what are the BTT scenarios looking like?
Week of 2/17 Bracketology
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Curbelo Fanboy
BERTBALL IS LIFE
This has the look of a team that belongs in Dayton IMHO. I know about the good net rating and all that but a team thats probably gonna be 19-14 with an utter collapse in February/March belongs in Dayton at best.
For simplicity, let's say we at least beat Iowa. That would give us at least 10 conference wins, and pretty much lock us into the 7-10 seeds. The other teams competing for those seeds are Oregon, tOSU, and Nebraska.
After playing around with the simulator, it looks like Nebraska wins any combination of tiebreakers with us. But we win tiebreakers over tOSU and Oregon.
I really want that 7 seed, because it keeps us out of the dreaded 8/9 11am game. So we need to finish ahead of Nebby and, at minimum, tie with Oregon and tOSU.
Also all of that is assuming nothing crazy happens like Maryland/UCLA losing out our Indiana/Minny/USC winning out.
DevILLDawg
- Meredosia, Illinois
This team has 2023 Arkansas #9 seed written all over it. Just depends if they can get Defense figured out.
I actually thought for the most part they looked better from 3. Partially, because of shot selection. That's a low bar, of course.
I actually thought for the most part they looked better from 3. Partially, because of shot selection. That's a low bar, of course.
Also had 2023 Illinois written all over it. I hope you are right
DevILLDawg
- Meredosia, Illinois
It'd be funny if we caught a 10 then 15 seed and had some tournament luck in the first weekend. Certainly, be warranted after some tough luck the first 3 years Brad made it.
Going down exactly like two years ago...
Get old stay old turned into get young were done
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Kind of going more with my "gut" here than anything else, but I feel shocking Duke is our only real ticket out of the 8/9 danger zone ... so yeah, prepare yourselves!
Is there really much of a difference for this team between a 7 seed and a 8/9 seed? This team, at this point in time, appears incapable of stringing together two wins against quality competition. While anything can happen, I think the line on number of wins we get in the tourney is 0.5, regardless of where we are seeded. I don't know, maybe the best result we can hope for is a first round victory followed by a moral victory in the second round, which any returning players can carry into next season. In which case, would it be better to test our mettle against the best possible competition in the hope if sparks something the team can build on? Probably not, but just a thought.
If we want out of the 8/9 game, we need 2-2 in the last four for sure. Metrics would probably save us if we can do that
Utter pipe dream rn.
To win 2 more, I think the most likely would be Iowa and Purdue. I don't see Hum guarding Wolf or Goldin.
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
More of a comment than a complaint . . .but point taken.
Let's just say the Illini win on of the last 4 games [Iowa] that would give them a 18-13 record. Then comes the BiG tourney where I still am not sure they could win a single game. That would make them 18-14. Is that really good enough to get into the NCAA tourney. Some would say yes because of their quad 1 wins and the tough schedule they played. Then some might consider that some of their losses were without some of their top players due to injury or illness. I think when you look at the blown leads like Northwestern where they were up by 10 with just a few minutes to go and eventually lost in O.T. The Southern Cal game and Maryland games that were total blowouts on their home floor. The 16 point lead against MSU they blew and eventually lost by 12 on their home floor. Even the loss to Tennessee at home by allowing a guy to drive 60 feet with 5.6 seconds left untouched to lay the ball in for another blown lead. The game at MSU where they led for most of the game but eventually lost. Why possibly keep a deserving Mid Major out of the tourney and allow this underachieving group a chance to lose in their first game and be embarrassed on National TV. Please do not allow them in!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I think there is. If this team is “back on,” I think they can beat this year’s crop of 2/3 seeds in the Second Round. However, I don’t have faith there’s enough time to “fix ourselves” back to the point where we could knock off a 1 seed. There seems to be a huge drop off after the ‘Bama/Auburn/Duke etc.
Agreed. And the 2/3 seeds have a much greater chance of getting upset and giving us an easier path too.
Illinois basketball should always hear its name called on Selection Sunday - would always trade that for some conference games that don't affect our chances at a BIG10 title. Like people have mentioned too many examples out there like Arkansas in '23 or hell even NC State last year where teams slip through - and personally, whether we win or lose it always makes that first weekend so much better when you have a horse in the race
Zorak
- Naperville
Could not disagree more. The postseason will completely alter how we remember this team, and I'm anxious to get there.
Everything else is the preseason.
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
I’d take this bracket in a heartbeat. It’s two days old but somehow still has us as a 6 seed playing George Mason in the first round and then Kentucky in the second. Best chance I see of us ever being able to survive the first weekend. We’d crash and burn against Houston though in this bracket. Of course this is all predicted on us somehow getting some semblance of our mojo back, which seems a bit out of reach given our remaining schedule and the fact that our coaching has been fairly suspect this season…
www.on3.com
NCAA Tournament: ESPN releases updated Bracketology with big changes after initial rankings by Selection Committee
Lunardi updated his bracket this morning at ESPN based on the latest results as well as the first rankings from the NCAA Selection Committee.
I’d take this bracket in a heartbeat. It’s two days old but somehow still has us as a 6 seed playing George Mason in the first round and then Kentucky in the second. Best chance I see of us ever being able to survive the first weekend. We’d crash and burn against Houston though in this bracket. Of course this is all predicted on us somehow getting some semblance of our mojo back, which seems a bit out of reach given our remaining schedule and the fact that our coaching has been fairly suspect this season…
NCAA Tournament: ESPN releases updated Bracketology with big changes after initial rankings by Selection Committee
Lunardi updated his bracket this morning at ESPN based on the latest results as well as the first rankings from the NCAA Selection Committee.
I was also under the assumption we were in the 8/9 game, maybe 7 at best.
But look at the current 7 seeds on the matrix...our resume is better than all of them IMO.
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