Let's ignore the recruiting ranking funny business for a second and reflect on the 2025 B1G class rankings.
Illinois finished 12th (out of 18) in recruiting ranking and had two 4-stars (Trimble and Beerman). Seeing the pending recruiting wave upcoming for Illinois, it's obvious that this class is going to elevate above previous years, but how much can they realistically rise? Let's do a breakdown. The 2025 class has six (!) teams who secured 10+ 4-star recruits:
Ohio State (19)
Penn State (19)
Oregon (17)
Michigan (14)
USC (12)
Nebraska (11)
Looking at the 2024 class and it's a slightly different list (swap in Wisconsin for Nebraska), but the same threshold. Therefore, to break into the top 1/3 of the conference requires 10+ 4-star recruits. Is that feasible in the 2026 class? That seems like a really tall task. Assuming everything goes Illinois' way this cycle, with two current commits bumped up to 4*, then they get Rankin, Thomas, Blade, Anderson, Sutter, Alexander, and Pritchard, and then win the lottery and get Singleton, that would put them at 10. That's almost a clean sweep of every top target. I'm hopeful like all of you but that seems improbable, and maybe more of a very aggressive goal for 2027 if the '26 season goes swimmingly. So let's dive into the next tier of B1G teams based on the '25 rankings:
Washington (8)
Wisconsin (8)
Maryland (5)
Iowa (5)
Rutgers (4)
This seems realistic, especially the bottom three teams. In fact, I'll go further and say falling below the 4-5 4-star threshold this year would be a disappointment (and a cold realization that the climb up the mountain is steep). Now catching Wisconsin or Washington's 8 is a good, possibly too aggressive goal. Putting it into context - (a) get one of the current commits to bump up to 4-star (1) + Thomas (2) + Rankin (3) + Anderson (4) + Alexander (5) + Tilson (6) + Gebhardt (7) + Riordan (8). That would be a reallllllly good haul, but also requires some luck with landing all of these guys and a few of them getting bumped up (Alexander, Gebhardt, Tilson, and Riordan). All that said, the arbitrary cut-off between 4-star and high 3-star is a silly cutoff to assess, and I'm a "follow the offers and visits" guy to the end, but this is still an important talent barometer to follow as the spring and summer march on.