Looking at rebound statistics gives me some more optimism. As efficient as the Illini offense is, Iowa State's defense does create both turnovers and tougher shot opportunities. The Illini are 4th in the nation in rebounding at 41/game (Iowa State is 249th at 33/game). The Illini are 17th in offensive rebounds at 11.2/game and ISU is 117th in offensive rebounds allowed at 8.4/game (surprisingly the same as Illinois, but ISU is only 117th in offensive rebounding).
In Iowa State's 7 losses:
--Virginia Tech shot 40% but had 8 2nd chance points on 8 offensive rebounds
--Texas A&M shot 40% but had 16 2nd chance points on 15 OR
--Oklahoma only had 5 2nd chance points but shot 10/25 from 3-point range
--BYU had 10 2nd chance points on 12 OR
--Baylor had 16 on 13 OR
--Houston had 8 on 8 OR...but only had 9 turnovers and won despite shooting 42%
--Kansas State had 10 on 11 OR and won despite shooting only 40%
If the Illini can limit turnovers that will take away a key piece of ISU's offense. It also will mean more shots and more offensive rebound opportunities. If guys like Rodgers, Guerrier, Dainja and Hawkins hit the offensive boards like they are capable, it might be more important than ever in this matchup.
Yes. Second chance points will be huge. To me the 3 biggest keys to the game are:
1. Limit live ball turnovers
2. Get stops
3. Offensive rebound
2 lets us get out in transition. 3 lets us get second chance points. Both will help us score without having to solve their half court defense. And metrics say both are possible.
1 will prevent them from getting easy baskets. We’ve actually done pretty well taking care of the ball in half court and we’ve only really turned it over a lot against teams that full court press (Rutgers, Penn St). From what I’ve seen I don’t think ISU presses full court. And last game, although not nearly as good as ISU, Duquesne similarly plays half court defense and has a pretty good turnover percentage, and we turned it over about 40% less than what they typically get.
Anything can happen in one game, but if the game plays out the way the metrics point, I do think the metrics favor us.