Ok, morning update
Recap my top 16 from yesterday:
1. Houston (SOUTH #1 playing in Memphis, TN)
2. Connecticut (EAST #1 playing in Brooklyn, NY)
3. Purdue (MIDWEST #1 playing in Indianapolis, IN)
4. Iowa State (WEST #1 playing in Omaha, NE)
5. North Carolina (WEST #2 playing in Charlotte, NC)
6. Tennessee (SOUTH #2 playing in Charlotte, NC)
7. Marquette (MIDWEST #2 playing in Indianapolis, IN)
8. Arizona (EAST #2 playing in Salt Lake City, UT)
9. Baylor (MIDWEST #3 playing in Omaha, NE)
10. Illinois (EAST #3 playing in Memphis, TN)
11. Creighton (SOUTH #3 playing in Pittsburgh, PA)
12. Auburn (WEST #3 playing in Pittsburgh, PA)
13. Duke (EAST #4 playing in Brooklyn, NY)
14. Alabama (MIDWEST #4 playing in Salt Lake City, UT)
15. Kansas (EAST #4 playing in Spokane, WA)
16. Wisconsin (WEST #4 playing in Spokane, WA)
To answer a question, why Wisconsin #4 over anyone else? Well, it's close between them and Kentucky, but they're still playing and have a better resume, comparable metrics. This is why they held such a high seed for so long when they played terrible for a month. It's close enough right now that I'd consider swapping them and Kentucky if they lose, but either way they'll be 4-5 in the same pod. After that, though, there's a significant dropoff in team quality in a weird way for that part of the bracket.
So anyway...
17. Kentucky (WEST #5)
After this, resumes and/or metrics drop off a cliff for teams. BYU has decent metrics, middling resume. Gonzaga has good metrics, bad resume. Saint Mary's has similarly good metrics, bad resume (better metrics than Gonzaga, worse resume than Gonzaga). San Diego State has middling metrics and resume. Florida has bad metrics, improving resume (I think they're a 5 if they win today). South Carolina has terrible metrics and a so-so resume. I'll sort out the rest in a bit.