Illini Basketball 2024-2025

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#131      
Ga65
Just curious on how people think Ivisic compares to Golden. In limited action he seems superior to me. Is that my orange glasses or a realistic comparison? Actually think Tomi a better shooter but equivalent defensively but need to see him against better competition.
 
#132      
Emerson Bigguns
Ga65 said:
Just curious on how people think Ivisic compares to Golden. In limited action he seems superior to me. Is that my orange glasses or a realistic comparison? Actually think Tomi a better shooter but equivalent defensively but need to see him against better competition.
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I think a lot of people, given what we know right now, would take our guy. The next 3 pointer Goldin makes will be the first. That alone would give him an edge in a lot of coaches eyes.
We will know more next week, but Tomi is big enough, fast enough, and smart enough to go head to head with anyone in college basketball and hold his own. Dude looks like a pro.
 
#133      
RollChief
Second place is 1st loser said:
Define "a lot". A #1 seed generally consist of one, MAYBE two non conference losses, a regular season conference championship and more than likely a conference tournament run.

You can point to multiple cases where a team lost 99% of everything from the year prior to be a #1 seed the next year?
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I took a look at continuity data (using KenPom's definition) for all data for #1 seeds.

From 2008-2024, the #1 seeds with the most continuity were 2008 Kansas (83%), 2009 UConn (83%), 2011 Pitt (80%), 2016 Kansas (77%), and 2015 Nova (77%). Of these teams, only 2008 Kansas won a championship.

Conversely, since 2008, the #1 seeds with the least continuity were 2019 Duke (22%), 2020 Zaga (23%), 2023 Bama (26%), 2017 Zaga (30%), 2023 Kansas (37%). None of these teams won championships.

Over this time frame, #1 seeds usually average between 50%-70% continuity, with the outlier being 2023 at 35%.

For D-1 Continuity overall, the average was consistently around 49%-51% from 2008-2022. Not shockingly, this dropped considerably to 42% in 2023, 39% in 2024, and 34% this season.

I think its fair to say that on average, #1 seeds tend to have a higher likelihood of having more minutes continuity, but continuity as a reliable indicator of success has changed drastically over the past two years (and hasn't ever really been a primary success indicator). If Illinois were to get a 1-seed, it would be historic any way you frame it. Putting on orange colored glasses, considering that some of our Freshmen have already been flirting with records, its not unreasonable to dream.
 
#134      
Second place is 1st loser
RollChief said:
I took a look at continuity data (using KenPom's definition) for all data for #1 seeds.

From 2008-2024, the #1 seeds with the most continuity were 2008 Kansas (83%), 2009 UConn (83%), 2011 Pitt (80%), 2016 Kansas (77%), and 2015 Nova (77%). Of these teams, only 2008 Kansas won a championship.

Conversely, since 2008, the #1 seeds with the least continuity were 2019 Duke (22%), 2020 Zaga (23%), 2023 Bama (26%), 2017 Zaga (30%), 2023 Kansas (37%). None of these teams won championships.

Over this time frame, #1 seeds usually average between 50%-70% continuity, with the outlier being 2023 at 35%.

For D-1 Continuity overall, the average was consistently around 49%-51% from 2008-2022. Not shockingly, this dropped considerably to 42% in 2023, 39% in 2024, and 34% this season.

I think its fair to say that on average, #1 seeds tend to have a higher likelihood of having more minutes continuity, but continuity as a reliable indicator of success has changed drastically over the past two years (and hasn't ever really been a primary success indicator). If Illinois were to get a 1-seed, it would be historic any way you frame it. Putting on orange colored glasses, considering that some of our Freshmen have already been flirting with records, its not unreasonable to dream.
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Wow!!!! This is fantastic!!!!
 
#135      
foby
RollChief said:
I took a look at continuity data (using KenPom's definition) for all data for #1 seeds.

From 2008-2024, the #1 seeds with the most continuity were 2008 Kansas (83%), 2009 UConn (83%), 2011 Pitt (80%), 2016 Kansas (77%), and 2015 Nova (77%). Of these teams, only 2008 Kansas won a championship.

Conversely, since 2008, the #1 seeds with the least continuity were 2019 Duke (22%), 2020 Zaga (23%), 2023 Bama (26%), 2017 Zaga (30%), 2023 Kansas (37%). None of these teams won championships.

