I think a big problem with our 11am tip slow start issues stems from a combination of the early start itself, a low energy crowd, and an opponent we take too lightly.
The three prime examples we love to point to are December of 2022 against Penn State, January of 2024 against Maryland and last week against USC.
Penn State ended up being a really good team, but at that time they were looked at as an east opponent especially at home and clearly the Illini players thought so too after a big win over Texas at MSG. The game was December 10th so the students were there but it's close to winter break so they may have not been as invested, especially against an unranked, non-rival opponent. Obviously there was the Coleman Hawkins birthday outing from the night before that just made things worse as well.
Against Maryland last January, we were still missing TSJ and did not know if we would ever be back. No traditional student section because of winter break and once again we were facing a team that had been struggling, and we were riding high off a big home win over Michigan State a couple nights before. Unlike the other two examples, we actually got off to a great start but the final 30 minutes were really rough.
USC had a similar reputation to Penn State and Maryland in terms of being a lower tier team that we should handle without much trouble especially after dominating Penn State a few days prior. An overconfident group without their best player in front of a quiet crowd without a full student section led to another early tip disaster.
But this game against MSU does not have any of the same trappings outside of the fact that it is an early tip off. The Spartans are ranked higher than us and we are on the road in a legendary building against a Hall of Fame coach on CBS, so the team knows they will need to play their best.
Confidence is high after a big road win in a tough place to play at Assembly Hall, but a one game win streak is not going to make them overconfident. The USC letdown should be fresh on their minds.
And the Breslin crowd is going to be loud and full of energy, which will hopefully translate into getting our guys fired up to quiet them down a la Trent Frazier.
None of this means we will win. We could even end up losing by double digits like we did last week, but I would be shocked if we look as low energy and disinterested as we did in any of those previous three early tip defeats. I'm excited for this one!