Pregame: Illinois vs Maryland, Thursday, January 23rd, 8:00pm CT, FS1

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#152      
TheodoreRex
-9.5 seemed extremely high to me. Maryland is very talented and will absolutely present a challenge to us. This game feels like PSU did to me, I hope our team comes out and blows the doors off again. I do think we will have a pissed off & intense KJ tonight.
 
#156      
Battle89
Brosky said:
Now WE give opponents the "positional size problems."
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#161      
Fighter of the Nightman
JFGsCoffeeMug said:
If we put together a significant win-streak and also beat Duke at MSG, I like our chances at a 1-seed.
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We are #8 in the NET Rankings and have 6 Quad 1 games and 7 Quad 2 games left. If we were to finish the year with only 1 more regular season loss and beat Duke (let's say we lose at Michigan), we'd have this resume ... for simplicity's sake, let's say we win a Quad 1 game in the BTT and lose a Quad 1 game in the BTT. For comparison, I also added our 2020-21 #1 seed team (which obviously had a shorter season) and our #3 seed team from last year:

Potential 2025 Resume
#3-7 NET Ranking?
26-7 overall
10-6 vs. Quad 1
10-1 vs. Quad 2
0-0 vs. Quad 3
6-0 vs. Quad 4

#1 Seed in 2021
#3 NET Ranking
23-6 overall
12-5 vs. Quad 1
5-1 vs. Quad 2
4-0 vs. Quad 3
2-0 vs. Quad 4

#3 Seed in 2024
#13 NET Ranking
26-8 overall
8-6 vs. Quad 1
6-1 vs. Quad 2
7-1 vs. Quad 3
5-0 vs. Quad 4

I actually forgot that the 2024 team had a Quad 3 loss, lol (and as of today, USC is now Quad 2!!). Not sure if this is visually helpful to anyone, but here is each team's comparison by category:

2021 #1 seed ... 2024 #3 seed ... 2025 TBD

NET Ranking: #3 ... ~#5 ... #13
Overall Record: 23-6 ... 26-7 ... 26-8
Q1 Record: 12-5 ... 10-6 ... 8-6
Q2 Record: 10-1 ... 6-1 ... 5-1
Q3 Record: 4-0 ... 0-0 ... 7-1
Q4 Record: 6-0 ... 5-0 ... 2-0

So, this super high-level comparison seems to indeed suggest we would mostly be in between a #1 and a #3 seed (i.e., a #2 seed), but possibly knocking on the door of that #1 seed. What other teams do will obviously be very important. It is worth noting that in 2021, the #1 seeds appeared pretty damn ironclad. The top 4 in the NET that year (#1 Gonzaga, #2 Baylor, #3 Illinois and #4 Michigan) were SO easy to pick as the four #1 seeds, with #5 Houston only having 2 Quad 1 wins (compared to 8 for Baylor/Gonzaga/Michigan and 12 Illinois). So, it would help our case if we could get a bit of a "mess" at the top rather than be vying for 1-2 spots.

However, I think the most likely scenario is that Duke and Auburn have pretty clear #1 seeds locked up. So then the race is on for the next two spots. Personally, give me a #2 seed or a #3 seed again (they're effectively the same, assuming you can get past your First Round opponent...), and I am ecstatic.
 
#167      
Brosky
Is it the consensus that Tomi won't be playing tonite? What a bummer that would be. Morez is strong and a tenacious rebounder, but not an offensive threat. You have to guard Tomi on the perimeter, but not Morez. And he's always got foul troubles.
 
#169      
Fighter of the Nightman
RockfordIllini said:
Underwood was pretty diplomatic in his presser, but you can tell he’s really ticked about the fouls that were called on KJ. Sounds like the response from the league was a shrug and a “you got jobbed. Sorry.”

We will need to go nuclear and go on a run like 2021 to win the BIG, but if the team is half as p*ssed as Underwood seems to be I think we can do it. Let’s start tonight.
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Honestly, while I am not necessarily expecting it ... it can certainly be done. In 2021, we started our epic run to end the season after two straight home losses to unranked Maryland on January 10th and #21 Ohio State on January 16th. It was our January 19th home game vs. PSU and then #7 Iowa the following weekend where we got things right ... it's actually eerily similar timing, and a similarly frustrating set of losses could serve as motivation for both squads.

Also, the path that 2021 team had in front of them was much more difficult. We won 14 of 15 games counting the BTT, and that included 7 victories over top 25 teams, 5 victories vs. top 10 teams and 2 victories vs. top 5 teams (both of the latter being away from home. Even though that team will always have the Loyola debacle to contend with, this was genuinely one of the most enjoyable stretches of basketball in Illini history, at least in isolation:

*Ayo hurt on 2/23 in a loss at MSU*

2/25 - W 86-70 vs. Nebraska (without Ayo)
2/27 - W 74-69 at #23 Wisconsin (without Ayo)
3/2 - W 76-53 at #2 Michigan (without Ayo)

*Ayo returns with the iconic mask*

3/6 - W 73-68 at #7 Ohio State
3/12 - W 90-68 vs. Rutgers in BTT Quarterfinals
3/13 - W 82-71 vs. #5 Iowa in BTT Semifinals
3/14 - W 91-88 in OT vs. #9 Ohio State in BTT Championship

7 games in 18 days, with only ONE in Champaign, and our star player out for three of them. With that in front of us, we went 7-0, defeated 5 ranked teams ALL away from home, dominated faux-champion #2 Michigan on its home floor without Ayo and swept through the BTT to hang a banner by beating our biggest rival and getting revenge vs. OSU. Just amazing.
 
#170      
thefalcon5
Brosky said:
Is it the consensus that Tomi won't be playing tonite? What a bummer that would be. Morez is strong and a tenacious rebounder, but not an offensive threat. You have to guard Tomi on the perimeter, but not Morez. And he's always got foul troubles.
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This feels like putting the cart before the horse based off a single comment here.
 
#171      
Toews
This is a really big game. A quad 1 opportunity at home and we don't really have a ton of those left. Especially after the MSU gut punch we really really need this one.
 
#172      
Old Farm Illini
1m4tr said:
If Tomi is out we will see Ben at the 5 some tonight and Tre at the 4. Morez won’t be able to play 40.
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I like Tre against Reece. If Tre comes out strong, Reece can quickly get into foul trouble. Queen is going to get his buckets in the paint but I think Ben will be the better of the two and be an effective stretch 5. There are going to be a lot of times where Queen is going to bully Ben but I can live with that as long as he can stay in the game and avoid foul trouble. If Boswell can do his best to contain Gillespie, this could be a blow out.
 
#173      
FromTheLogo
We just don't play well against Maryland. Our interior defense struggles WITH Tomi, let alone without him. This makes me nervous, but gotta go with the good guys.

Illini: 83
Maryland: 82
 
#174      
blife
Is Booth ready to see some minutes? If no Tomi he may have to play some.
 
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