Illinois Football Recruiting Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
#126      
mhuml32
altgeld88 said:
A general question for those on this thread: when's the most recent time you were this satisfied about the state and and optimistic about the trajectory of the football program?

For me: 1990, and it was unfounded. I was 24 and had ~ 1% of the information I have access to now through all of you here (and particularly our beloved Insiders) so that '90 optimism was a stab in the dark. Today, I feel pretty good. This seems stable. Waited ~ 35 subsequent years to get here.

Josh, BB, donors: 🙏
Click to expand...

2008. Coming off the Rose Bowl. Many of the top pieces were returning. A bunch of promising freshman from '07 were bound to take a leap in '08. Zook recruiting was still at its peak (2008 was the last Illinois class to be top 25). The future was bright (narrator: the future was actually not bright).
 
#127      
Ander1345
mhuml32 said:
2008. Coming off the Rose Bowl. Many of the top pieces were returning. A bunch of promising freshman from '07 were bound to take a leap in '08. Zook recruiting was still at its peak (2008 was the last Illinois class to be top 25). The future was bright (narrator: the future was actually not bright).
Click to expand...
Inability to retain assistants or hire effective replacements and our best players heavily regressing or not developing.
 
#128      
Macho Man
altgeld88 said:
A general question for those on this thread: when's the most recent time you were this satisfied about the state and and optimistic about the trajectory of the football program?

For me: 1990, and it was unfounded. I was 24 and had ~ 1% of the information I have access to now through all of you here (and particularly our beloved Insiders) so that '90 optimism was a stab in the dark. Today, I feel pretty good. This seems stable. Waited ~ 35 subsequent years to get here.

Josh, BB, donors: 🙏
Click to expand...
1966, the day before Mel Brewer started the Slush Fund problems. I was a student at UI.
 
#130      
altgeld88
mhuml32 said:
2008. Coming off the Rose Bowl. Many of the top pieces were returning. A bunch of promising freshman from '07 were bound to take a leap in '08. Zook recruiting was still at its peak (2008 was the last Illinois class to be top 25). The future was bright (narrator: the future was actually not bright).
Click to expand...
Even after 2007 I wasn't sold on Zook as a coach, merely as a recruiter (which was a huge component of success, of course). We never seemed to have complete teams under his leadership, position coaching seemed spotty, in-game decisions often suspect, and he just never seemed confident and in control. I saw him as fundamentally flawed. I hoped I was wrong. And then Beckman made him look like Tom Landry.

Macho Man said:
1966, the day before Mel Brewer started the Slush Fund problems. I was a student at UI.
Click to expand...
That's the answer I expected from anyone on board as a fan at the time. I wasn't walking yet ;) You're the definition of "long-suffering Illini football fan."
 
#132      
bluemountain
altgeld88 said:
A general question for those on this thread: when's the most recent time you were this satisfied about the state and and optimistic about the trajectory of the football program?

For me: 1990, and it was unfounded. I was 24 and had ~ 1% of the information I have access to now through all of you here (and particularly our beloved Insiders) so that '90 optimism was a stab in the dark. Today, I feel pretty good. This seems stable. Waited ~ 35 subsequent years to get here.

Josh, BB, donors: 🙏
Click to expand...
August 2002. Coming off a Big 10 championship and RT was being celebrated as an offensive guru. Obviously didn't turn out that way.

IMO, your optimism in 1990 was well warranted. Mackovic was the best coach we have had in my lifetime, recruiting was going well, and we had put ourselves on more or less even footing with OSU and Iowa.
 
#133      
aaeismacgychel
Illiniam1984 said:
Make sense but at some point they will need to take a risk.
Click to expand...
Sometimes risks work out. But if the risk is spending $1.5M of your supposed around $5M budget on a largely unproven player, you're basically saying you value that player at around 30% if your entire team value! That's some risk. And one i can't see any even mildly decent head coach taking
 
#136      
RabidDawgClassic
altgeld88 said:
A general question for those on this thread: when's the most recent time you were this satisfied about the state and and optimistic about the trajectory of the football program?

For me: 1990, and it was unfounded. I was 24 and had ~ 1% of the information I have access to now through all of you here (and particularly our beloved Insiders) so that '90 optimism was a stab in the dark. Today, I feel pretty good. This seems stable. Waited ~ 35 subsequent years to get here.

