Battle89
- Cary-Grove, the better Trojan team
Gives me a big sense of foreboding when our next game is MSU, with the Ayo / Sissoko history and all. Izzo does not mind playing dirty.
Week of 1/13 Bracketology
- Status
Parrish and Norlander tearing into Indiana today. Key points:
Woodson should be fired today.
Reach out to Scott Drew to gauge interest.
Indiana may no longer be a blue blood.
Woodson should be fired today.
Reach out to Scott Drew to gauge interest.
Indiana may no longer be a blue blood.
Battle89
- Cary-Grove, the better Trojan team
They are no longer a blue blood, and have not been for a long time.may?
They May have moved closer to getting back there had they made the correct coaching decisions last year.
Soon only grandparents of recruits will remember their last title... Just in time for dementia to forget them
Now that the season is about half over (every team has played at least 15 games), I think it's actually fair to evaluate them on a bracketology level at this point.
It's still early, though, so let's take a look at just the top 4 seeds based on evaluating the top 25 teams in the NET. Why top 25? Because we're looking for the top 16 and I think the top 25 covers enough ground that we won't miss anyone egregious, with all due respect to Memphis.
The top 25 in the NET as of now consists of the following teams by conference:
- ACC: Duke (1)
- B1G: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, Wisconsin (7)
- B12: Arizona, Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech (6)
- Big East: Marquette, UConn (2)
- SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M (8)
- WCC: Gonzaga (1)
Did I mention before that it looks like the tournament field is going to be dominated by 3 conferences? Because it is. The SEC, B1G and B12 are significantly above the field this year and are on track to field between 25-30 at large spots which is crazy.
As far as ranking this field, there's one team that has effectively lapped the field by being at or near the top of every metric, along with having 9 Q1 wins already:
1. Auburn
After that, there are 4 teams that are very close in comparison. Duke has great metrics and OOC resume, but their conference is going to drag them down this year. Tennessee has looked great up until the last week, though their OOC schedule is suspect aside from the Illinois win (which I think keeps them on the top level right now). Alabama has a great resume and OOC wins, but their efficiency metrics lag a bit behind. Iowa State is solid across the board, but their OOC numbers aren't quite there yet and they don't have a signature win yet (close loss to Auburn and home win over Marquette), though they play Kansas tonight. For now they are just a half step behind the rest.
2. Duke
3. Tennessee
4. Alabama
5. Iowa State
After that, there are 3 teams that I think are close to round out the 2 seeds. Kansas had 3 clunkers that now look better in hindsight (turns out Missouri is a tough out, right Florida?), and have neutral victories over MSU and Duke that look really good right now. Florida beat Tennessee by 30 and lost at home to Missouri. Their OOC strength drags them down a bit but their overall metrics are solid. Marquette is the class of the Big East and narrowly avoided a bad loss to DePaul. Their metrics lag a bit behind and the down Big East isn't going to help them as much as it would in past years, but they have good OOC wins against Wisconsin, Purdue and Maryland and if they dominate the Big East they'll finish top 2 seed for sure.
6. Kansas
7. Marquette
8. Florida
Before you start complaining there are no B1G teams in the top 2 seeds, keep in mind that for much of the OOC, few thought the B1G had any top 20 teams, let alone top 10. Several are right on the cusp here, just a bit behind the top 8. Illinois is currently a metrics darling due to their good blowout wins, but their overall resume lags behind a bit (if only they had held on against Tennessee!). Purdue had a rough patch at the end of the OOC schedule, but look much better now overall. Michigan has good metrics but failed in their only 3 Q1 opportunities in OOC. MSU had a pretty meh non-conference with a couple middling wins (North Carolina, Colorado) but have looked like world beaters since conference play started. Oregon had by far the best OOC of the bunch, but have eked out a lot of close wins lately to hurt their metrics and took a 30 point home loss to Illinois. They're all fairly close overall, but I don't think they're all 3 seeds either, as Kentucky continues to look good and is right in line with this group. So here's what I think for the 3 seeds:
9. Kentucky
10. Purdue
11. Oregon
12. Illinois (yes, they won at Oregon by 30 which gets them this close)
After that, it gets extremely close and tough to call. On top of MSU and Michigan which I already mentioned, there are 3 SEC teams with near identical profiles. Ole Miss just got the great road win at Alabama which probably makes them the next best option (and yes they won an exhibition game against Illinois that doesn't count in consideration and should not). Mississippi State is miles better than anyone thought at the start of the season, but their OOC schedule was based on their perception coming into the season and will be an anchor over their head for any bracket discussion. Plus now they've lost their last 2 games to teams above them and thus have missed opportunities to improve their standing. Texas A&M has neutral court victories over Purdue and Texas Tech, but lost to UCF and haven't beaten a good SEC team yet. Beyond the B1G and SEC, Gonzaga is their usual quality self, but the WCC is slightly down this year even after adding Washington State and Oregon State (go figure), so it'll be difficult to build the resume beyond what they already have. Houston has dominant metrics but their resume is nowhere near good enough yet. UConn gets no credit for prior years' performance, and this year's OOC just isn't there, especially after their faceplant in Maui. Maryland, Wisconsin, Texas Tech and Baylor are just a bit behind the rest.
