Week of 1/27 Bracketology

Status
Not open for further replies.
#1      

Dan

Dan
Admin
Dan
#2      
Turn N’ Burn
I need to preface this take with the following: “It is TOO early to really think/care about seeding but….” it is my personal opinion that Illinois would do best at either making a bit of a run to get a 3 seed or falling back and landing on a 6 seed line. The 4/5 seeds matchups are always brutal and as the season continues to plays out, there are 3 or 4 teams that look to be head and shoulders above the rest right now that will land on the 1 seed line. Would like to stay on the opposite side of the bracket for a potential elite eight matchup where you finally run into one of those teams. Then you hope and pray they don’t go on a 25+ point unanswered run during the game…
 
#3      
Illini2010-11
Turn N’ Burn said:
I need to preface this take with the following: “It is TOO early to really think/care about seeding but….” it is my personal opinion that Illinois would do best at either making a bit of a run to get a 3 seed or falling back and landing on a 6 seed line. The 4/5 seeds matchups are always brutal and as the season continues to plays out, there are 3 or 4 teams that look to be head and shoulders above the rest right now that will land on the 1 seed line. Would like to stay on the opposite side of the bracket for a potential elite eight matchup where you finally run into one of those teams. Then you hope and pray they don’t go on a 25+ point unanswered run during the game…
Click to expand...
I disagree completely with wanting to fall back to a 6 seed than potentially be a 4 or 5 seed. I believe that this team could actually compete with anyone; so I am not so much worried about matchups. However, the data does indicate that being a 4 seed is substantially preferred than being a 6 seed, whereas the difference from being a 5 or 6 seed is not too different (but still preferred to being a 5 seed).

www.ncaa.com

Records for every seed in March Madness from 1985 to 2025

These are the all-time, round-by-round records for every seed in the March Madness men's tournament from 1985 (when the field expanded) to 2025.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com

*Note that this does not include results from last season.
 
#4      
DeonThomas
Dan said:
Illinois a 4 seed in the Bracket Matrix
bracketmatrix.com

Illinois #10 in the NET Rankings
www.ncaa.com

DI Men's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Men's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today Coaches poll and the NCAA NET Rankings.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com
S

Big Ten Tournament Bracket Generator

mred's Big 10 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
Click to expand...
So I open the Big10 Tournament Seed Calculator --- and we're favored to win all 10 remaining conference games!?

16-4 in conference. #3 seed behind MSU and Purdue.
 
#5      
DeonThomas
Illini2010-11 said:
I disagree completely with wanting to fall back to a 6 seed than potentially be a 4 or 5 seed. I believe that this team could actually compete with anyone; so I am not so much worried about matchups. However, the data does indicate that being a 4 seed is substantially preferred than being a 6 seed, whereas the difference from being a 5 or 6 seed is not too different (but still preferred to being a 5 seed).

www.ncaa.com

Records for every seed in March Madness from 1985 to 2025

These are the all-time, round-by-round records for every seed in the March Madness men's tournament from 1985 (when the field expanded) to 2025.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com

*Note that this does not include results from last season.
Click to expand...
For the absolute best odds, it looks like we need to work our way to a #1 seed in the Big Dance!
 
#7      
Illini2010-11
Illinialldayeveryday said:
There is a chance we would have played 3 of the 1 seeds in the noncon this year.
Click to expand...
Yes, there is a chance, but Tennessee is quickly working their way into being a 2 seed. Just can't see the SEC getting more than 2 teams as a 1 seed, and Auburn is almost a near lock for a 1 seed, as is Duke (unless either of them really falter).

The greater likelihood for 1 seeds: SEC gets two teams as a 1 seed (Auburn and Alabama/Florida/Tennessee), Duke, and then the B12 (Iowa State/Houston).

But yes, the Illini have played some top tier talent in the non-conference season this year. Hopefully the Illini get a win in one of those when they go to MSG next month.
 
Last edited:
#9      
AyoDos11
Illinialldayeveryday said:
I wonder when CBS does their top 16 seed reveal, usually a few weeks out from selection sunday.
Click to expand...
Last year it was on Saturday, February 17th, or 4 weeks before SS. That means this year it should be on February 15th.
 
#10      
jamie13197
Just had time to watch Northwestern game. Giving up 53 points to kittycats in second half is painful. Dgl's defense was outstanding. Poor Riley looks lost like Tom Hanks in Castaway. Hang in there young man. Mj growing each game, will be huge if we can get Tomi back healthy by March. Could be a massive blessing as long as Tomi doesn't look horrible coming back. Enjoyed most watching Brad stalk sidelines more this game. I miss the fight me in the parking lot coach.
 
#11      
Epsilon
Thank goodness USC fought their way to a quad 2 loss. Much better for us than the quad 3 loss we were looking at.
 
#12      
Illini2010-11
Epsilon said:
Thank goodness USC fought their way to a quad 2 loss. Much better for us than the quad 3 loss we were looking at.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, that loss can easily flip to a quad 3 loss in a heartbeat. USC is right on the cutoff line for quad 2/quad 3 loss (USC is currently NET 75). My guess is that we will not know how that loss will classify until late Feb/early March, especially if USC continues to hover around the NET 75 number. In any event, I doubt that game has much an impact on Illinois at the end of the day, with relation to seeding purposes.
 
#13      
Fighter of the Nightman
Illini2010-11 said:
Unfortunately, that loss can easily flip to a quad 3 loss in a heartbeat. USC is right on the cutoff line for quad 2/quad 3 loss (USC is currently NET 75). My guess is that we will not know how that loss will classify until late Feb/early March, especially if USC continues to hover around the NET 75 number. In any event, I doubt that game has much an impact on Illinois at the end of the day, with relation to seeding purposes.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I remember seeing once that the Committee uses nuance for results that are super close to being in one Quad vs. another ... in other words, they aren't just going to totally drop Illinois a seed line if USC drops from #75 to #76 on Selection Sunday. With that said, USC is #75 today, and these are their remaining games ... while they're playing better, we should expect it to end up a Quad 3 loss, IMO:

vs. #17 Michigan State (Q1)
at #49 Northwestern (Q1)
at #9 Purdue (Q1)
vs. #51 Penn State (Q2)
vs. #96 Minnesota (Q3)
at #19 Maryland (Q1)
at #82 Rutgers (Q2)
vs. #29 Ohio State (Q1)
at #27 Oregon (Q1)
vs. #98 Washington (Q3)
at #33 UCLA (Q1)

I'm hopeful they can do enough to remain in the top 75, but I'm not confident. Ironically, as of now ... our home loss to Maryland isn't even CLOSE to a bad loss, and Missouri is one of our best wins!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back