Josh, BB, donors: 🙏
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t say your optimism in 1990 was unfounded, it was just the victim of a series of unfortunate events that traces back to the naming of John Mackovic as Athletic Director while also keeping his head coaching job. When he left for Texas in 1991, we were in the unenviable position of having neither a head football coach nor an athletic director in place to hire the next head coach. Compound that with the unfortunate coincidence of not having a full time chancellor to hire the next athletic director and you ended up with interim Chancellor Morton Wier just lazily naming Defensive Coordinator Lou Tepper as head coach.

At that time, Illinois football was in a position where a national search could’ve brought in an experienced head coach from an another program. But the naming of Tepper and his many puritan and strategic quirks sent the program down a death spiral from which it’s only now (hopefully) starting to emerge. So your optimism was valid, but external factors fought valiantly against it.
 
Last edited:
#137      
Bert2022
CaptainCrutch said:
Boy, wonder who’s who.

So, theoretically, if one is at 95%, do you mean that the second is at a 65-70% or that the odds of getting both at 65-70%? Because of it it’s the latter….

To solve for the odds of the second event (let's call it Event Gabe), we can use the formula for the probability of two independent events happening together. The probability of both events X and Gabe occurring (P(C ∩ Gabe)) is related to the probabilities of X and Gabe as follows:

\[
P(X \cap Gabe) = P( ) \times P(Gabe \mid X)
\]

where:

- \( P(X) \) is the probability of Event X (95% or 0.95),
- \( P(Gabe \mid X) \) is the probability of Event Gabe happening given that Event X has occurred.

You are given that the probability of both events happening together is between 65% and 70% (or 0.65 to 0.70). So, we have the equation:

\[
P(X \cap Gabe) = P(C) \times P(Gabe) = 0.65 \text{ to } 0.70
\]

Now, solve for \( P(Gabe) \):

\[
P(Gabe) = \frac{P(X \cap Gabe)}{P(X)}
\]

Substitute the values:

\[
P(Gabe) = \frac{0.65}{0.95} \approx 0.684 \quad \text{to} \quad P(Gabe) = \frac{0.70}{0.95} \approx 0.737
\]

So, the probability of Event Gabe occurring is approximately between **68.4% and 73.7%**.
Click to expand...
Showoff ;)
 
#141      
ptgrd23
Welcome Leon! You still win in the trenches so bringing in proven P4 defensive lineman is a big plus!

NIL? Better chance to get to NFL? Likes our 5-2 better than Wisconsin 2-4-5
 
Last edited:
#143      
mhuml32
Illiniam1984 said:
Wisconsin lost some starting wide receivers to the portal. Interesting.
Click to expand...

They are an example of a team that's getting headlines because of the talent being brought in but they are losing quite a few useful pieces. I mentioned the QB commits because they badly needed an upgrade on Locke and they got two promising college QBs. Edwards raises the floor quite a bit, but can O'Neil win the job? The swapping of pieces (players going out, more players coming in) just increases the unfamiliarity and raises the risk the cake won't set next fall. A lot on the line for Fickell.
 
#144      
spotter
mhuml32 said:
2008. Coming off the Rose Bowl. Many of the top pieces were returning. A bunch of promising freshman from '07 were bound to take a leap in '08. Zook recruiting was still at its peak (2008 was the last Illinois class to be top 25). The future was bright (narrator: the future was actually not bright).
Click to expand...
This.

It feels like BB is building something more sustainable, and thus maybe we can have more faith and hope for 2025-2030.
 
#145      
1m4tr
#146      
Bassinillini
mhuml32 said:
They are an example of a team that's getting headlines because of the talent being brought in but they are losing quite a few useful pieces. I mentioned the QB commits because they badly needed an upgrade on Locke and they got two promising college QBs. Edwards raises the floor quite a bit, but can O'Neil win the job? The swapping of pieces (players going out, more players coming in) just increases the unfamiliarity and raises the risk the cake won't set next fall. A lot on the line for Fickell.
Click to expand...
I see what you did there. You’re saying Wisconsin’s future is Fickell at best.
 
#149      
IlliniUnited
Let’s be honest, does Khan really need an honorary degree? He is a billionaire. He owns companies and sports teams. That being said it is pretty short sighted of those that made the decision. He has been a huge financial supporter of the university and there is no reason to do anything that could impact his future contributions.
 
#150      
biglug58
Bassinillini said:
I see what you did there. You’re saying Wisconsin’s future is Fickell at best.
Click to expand...
Thats Good Robert Deniro GIF
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back