Team rankings are a joke. Auburn has had Top 25 classes for the last 5 years and yet they have 4 straight losing seasons. Nebraska is always in the Top 25-30 yet they have made 1 bowl game in the last 5 years. Coaching and player development is the key.
Of course there are counter examples, and of course coaching and player development is extremely important. But talent helps. Here are the last 5 years' recruiting ranks (from 247) for the current top 10 in the CFP (2020-2024)
1. Oregon - 13, 6, 13, 9, 3
2. Texas - 9, 15, 5, 3, 6
3. Penn St. - 15, 21, 6, 14, 15
4. ND - 18, 9, 7, 12, 9
5. UGA - 1, 4, 3, 2, 1
6. OSU - 5, 2, 4, 4, 5
7. Tenn - 11, 22, 17, 10, 14
8. SMU - 69, 51, 82, 72, 107
9. Indiana - 58, 55, 25, 68, 65
10. Boise St. - 66, 67, 62, 67, 64
The top 7 teams have all been exclusively top 25 recruiting classes for the last 5 years. All have at least one top 10 season. UGA and OSU have been top 5 recruiting classes every year. Of course, teams 8-10 are very different. Indiana did have one top 25 recruiting class, but otherwise very blah. So what's the takeaway? I think having a top recruiting class makes winning a lot easier. Doesn't mean it can't be done otherwise, but clearly teams that recruit well are disproportionately represented at the top of the heap. I think being in the Big Ten or SEC, it's going to be harder to win without the talent than it would be for teams like Boise St. or SMU.
Below is our recruiting in the same time frame. It has improved in the time Bret has taken over. I would love to see us in a place where we are consistently top 40 and sneak into the top 25 on a regular basis. I don't think we're far off, just need to keep results coming on the field.
Illinois - 82, 73, 46, 38, 49