Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Saturday, October 19th, 2:30pm CT, CBS

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#51      
Illini2010-11
New Creation said:
I thought it would be at least -10 for Michigan… gotta jump on this. My heart says Illini but my betting mind says Michigan by at least 2 TD
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And nothing suggests that Michigan can beat anybody in conference by 10+ points. They have not been good this year so far.

Expect a very volatile early line. I have seen this as a pick em in some books. It will likely settle as Michigan as slight favorites, but anticipate a much different game than yesterday. Now if Illinois did not comeback yesterday, this line would be much, much different.

These two teams are so difficult to predict right now.
 
#52      
New Creation
Illini2010-11 said:
And nothing suggests that Michigan can beat anybody in conference by 10+ points. They have not been good this year so far.

Expect a very volatile early line. I have seen this as a pick em in some books. It will likely settle as Michigan as slight favorites, but anticipate a much different game than yesterday. Now if Illinois did not comeback yesterday, this line would be much, much different.

These two teams are so difficult to predict right now.
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My issue is that looking at our strengths and weaknesses vs theirs.

Their run game against our Defense… this is what separates us.

I believe our O vs their D will be the breaking point. Can we score 21 points against their D?

Can we limit their explosive run plays against our D

And then… I think about the injuries we have in the secondary right now.

If Purdue can run our Defense off the field at will like they did in the secondary half, what will Michigan be able to do?

Over all analysis when I step back. If our O clicks against a better defense in Michigan like it did against Purdue, then we have a chance. But if we get stuck calling run plays up the middle on 1st and 2nd downs consistently allowing Michigan to blitz us on 3rd downs effectively we are going to be in trouble.

Barry earned his money against Purdue, now he can earn his raise against Michigan if O puts up 28 plus points against that D.

Back to the strength vs weakness to close it out.

Our strength is our passing game and their biggest weakness is their pass defense coming in at 107th and our pass offense ranking 64th. The biggest glare, their rush D is 3rd and our rushing attack is 87th.

The straight up stats… are not titled in our favor at all…unless you look at the what matters stat.

We are better per game in both points scored and points allowed. In the end… isn’t that what only matters.. the final score?

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#54      
Bleedorangeandblue44
dsg said:
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Thanks for posting this. How incredible to think that's 100 years ago now and watching this old grainy black and white video and we can still see so much of a stadium that all of us here know and love today. Also love the camera angle when you can see a glimpse of the Armory in the background. So much history at this school that means so much to all of us, and so glad for my little stretch of time I got to be part of it.
 
#57      
New Creation
Fly Illini Fly! said:
We might win, we might lose, we might not even be competitive... but there was ZERO chance the line would be - 10.

Like, seriously :rolleyes:
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Let me put it this way. Gamblers here in Vegas will push Michigan to win by 10 plus is my point.

Maybe it’s the Las Vegas resident in me..

-10 was not a for real thing.—-OBVIOUSLY—— Most will be -3.5 to -5 by Friday. Point being, Vegas opened up this line only because of the 2nd half against Purdue. Vegas also saying that Oregon is only 1 touchdown better than we are against Purdue. 28 point spread there right now.

The fact it is +1.5 right now on my MGM app says Vegas has no idea on this game and will let the gamblers decide this by Friday. Oh and get this the betting odds are -115 to take that +1.5 vs -105 to take -1.5 Michigan….compare those to a couple other BIG games. Betting the underdog normally doesn’t give you worst odds…
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#58      
WyattEarp
GrayGhost77 said:
Just like I feared, he was their John Paddock. Thankfully we still pulled it out.
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How dare you, Sir. How dare you…

John Paddock is immortal. Ryan Browne had his little moment…but that is all.
Using Chuck Norris as a unit of measure…I’ve put together an illustration…Ryan is roughly equal to one possessed evil Chucky Norris doll.
(He is tough, mean, and vile…but also plastic and fake like Ryan Walter’s.)
Whereas, John Paddock is equal to roughly 10 thousand full-grown Chuck Norris clones.
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Do you see the error of your ways now?
 
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#59      
Illini2010-11
New Creation said:
Let me put it this way. Gamblers here in Vegas will push Michigan to win by 10 plus is my point.

Maybe it’s the Las Vegas resident in me..

-10 was not a for real thing.—-OBVIOUSLY—— Most will be -3.5 to -5 by Friday. Point being, Vegas opened up this line only because of the 2nd half against Purdue. Vegas also saying that Oregon is only 1 touchdown better than we are against Purdue. 28 point spread there right now.

The fact it is +1.5 right now on my MGM app says Vegas has no idea on this game and will let the gamblers decide this by Friday. Oh and get this the betting odds are -115 to take that +1.5 vs -105 to take -1.5 Michigan….compare those to a couple other BIG games. Betting the underdog normally doesn’t give you worst odds…View attachment 36752
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BetMGM is stupid. They forgot the number in front of Illinois. Vegas gamblers do not have quite as much sway anymore in lines, as gambling across country is generally legalized.

I also do not understand your general point at all. If the line was based solely on 2nd half performance, as you suggest, Illinois would be double digit dogs, not a near pick em. The fact is that analytics show a much closer game, and I highly doubt that gamblers will move the line that much, unless there is a major injury/surprise.
 
#60      
GrayGhost77
WyattEarp said:
How dare you, Sir. How dare you…

John Paddock is immortal. Ryan Browne had his little moment…but that is all.
Using Chuck Norris as a unit of measure…I’ve put together an illustration…Ryan is roughly equal to one possessed evil Chucky Norris doll.
(He is tough, mean, and vile…but also plastic and fake like Ryan Walter’s.)
Whereas, John Paddock is equal to roughly 10 thousand full-grown Chuck Norris clones.
View attachment 36753

Do you see the error of your ways now?
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I repent for my sin. Please spare me John Paddock for I knew not what I was saying in a moment of weakness.
 
#63      
Second place is 1st loser
jamie13197 said:
Please for the love of Red Grange. Put 8 or 9 within 5 yards of line of scrimmage. Make them beat us throwing. PLEASE!
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The problem there is that we've shown absolutely no ability to keep contain on the QB. Our LBs are incredibly slow. Michigan can pound the ball between the tackles and their QB is superior athletically. This isn't a good situation for our defense.

I didn't love Henry's second half yesterday, but we have significant personnel problems that won't be able to be addressed until Signing Day 2025.
 
#64      
New Creation
Illini2010-11 said:
BetMGM is stupid. They forgot the number in front of Illinois. Vegas gamblers do not have quite as much sway anymore in lines, as gambling across country is generally legalized.

I also do not understand your general point at all. If the line was based solely on 2nd half performance, as you suggest, Illinois would be double digit dogs, not a near pick em. The fact is that analytics show a much closer game, and I highly doubt that gamblers will move the line that much, unless there is a major injury/surprise.
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“I also do not understand your general point at all. If the line was based solely on 2nd half performance, as you suggest, Illinois would be double digit dogs,”

This statement is how it all started when I said “I’m surprised we didn’t open as -10 Michigan…” whixh was sarcasm but not really at the same time.

All in all. Just a fun debate for me.
 
#65      
HensonHall71
We really need to figure something out in our run D- scheme, personnel, we almost need a different philosophy- I’d be fine with giving up trying to apply pressure for gap soundness

Move Jacas inside more and give someone else a chance at LB- out LBs have been terrible at stopping the run. It’s to the point we need a whole new gameplan for Michigan - we know what they will do and it’s just a question of it we can stop it
 
#68      
JKR
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