Pregame: Illinois at Minnesota, Saturday, February 8th, 5:00pm CT, BTN

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#52      
I have no expectations of another win this season on merit. A resounding poor performance by an opponent would be possible, however I believe the blood in the water will trigger a frenzy.

Can't recall a lack of concern or effort on the part of an Illinois team like this. Guess shouldn't pay in advance maybe.
 
#53      
I think we are going to get beat down at Minnesota. And BTW, on another topic, can we cancel the Duke game? It was looking like a cool matchup a month ago, but now its just going to be an embarrassment.
 
#54      
“We were very intentional in our recruiting positional size and three point shooting,” said Illinois head coach Brad Underwood Underwood.

“We didn't want to put people out here who couldn't shoot.”
 
#58      
Below are Illinois transfers over the last 5 years

This shows transfers 3P% before Illinois and while at Illinois. Only 3 players shot better at Illinois

Lots of things go into 3P% (including just normal variance) but on average players have shot 4.2% worse at Illinois

IMG_6761.png
 
#60      
Below are Illinois transfers over the last 5 years

This shows transfers 3P% before Illinois and while at Illinois. Only 3 players shot better at Illinois

Lots of things go into 3P% (including just normal variance) but on average players have shot 4.2% worse at Illinois

View attachment 39452
We are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the entire country. We don’t have 1 single 3 point shooter in the top 40 of the BIG


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#61      
When a single player is shooting poorly, that's on the player. When nearly everyone is struggling, that's on the program.
Bingo. Also makes me wonder if it is something with our pre-game routine or strength training, a majority of our looks are open (of course there are some bad 3s jacked up) and we have seen a few examples of shooting well below their average this year.
 
#62      
Agree …

Put your players in a position to succeed and more often than not you’ll find success …
Our setup passes to our three point shooters have not been good the last few years. Several times we have guys that are open yet can't get the shot off because of the location of the pass. Or they just go ahead and put it up being off balance or out of rythem. If you notice, it seems the the programs that have continued success with the threes, their passing is usually very precise allowing their shooters to go straight into their shot. Either we don't emphasis it or work on it enough to be consistent at it. Just a little thing that could help out a lot.
 
#63      
I don't buy that JK is 100% healthy. He hasn't been the same since the UW game. Even yesterday clearly favoring the L hand, not reaching it out to get lifted up off the floor by teammates trying to lend a hand. Dribbling with less precision and power leading to more turnovers. Calling him healthy smells like preserving his NBA stock by denying extent of injury, and not having the current depth on the team to sit him and trust that we can do well without him.
 
#65      
Our setup passes to our three point shooters have not been good the last few years. Several times we have guys that are open yet can't get the shot off because of the location of the pass. Or they just go ahead and put it up being off balance or out of rythem. If you notice, it seems the the programs that have continued success with the threes, their passing is usually very precise allowing their shooters to go straight into their shot. Either we don't emphasis it or work on it enough to be consistent at it. Just a little thing that could help out a lot.
They throw a lot of 1 handed passes.

They stand completely still to space the floor in the corners and on the weak side instead of moving, backpicking for one another, or even sliding a bit and resetting to make a little more space.

Also, Illinois gets open looks, but they also take at least a handful of TERRIBLE threes every game. Like 4% expected make pct. If you’re taking 15 good threes a game at 40% and and 5 bad ones at 4% you’ll be 31% even though there are a lot of “good” threes mixed in. I made those numbers up, but I think it represents the disconnect people feel and explains why good shooters get worse at Illinois (along with the other points which erode the percentage of the “good” threes too).


See Boswell with about 6 minutes left last night. When you don’t hardly ever manufacture open shots with motion you get really stagnant when you’re missing playmakers (ie KJ) because they are resting or in foul trouble.
 
