CFB Playoff & Bowl Games

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#153      
RockfordIllini
Indiana imported alot of Cignetti’s JMU team. And last night they looked like a good group of 5 school going up against one of the big boys. Rourke looked like a MAC quarterback who doesn’t have the arm to make all the throws you need at the high P4 level.

I think IU was a one year wonder that benefitted from 1. Continuity with the JMU roster and 2. A soft schedule. Maybe Cignetti really is a coaching genius. But as we’ve seen it’s really hard to built and sustain a college program. I suspect he struggles next year.
 
#154      
Piotyr
AZILL said:
In fairness, I personally, do not think that ND is 'all that'...... I mentioned earlier during their game that ND and IU were both mediocre 11-1 teams. I think that they both showed that this evening. We'll see how ND looks next week.
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Saying they were just a couple of mediocre 11-1 teams ignores the fact they were the only 11-1 teams in college football this season.

It's possible for both of the following to be true:

1. Indiana and ND are two of the top 10 teams in the country
2. ND is significantly better than Indiana

If you look at their composite rankings across all systems (https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf), ND is 2nd and Indiana is 7th. Last night's game was in sloppy conditions and there were sloppy plays as a result. Notre Dame was better, that's how football games work, only one team wins. Doesn't mean the other team was a fraud.
 
#155      
BretMyBeachHouse
Piotyr said:
Saying they were just a couple of mediocre 11-1 teams ignores the fact they were the only 11-1 teams in college football this season.

It's possible for both of the following to be true:

1. Indiana and ND are two of the top 10 teams in the country
2. ND is significantly better than Indiana

If you look at their composite rankings across all systems (https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf), ND is 2nd and Indiana is 7th. Last night's game was in sloppy conditions and there were sloppy plays as a result. Notre Dame was better, that's how football games work, only one team wins. Doesn't mean the other team was a fraud.
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With two minutes left against OSU they had 7 points. With two minutes left against ND they had 3 points.

They were a fraud.
 
#156      
OrangeBlue98
Piotyr said:
Saying they were just a couple of mediocre 11-1 teams ignores the fact they were the only 11-1 teams in college football this season.

It's possible for both of the following to be true:

1. Indiana and ND are two of the top 10 teams in the country
2. ND is significantly better than Indiana

If you look at their composite rankings across all systems (https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf), ND is 2nd and Indiana is 7th. Last night's game was in sloppy conditions and there were sloppy plays as a result. Notre Dame was better, that's how football games work, only one team wins. Doesn't mean the other team was a fraud.
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But the questions have to be raised about IU. Yes, you play who is on the schedule. But their two toughest pre-CFP opponents this season were OSU and a mediocre Michigan team.

Put another way, swap IU’s and Illinois’ schedules. What would your records prediction be for each program? I also think ND would have beaten Illinois pretty soundly, just to to put that out there.
 
#158      
Piotyr
OrangeBlue98 said:
But the questions have to be raised about IU. Yes, you play who is on the schedule. But their two toughest pre-CFP opponents this season were OSU and a mediocre Michigan team.

Put another way, swap IU’s and Illinois’ schedules. What would your records prediction be for each program? I also think ND would have beaten Illinois pretty soundly, just to to put that out there.
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Both teams are probably 10-2 if you swap schedules, but the metrics remain the same with Indiana 7th and Illinois 40th. Heck, if Illinois replays Illinois' schedule they may not go 9-3 with two overtime wins and two other comeback wins.
 
#159      
jrichisamazing
Bleedorangeandblue44 said:
Always have liked sean mcdonough, but here comes the questions about the Big Ten with the way Indiana has looked tonight. Those will get a lot louder if Penn State and Ohio State don't come through at home tomorrow.

Agree that this hasn't been the most exciting game tonight, but really was looking forward to tonight's game and the college playoffs all week. And I say that as someone who was wrong all those years thinking a playoff would take away from the college football regular season. Love seeing these early games on a college campus, it's electric.
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Agreed. I think the quarterfinals should be on campus as well, maybe even the semis.

16 teams seems like a good number. Home games should be the reward for a good season. Have them until at least the semis or maybe even just have a neutral championship.

I also really like the IHSA rule where if a lower seed wins on the road, then they get a home game next round. Don't think we will ever see that at this level, but it would be fun.
 
