Coaching Carousel (Basketball)

[grue2]

I could see what you're saying but here's my counter. Let's say there's those groups like you say. The 30 players demand their millions and playing time so most likely a team gets two of these players at most. So you're a school that has those two guys and with that you think you can probably make the tournament but will probably lose first round if you surround them with scrubs. So my question is- how much money would you pay to the group 2 guys to improve your team to the point it could reach the final?

Asking that question feeds into why the group 2 guys are being paid so much, because that means there's 15-30 teams that think they have the core guys to win it all but need to supplement their talent and then after those teams you have the losers who couldn't secure any group 1 players so now they need to overcompensate with group 2 players.

As an aside I think we're about to see two + scrubs this upcoming season at Rutgers. (Sorry, Rutgers)

Rutgers will be an interesting case this year. I think it will be a great insight into Pikiell's ability as a coach. Look at what Bo Ryan did at WI for decades, using a combination of 3/4 star players. Under the current NIL system, trying to win a Natty will be very expensive. Being good enough to make the tournament, and the 2nd weekend some of the time doesn't have to be expensive. I've made my prediction. Its time to wait and see where it goes.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

I spent about an hour writing a nice post to watch it get eaten. Here is the quick and dirty gist without any wordsmithing.

Comparing to other opportunities -- the current NIL far, far exceeds them.
(Flagg can't play in the NBA this year. If he could, he would. The NIL exceeds ALL other leagues.)

There are three groups of players in the NCAA (1) ~15 who will make the NBA for some period, along with another ~15 who will kick around the g league (2) ~500 who will try overseas leagues, and (3) the other 5000.

The median NBA career is not quite 2 years. The average career is 4.5 years. Most second round picks never make a team. If they do, it is at the league minimum deep bench. More likely they are in the G league hoping for a call up, or a contract next year. Unless they were a lottery pick, they did not earn enough during this time to retire. (50-60 years is a long time to live on savings.)

The numbers are not that different in the foreign leagues other than the pay is much lower. 250-300k is a good salary in the higher leagues. The lower leagues don't pay much. Search for my detailed post on league salaries around the world from a year or two ago if you want more details.

The result: Most of the students are 4 year students. 99.9%+ of the students are dependent on their education going forward.

What I'm hearing (3rd/4th hand) for the current NIL demands for the group 2 players exceeds what they will make as pros once their game matures. There is no way they could get that money anywhere else in the world right now. These demands are on top of the room/board and education they get.

My opinion: Group 1 may be worth the NIL. Groups 2 is being way overpaid. This is the group that I expect to have their NIL drop dramatically within the next 5 years. The 4 year scholarship is a bargain. Group 3, I have no idea what they are asking.

The entire problem with this whole analysis is that 99% of the time a college basketball team's competition for players is not the NBA or G League or overseas leagues. It is other college basketball teams. Those are the competitors that will drive up prices.

 

[grue2]

The entire problem with this whole analysis is that 99% of the time a college basketball team's competition for players is not the NBA or G League or overseas leagues. It is other college basketball teams. Those are the competitors that will drive up prices.

I tried to address this in an earlier post. Then people went after the other angle.

The question was what is fair pay based on:
1) Economic value to the university? (Increased non-sports donations mostly.)
2) Ego for the alumni funding it? (Who knows where this goes.)
3) Other?

 

[AZILL]

This thread has become, not fun.......

 

[Homecoming 2019]

View attachment 36942

 

[OrangeKrush1981]

This thread has become, not fun.......

I actually find it thought-provoking. I'm glad folks posting here have taken the time to do so.

 

[ptgrd23]

Worse its boring and has nothing to do with coaches getting hired / fired .

JMO - coaches on hot seat

Woodson Indiana
Hurley Arizona State
Sanchez UVA
Gates Missouri
McCaffrey Iowa
Johnson Minnesota
Moser Oklahoma

 

[AZILL]

I actually find it thought-provoking. I'm glad folks posting here have taken the time to do so.

I just find it funny so many are putting the cart before the horse on this subject. Schools have to be given the ability to sign student athletes to contracts, and if they have it forced upon them via Congress, which is what I think has to happen, then they have to decide if they even want the very very huge headaches that come with it. Absolutely no way it works as being discussed when you have to consider all the Title IX implications. There are just too many things that need to work in harmony for it to have any chance of success.

 

[IlliniFan42]

I just find it funny so many are putting the cart before the horse on this subject. Schools have to be given the ability to sign student athletes to contracts, and if they have it forced upon them via Congress, which is what I think has to happen, then they have to decide if they even want the very very huge headaches that come with it. Absolutely no way it works as being discussed when you have to consider all the Title IX implications. There are just too many things that need to work in harmony for it to have any chance of success.

Title IX is the elephant in the room when it comes to this discussion. Two sports pay for the rest and those two sports' players wouldn't have a problem getting paid if they just got to keep a chunk of their own profit.

 

[AZILL]

THE ELEPHANT is that Title IX doesn't give 2 hoots about which sports pay for what...........

It is entirely possible Title IX gets rewritten because of all the angst over biological males playing women's sports and then you add in NIL/Contracts..... lots to figure out there. And I have ZERO confidence the NCAA will figure out a way to address ALL of those things. And I can almost guarantee that if it ends up being the U.S. Congress figuring it out, then we are truly screwed!