#66      
There’s a time I would have agreed with you about shooting 3s at the rate of Grinnell, but now, I’m sick of so much 3 pointers being taken. It’s boring as heck and I believe a good part of the reason NBA ratings are down. There’s no movement and no creativity. Boring ball. Might as well watch the WNBA. Ok…that’s a big stretch.
 
#68      
If Illinois doesn’t win both of their next two, they won’t be in the tourney. They only have three “wins” (loosely) left on their schedule (those two plus Iowa). Even with 1 win in the tourney that only gets them to 19 which would be borderline. Lose one of these next two and the odds they make it into the tourney at all drop to probably less than 10%.
 
#69      
If Illinois doesn’t win both of their next two, they won’t be in the tourney. They only have three “wins” (loosely) left on their schedule (those two plus Iowa). Even with 1 win in the tourney that only gets them to 19 which would be borderline. Lose one of these next two and the odds they make it into the tourney at all drop to probably less than 10%.
That's not how Selection Sunday works.
 
#70      
is what’s happening a big surprise? At the beginning of the season, would/did you not think with such a young roster and only one returning player that we’d win and lose games that we shouldn’t yet should be competitive against most everybody? The only for sure loss is Duke IMO. We’re capable of winning any of the other games. We’re also capable of losing quite a few. But, again, is this not what most of you anticipated prior to the start of the season?
 
#71      
Yes it is. 19 wins even with a tough schedule is borderline.

Last year 1 team made it with 19 wins. Michigan state. Next closest was 21 wins.

The year before that 4 teams made it with 19 wins. WVU, Michigan State, Iowa Stare, and Iowa.

Going back much further becomes less relevant because of conference realignment, but getting in with 19 wins is getting harder not easier.

Illinois probably gets in with 19 wins. But it is not even close to guaranteed. Aka, borderline.
 
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#72      
is what’s happening a big surprise? At the beginning of the season, would/did you not think with such a young roster and only one returning player that we’d win and lose games that we shouldn’t yet should be competitive against most everybody? The only for sure loss is Duke IMO. We’re capable of winning any of the other games. We’re also capable of losing quite a few. But, again, is this not what most of you anticipated prior to the start of the season?
No one here expected this team to be the worst 3p shooting team in the B10 (and one of the worst nationally). Which is arguably #1/#2 reason the record is what it is.
 
#73      
is what’s happening a big surprise? At the beginning of the season, would/did you not think with such a young roster and only one returning player that we’d win and lose games that we shouldn’t yet should be competitive against most everybody? The only for sure loss is Duke IMO. We’re capable of winning any of the other games. We’re also capable of losing quite a few. But, again, is this not what most of you anticipated prior to the start of the season?
Am I surprised? Ya, pretty surprised at how poorly we are playing on Feb 6 after playing very well from Thanksgiving to Jan 8th with a Net rank in the top ten and arguably some of the most talent we have ever had. Really surprised we have not seen gradual improvement in play, but rather we have severely regressed in many areas the past 4 weeks. Very surprised the coaching staff, who by its own words, told us at the beginning of the year it was "built for March" now has a team that looks like a tournament bubble team going into the home stretch of the regular season. All around pretty surprising. Not at all what I anticipated prior to the season.
 
#74      
is what’s happening a big surprise? At the beginning of the season, would/did you not think with such a young roster and only one returning player that we’d win and lose games that we shouldn’t yet should be competitive against most everybody? The only for sure loss is Duke IMO. We’re capable of winning any of the other games. We’re also capable of losing quite a few. But, again, is this not what most of you anticipated prior to the start of the season?
Yes. I'm surprised that we're clearly regressing this late in the season. Most (good) teams get better as the season progresses and certainly you'd think that would be true of a talented team who just lacks chemistry. It's not even that we're inconsistent anymore really. It's that we're starting to be bad more consistently.

Although, maybe you are onto something. Maybe we should've seen this coming. 2024 was the only year since Ayo left that we've gotten better after January 1st. Every other year, even the championship year of 2022, we declined as the season wore on.
 
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