So my 4 seeds are:
13. Ole Miss
14. Michigan State
15. Texas A&M
16. Mississippi State
Granted, it's still just January 15 and many things can happen and change. Michigan and Houston are very good teams that just need to build resumes, which they'll be able to do here pretty quickly in conference. Gonzaga is going to get killed by their SOS this season and end up a dangerous 6ish seed. I think some of these SEC teams will slide once they start beating each other up, especially if their top 4 remain so dominant.
It's still early, though, so let's take a look at just the top 4 seeds based on evaluating the top 25 teams in the NET. Why top 25? Because we're looking for the top 16 and I think the top 25 covers enough ground that we won't miss anyone egregious, with all due respect to Memphis.
The top 25 in the NET as of now consists of the following teams by conference:
- ACC: Duke (1)
- B1G: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, Wisconsin (7)
- B12: Arizona, Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech (6)
- Big East: Marquette, UConn (2)
- SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M (8)
- WCC: Gonzaga (1)
Did I mention before that it looks like the tournament field is going to be dominated by 3 conferences? Because it is. The SEC, B1G and B12 are significantly above the field this year and are on track to field between 25-30 at large spots which is crazy.
As far as ranking this field, there's one team that has effectively lapped the field by being at or near the top of every metric, along with having 9 Q1 wins already:
1. Auburn
After that, there are 4 teams that are very close in comparison. Duke has great metrics and OOC resume, but their conference is going to drag them down this year. Tennessee has looked great up until the last week, though their OOC schedule is suspect aside from the Illinois win (which I think keeps them on the top level right now). Alabama has a great resume and OOC wins, but their efficiency metrics lag a bit behind. Iowa State is solid across the board, but their OOC numbers aren't quite there yet and they don't have a signature win yet (close loss to Auburn and home win over Marquette), though they play Kansas tonight. For now they are just a half step behind the rest.
2. Duke
3. Tennessee
4. Alabama
5. Iowa State
After that, there are 3 teams that I think are close to round out the 2 seeds. Kansas had 3 clunkers that now look better in hindsight (turns out Missouri is a tough out, right Florida?), and have neutral victories over MSU and Duke that look really good right now. Florida beat Tennessee by 30 and lost at home to Missouri. Their OOC strength drags them down a bit but their overall metrics are solid. Marquette is the class of the Big East and narrowly avoided a bad loss to DePaul. Their metrics lag a bit behind and the down Big East isn't going to help them as much as it would in past years, but they have good OOC wins against Wisconsin, Purdue and Maryland and if they dominate the Big East they'll finish top 2 seed for sure.
6. Kansas
7. Marquette
8. Florida
Before you start complaining there are no B1G teams in the top 2 seeds, keep in mind that for much of the OOC, few thought the B1G had any top 20 teams, let alone top 10. Several are right on the cusp here, just a bit behind the top 8. Illinois is currently a metrics darling due to their good blowout wins, but their overall resume lags behind a bit (if only they had held on against Tennessee!). Purdue had a rough patch at the end of the OOC schedule, but look much better now overall. Michigan has good metrics but failed in their only 3 Q1 opportunities in OOC. MSU had a pretty meh non-conference with a couple middling wins (North Carolina, Colorado) but have looked like world beaters since conference play started. Oregon had by far the best OOC of the bunch, but have eked out a lot of close wins lately to hurt their metrics and took a 30 point home loss to Illinois. They're all fairly close overall, but I don't think they're all 3 seeds either, as Kentucky continues to look good and is right in line with this group. So here's what I think for the 3 seeds:
9. Kentucky
10. Purdue
11. Oregon
12. Illinois (yes, they won at Oregon by 30 which gets them this close)
After that, it gets extremely close and tough to call. On top of MSU and Michigan which I already mentioned, there are 3 SEC teams with near identical profiles. Ole Miss just got the great road win at Alabama which probably makes them the next best option (and yes they won an exhibition game against Illinois that doesn't count in consideration and should not). Mississippi State is miles better than anyone thought at the start of the season, but their OOC schedule was based on their perception coming into the season and will be an anchor over their head for any bracket discussion. Plus now they've lost their last 2 games to teams above them and thus have missed opportunities to improve their standing. Texas A&M has neutral court victories over Purdue and Texas Tech, but lost to UCF and haven't beaten a good SEC team yet. Beyond the B1G and SEC, Gonzaga is their usual quality self, but the WCC is slightly down this year even after adding Washington State and Oregon State (go figure), so it'll be difficult to build the resume beyond what they already have. Houston has dominant metrics but their resume is nowhere near good enough yet. UConn gets no credit for prior years' performance, and this year's OOC just isn't there, especially after their faceplant in Maui. Maryland, Wisconsin, Texas Tech and Baylor are just a bit behind the rest.
