, 54M.

Same opt outs as Belli.

bdutts · Mar 2, 2024

Warren Carter Fanclub said:
Same opt outs as Belli.

Yep, I forgot to add that. Thanks!

champaignchris · Mar 2, 2024

Kinda wish the Cubs jumped on that Chapman deal. I’d be all for a Snell or Montgomery pillow deal at this point.

Mr. Tibbs · Mar 2, 2024

champaignchris said:
Kinda wish the Cubs jumped on that Chapman deal. I’d be all for a Snell or Montgomery pillow deal at this point.

yea . the “need” for a really good starter far outweighs the “need” for a third basemen .

2X2L · Mar 2, 2024

Downer comment here, old man thing here. I much prefer Williams/Santo/Banks et al. Yes, I know the Cubs of my youth didn't win a thing. But it sure was fun! And a lot of players had off-season jobs. Is it really fun now talking about contracts and multi-millions? Just wondering.

2X2L · Mar 2, 2024

One last thing. The Cubs should have locked up Sidd Finch when they had the chance.

Play ball! In my humble opinion, the greatest sport of all time other than roller derby.