Over this time frame, #1 seeds usually average between 50%-70% continuity, with the outlier being 2023 at 35%.

For D-1 Continuity overall, the average was consistently around 49%-51% from 2008-2022. Not shockingly, this dropped considerably to 42% in 2023, 39% in 2024, and 34% this season.

I think its fair to say that on average, #1 seeds tend to have a higher likelihood of having more minutes continuity, but continuity as a reliable indicator of success has changed drastically over the past two years (and hasn't ever really been a primary success indicator). If Illinois were to get a 1-seed, it would be historic any way you frame it. Putting on orange colored glasses, considering that some of our Freshmen have already been flirting with records, its not unreasonable to dream.
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Great research. My point had to do with the least continuity group, however as @Second place is 1st loser brought up and you proved, in our situation that would be unprecedented success.
 
#136      
Carter Waller
Emerson Bigguns said:
I think a lot of people, given what we know right now, would take our guy. The next 3 pointer Goldin makes will be the first. That alone would give him an edge in a lot of coaches eyes.
We will know more next week, but Tomi is big enough, fast enough, and smart enough to go head to head with anyone in college basketball and hold his own. Dude looks like a pro.
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And gosh darn it people like him.
 
#137      
21ChampaignSt
RollChief said:
I think its fair to say that on average, #1 seeds tend to have a higher likelihood of having more minutes continuity, but continuity as a reliable indicator of success has changed drastically over the past two years (and hasn't ever really been a primary success indicator). If Illinois were to get a 1-seed, it would be historic any way you frame it. Putting on orange colored glasses, considering that some of our Freshmen have already been flirting with records, its not unreasonable to dream.
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Only thing I would challenge is this. I guess it depends on what you're defining as "success" but there is a clear positive correlation between continuity and efficiency metrics. Any specific data point you to this conclusion?
 
#139      
WyattEarp
Carter Waller said:
And gosh darn it people like him.
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stuart smalley snl GIF by Saturday Night Live
 
#141      
RollChief
21ChampaignSt said:
Only thing I would challenge is this. I guess it depends on what you're defining as "success" but there is a clear positive correlation between continuity and efficiency metrics. Any specific data point you to this conclusion?
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Sure, the data point I was referring to is the overall decline in continuity due to transfer portal mobility, and that there isn't a p-value of 1 between continuity & success which may have gotten less correlated since the transfer movement began in 2022. That said, to your point, you can reasonably assume that a championship caliber team will have higher continuity than D-1 average (see 2024: UConn (42.4%), 1-seed (48.8%), D-1 average (38.2%)).

My glasses maybe got a little too orange haha.
 
#142      
21ChampaignSt
RollChief said:
Sure, the data point I was referring to is the overall decline in continuity due to transfer portal mobility, and that there isn't a p-value of 1 between continuity & success which may have gotten less correlated since the transfer movement began in 2022. That said, to your point, you can reasonably assume that a championship caliber team will have higher continuity than D-1 average (see 2024: UConn (42.4%), 1-seed (48.8%), D-1 average (38.2%)).

My glasses maybe got a little too orange haha.
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No such thing. Good stuff.
 
#145      
Guest
As AZILL pointed out, and I quote, "As a kid, he was called Bam-Bam.”. It has probably gotten shortened over the years to just Bam. I am surprised no one has made the reference to the Flintstones. Maybe he did some “Bam-Bam” things as a toddler.
 
#146      
Fighter of the Nightman
On another note, it TOTALLY slipped by me that Braggin' Rights is finally on a proper channel (ESPN) again ... it's been FAR too long that such a cool rivalry (no matter how good either team is) has been on BTN or SECN. To my knowledge, it is the last remaining neutral court, 50/50 crowd rivalry in all of college basketball (with Florida/Georgia and Texas/Oklahoma being the only prominent ones in college football), and it deserved better!

I know some are bummed about the noon Sunday time, but I'm sure it will still be a party ... it always is. I hope that the Big Ten networks will treat it similarly next year when we have the TV rights and prioritize getting it on FOX or CBS rather than letting it fall to BTN or FS1.
 
#147      
gary?
:rolleyes: can we leave this crap off the board, please
 
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