So my 4 seeds are:
13. Ole Miss
14. Michigan State
15. Texas A&M
16. Mississippi State
Granted, it's still just January 15 and many things can happen and change. Michigan and Houston are very good teams that just need to build resumes, which they'll be able to do here pretty quickly in conference. Gonzaga is going to get killed by their SOS this season and end up a dangerous 6ish seed. I think some of these SEC teams will slide once they start beating each other up, especially if their top 4 remain so dominant.
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
We're 8th in NET and 4th in Torvik, both of which are things that the selection committee looks at, so I'd put us in the Top 8 if they were seeding today.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Nice work! My only comment is this. I'll project Illinois by season's end moving up to either #8 or #9.
Our seeding range is probably still a 1-seed thru a 6-seed.
They're also 26th in SOR and 21st in WAB which are also things that the selection committee looks at. They'll have opportunities to bulid the resume, but the resume metrics are behind the top 8 for sure right now.
Did the play a recording from 10 years ago for that part of the segment? LOL
Always love how fans (of all teams) only like to point out the metrics that make their team of choice look best and ignore the rest.
The Athletic is mostly in line with your analysis. They have more SEC teams on the 3 line and Illinois on the 4 line.
As it stands today, we have 8 Q1 games, 5 Q2 games, and 1 Q3 game remaining in our regular season. But the same thing can be said about most B10 and SEC teams so we just need to take care of our business.
The Duke game is an especially golden opportunity. That's going to be an extremely tough game to win but it would be a boon to our resume.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
If the seeding were today, then the Illini would be a low 3 seed at best and most likely in the 4 seed range (about exactly where @Piotyr projects). The NET and Torvik ranking do not mean everything. Quad wins (and losses) matter as well when considering resumes, in additional to other available metrics mentioned in a post above mine. The USC loss (currently a quad 2 loss but could still easily drop into the Quad 3 status if USC starts losing again) at home is what knocks the Illini down from a projected 2 seed (at least at this point). If NET and Torvik were the only thing that mattered then Houston would be a 1 seed (1 Torvik and 3 NET), but yet they are 0-3 in the Quad 1 games that mattered, which is what knocks them down to a projection anywhere from a 3 seed to 5 seed.
Our USC loss is now a Q2 loss
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
Indiana is still a blue blood in the same way the Grand Duchess Anastasia and the Romanovs are blue bloods: history notes they once existed, but it means nothing of consequence today.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
Yep, just need a 6 game winning streak to end the year
I would prefer a 9+ game winning streak (don't forget about the Big Ten Tournament)
Chad Fleck
- Eureka, IL
Tearing into the Indiana is the the one thing that makes a Parrish podcast consumable. His bit when talking about their fanbase is great.
DevILLDawg
- Meredosia, Illinois
I like us in the 2 seed
Agreed, don't think a one seed wins it this year. Time for a reset after the UConn run
My eyes tell me Michigan is good but as the season is going along you kinda got squint to find anything very good on their resume…
2 losses to Arkansas & Oklahoma who are now a combined 0-8 in the SEC
A loss to Wake to open the season who, although are 13-4, their other wins of note are… NC State & Stanford?
UCLA win is aging like spoiled milk…
Virginia Tech is 8-9
So that really leaves Wisconsin, Iowa & USC as key wins for them…. 2 of which very well are both on the outside looking in of the bracket was revealed today…
Then you’ve got Sparty who have yet to beat a B1G team who is currently over .500 in conference play.. lol. On top of that, their “marquee” win is against a UNC team who already has dropped 6 games… and high and mighty Colorado who is 0-5 in the B12..
Should we keep going?
Purdue has won 5 of their 6 league games against teams that are a combined 11-33 in league play…
They have 2 great wins over Alabama & Ole Miss but also got waxed by every other good team they’ve played so far…
What are we scared of?
2 losses to Arkansas & Oklahoma who are now a combined 0-8 in the SEC
A loss to Wake to open the season who, although are 13-4, their other wins of note are… NC State & Stanford?
UCLA win is aging like spoiled milk…
Virginia Tech is 8-9
So that really leaves Wisconsin, Iowa & USC as key wins for them…. 2 of which very well are both on the outside looking in of the bracket was revealed today…
Then you’ve got Sparty who have yet to beat a B1G team who is currently over .500 in conference play.. lol. On top of that, their “marquee” win is against a UNC team who already has dropped 6 games… and high and mighty Colorado who is 0-5 in the B12..
Should we keep going?
Purdue has won 5 of their 6 league games against teams that are a combined 11-33 in league play…
They have 2 great wins over Alabama & Ole Miss but also got waxed by every other good team they’ve played so far…
What are we scared of?
Losing to Northwestern and USC…
Sure. We’re also 3-1 against current top half teams in the league. Also USC loss won’t be a bad loss by years end and we didn’t have KJ. We’ve without a doubt proved the most so far.
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