#162      
illinifan1987
BretMyBeachHouse said:
With two minutes left against OSU they had 7 points. With two minutes left against ND they had 3 points.

They were a fraud.
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Preach John Stamos GIF by Fuller House
 
#163      
TheChief4Life
BretMyBeachHouse said:
In no way are they a top 10 team.
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The metrics would seem to disagree.

That said, the only real evidence we have are the results on the field. Based on those... they certainly didn't seem to belong. But, let's wait and see how some teams that some of us think "do belong" or are "definitely" better than Indiana do today. If Tennessee or OSU loses by 20 points, do we still say "In no way were they a top 10 team"? I guarantee no one does.
 
#164      
OrangeBlue98
Piotyr said:
Both teams are probably 10-2 if you swap schedules, but the metrics remain the same with Indiana 7th and Illinois 40th. Heck, if Illinois replays Illinois' schedule they may not go 9-3 with two overtime wins and two other comeback wins.
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Fair enough. I think you basically swap records and rankings along with the schedules, but reasonable minds can differ.
 
#165      
Illini2010-11
Oracle21 said:
Indiana had a great season. To go from 3-9 to 11-2 is a heck of a turn around. And the key thing they did was lock up Cignetti although it’s possible Ohio State still puts together enough money to get him if they fire Ryan Day. Given all the NIL that Indiana has I think they are going to be good for as long as Cig is there

Notre Dame can win this whole thing. They remind me of Michigan from last year. I really haven’t been impressed with any team other than Oregon’s speed. So Notre Dame has as good of shot as any
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Dave Chapelle GIF by MOODMAN


Pretty sure Ohio State would be after much bigger fish than Cignetti. Probably would want a bit younger coach too.

I believe IU drops off a lot next year.
 
#167      
Mr. Tibbs
ND is really not that good. are they pretty good ? sure. real good ? no

pretty sure they lose the next game they play.
had they played in the B1G with a normal schedule or in the SEC, they likely would be 9-3, not 11-1
 
#169      
Illini92and96
NoRival said:
Same Ole Indiana.

They are just not good. Getting outplayed by a bad ND team.

Cignetti is a fraud. He used IU's soft schedule to get a big contract.

ND will get smoked by Georgia.
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I’m not sure Georgia will smoke them with a backup quarterback. Line is ND -1.5 and I think it’s a toss up. If Beck were playing I think they would win comfortably.
 
#170      
New Creation
After those announcers last night. Now I am really rooting for the BIG to beat these dudes down. Last night I was torn about who to root for because it was IU vs ND. But now. I’ll be rooting against the SEC the rest of the way. Hoping OSU and PSU don’t crap the bed today with home games.

Go BIG
 
#171      
lstewart53x3
BretMyBeachHouse said:
Fraud may be too strong a word. In no way are they a top 10 team. That's not hard to grasp.
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That’s a lot of confidence for a statement that every analytical machine, accounting for strength of schedule, disagrees with.

I realize they played poorly against OSU and ND, but let’s look at it like this:

We ended the season #20 in the CFP. We had 5 opponents in common with Indiana (Michigan, Michigan St, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Purdue).

Here was the score differential for both teams in those 5 games:

Illinois: +54 (+10.8/game avg.)
Indiana: +174 (+34.8/game avg.)

They were a standard deviation or two better than the #20 team this year.

Penn St ended the year ranked #4 in CFP poll. They also had 5 opponents in common with Indiana. Let’s see how they did:

Penn St: +114 (+22.8/ game avg.)
Indiana: +100 (+20/game avg.)

That seems about right. Way better than #20, slightly worse than #4.

That’s a top 10 team.
 
#174      
Illini4Chief
You lost me at the "Indiana and ND are two of the top 10 teams in the country" Not so sure Indiana is better than Bama.
 
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#175      
Illini2010-11
Piotyr said:
Here are 60 different ways they're a top 10 team. That's more than zero, just to reiterate.

Massey Ratings - College Football Rankings

College Football computer rankings and polls, weekly composite
masseyratings.com masseyratings.com
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Also add that IU's two losses were true road games to top 10 teams. It is an open question to how those games would have developed in Bloomington. I do believe they were ranked appropriately going into last night, based on how they handled the teams on their schedule.
 
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