I’m just talking in real general terms about the portal world we’re in. Has nothing to do with whether he likes it here or not. And I actually think he likes it here. Obviously he probably wants a little more tick consistently like all guys and would like it more if TA was still here. I’ll also point out a lot of people thought Dravyn was going to transfer throughout all last year.
Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread
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The comparison point is someone going early in the 2nd round of the draft. This makes them a top 20 college player. How much are those players getting? (Top 40 in the draft, 1/2 of those came by a non-college route.)
When it comes to next season I will continue to use my recent methodology.... Check loyalty incessantly during the next 7 months, make sarcastic comments, use stupid comedy gifs, and then make my final portal assessment in June/July.
And I'll have a nice cocktail in the Chicago sun if I ever freak out over the roster and realize it will be ok
DGL and Morez are just completely different situations though. DGL came off the bench in high school and knows if he went to transfer it wouldn't be a lateral move program wise a lot easier to get that guy to accept his role than someone like Morez. He thinks he is an NBA player and if he hit the portal after this year he could still go just about anywhere he wants.
Well the specific player you mentioned (Tyler Smith, drafted immediately after Filipowski) got $0 NIL because he was drafted from G League Ignite (btw the guaranteed portion of his deal is over $3 million). And the player after that was Kolek whose deal is up to $9 million with $6.5 of that guaranteed.
And I'll point out that the exact quote I was responding to was "NBA starter contracts are on par with NIL." I highly doubt Kolek was making $2 million a year at Marquette. I doubt Filipowski was making $3 million a year at Duke, though I suppose it's possible. These are 2nd round picks. Once you get to the first round, there is no way these deals are "on par with NIL."
yeah....
Yeah, but at this point that's an outlier. Estimates I've seen for Cooper Flagg are around $3-4 mil.
And very few players get even that kind of deal. A lot of these are estimates as this isn't public info but I've seen top ten lists where the #10 highest paid guy is at like $1.8 mil. I think people have a tendency to see the big numbers for top guys and extrapolate some kind of normal distribution whereas I think in reality that number drops pretty dramatically as you go down the list.
But it's being paid in gold tablets that are hard to cash in
Reminder: The discussion started by excluding players who are lottery picks. My intent was to talk about the typical 2nd round cases, not the outliers.
Maybe the first question we should try and answer is what do people think the 10th-20th best college players get in NIL?
(Does someone want to set up a survey?)
Given your estimate, whatever it is, on average, do you think someone will earn more by:
A) Going pro as a 2nd round draft after freshman year and playing 2 years in the g-league.
- A typical salary is 1.1-1.5M/yr area. Most of those players are cut after their first two years of the contract.
- If they stay in the G-league for 3-4 years, those last two years will most often be at the G-league salary of 5-600k.
or
B) Staying in college:
- Earning 3-4 more years of NIL (Insert your estimate)
- Getting a degree
- Possibly being drafted for NBA/G-league as a senior. (Or at any point they can go in the first round.)
Note: If they stay in college an extra year and then go in roughly the same 2nd round draft position a year later, their G-league earnings are roughly the same, and they got an extra year of NIL.
For one, college player ranking and NBA draft position is not 1:1. Kofi was a top 5 college player, and went undrafted. Ayo was a top 2 college player and went 2nd round.
The contention you made was that NBA rookie deals and NIL deals are equivalent. That does not appear to be the case until you get to the middle or so of the 2nd round.
Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
Positionless, right?
That is not the argument I intended (or thought) I made.
I believe that the expected overall take home is higher if you stay in college than if you are drafted in the second round. This includes those who would go pretty high in the second round. This does not require the NIL/NBA pay to be 1:1. I believe that players who go in the second round would have gotten more years of NIL pay than NBA pay on average. Those who stay in college to collect the NIL may still get that NBA pay later.
This argument weakens the longer the player is in college. Will it beat the senior year NIL + possible draft the following year + extra money from having the degree beat the 2nd round draft now? I don't know.
sacraig
- The desert
Shoot more threes.
Morez will play the 3, obviously! /s
And my response would be it depends on where in the second round. In most cases for early second round, guaranteed money appears to be $3-6 million (with the possibility of much more). I don't think most guys that end up being second round draft picks are making that much in NIL in the remaining 1-3 years of their college careers.
Now we just need Goode to find some eligibility and transfer back so he can play the 2!
No secret that Morez didn’t come here to come off the bench …
Damage has been done because of that … TA leaving did not help …
Well … Hamer is the lead recruiter for now so you can imagine how that’s going …
Really depends who we hire in the off season …
As of today, I highly doubt we get him …
Ouch.....that is not a good endorsement. Why is Hamer on staff?
Thanks for the response at this point am assuming he’s not a priority target based on the lead recruiter,his game and tenacity reminds me of the younger Fears with much better shots and range.
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What is your deal with Hamer? Illinois is 7th in Team Defense Efficiency (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/defensive-efficiency) and 15th in FG % Defense (https://www.foxsports.com/articles/...ngs-team-defense-ratings-and-efficiency-stats). I think that's pretty solid for a team full of young/new guys. So just curious what your biggest issue with Hamer is.
I don't feel like I've heard a whole lot of good things about Hamer being on staff, whether it's on the coaching or recruiting side of things... Am I missing something here?
I’m not sure I’ve ever read or heard anything good about Hamer from anyone who is in the know
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