Pregame: Illinois vs Purdue, Friday, March 7th, 7:00pm CT, FOX

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#77      
Neither TKR nor Furst really shoot 3’s so we won’t have to game plan much for that at least.
 
#79      
I was regretting flying across the country for this game last week. Now I'm pumped! Hope the SFC is rocking!
No regrets. You'll be glad you were there. After going to NYC last Saturday and sitting through that disemboweling, our enthusiasm about making the drive to AA for yesterday's game dipped a bit.

Best decision ever to get those tickets. "ILL- / INI!!" chants ringing through Crisler, the home fans beginning to head for the exits with 10 mins left, and a thorough second-half clinic by the Illini. That'll keep me warm in old age.

Even if we hadn't won, it was worth it to cheer on the boys.

And it was literally cloudless skies all the way home today.
 
#81      
Neither TKR nor Furst really shoot 3’s so we won’t have to game plan much for that at least.
Didn’t TKR hit a few last year when they beat us at Mackey? I remember TKR went bonkers on us.
 
#82      
Sorry if Chicken Little...🐔 or Turkey Lurkey 🦃

Do not play Morez until his wrist is FULLY healed - even if next year
He is a difference maker but don't want him to ruin his career.

Wrist injury is nothing to monkey with.

Yes indeed.
 

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#83      
Didn’t TKR hit a few last year when they beat us at Mackey? I remember TKR went bonkers on us.
My brother the Purdue alum said TKR was 8-24 last year but only 3-7 this year. So much lower volume on a lot higher usage.
 
#84      
100% agree. I feel like one win will lock us into a 7 seed, and I feel good about getting that one win without Morez. I'd much rather want him 100% and ready to make a statement.

I said it in a different thread - there's going to be a 2 seed that's going to see Illinois pop up as a 7 seed and NOT be happy about it at all.
*Currently*
Alabama or Florida probably wouldn't bat an eye about us. That leaves St John's and MSU. We already know what happened twice with MSU, but both were easily winnable. St John's would be our best bet (y)
 
#86      
Sorry if Chicken Little...🐔 or Turkey Lurkey 🦃

Do not play Morez until his wrist is FULLY healed - even if next year
He is a difference maker but don't want him to ruin his career.

Wrist injury is nothing to monkey with.
My wrist started bothering me when I was 29. In fact what I noticed first was when I was doing heavy bench it quit flexing back 90 degrees like my right one. It then started hurting when I bumped on something or sometimes playing basketball. I went to doctor for something else and asked him to check out my wrist while there. He poked it just under my thumb and I nearly jumped out of the chair. He snickered at me and said ya you got a broken bone there most likely your scaffoid. Went to specialist who confirmed it and said it was an old break that never healed. Said it wasn't uncommon and that is usually due to falling or punching something. Have no idea how I did it. Could have been high school football or work related years later. I went as long as I could before having surgery. Approximately 2 years from when it first started bothering me. I can have a high tolerance for pain at times. They put a screw in it and made it usable. Strength returned but never got back full range of motion. Only those who know the specifics of Morezs wrist injury know what is or isn't ok for him to do.
 
#88      
Quick analysis of our 2024 Offense heading into the PU game.........

2-pt FG:
Made - 585
Att - 1019
Pct - 57.4% (a staggering figure! Really strong.)

3-pt FG:
Made - 280
Att - 909
Pct - 30.8% (a respectable figure, even though near the bottom of the Big 10)

Shooting 30.8% from three is the equivalent of shooting 46.2% from 2-pt range. That's actually "acceptable" in itself. We just need to limit the 3PA from DGL and Kylan and we'll be fine. The other six 3-point shooters are pretty much comparable to one another, hovering at probably 33+% on average.

Conclusion: This is a really strong offensive ball club, and the #1 scoring team in the Big 10. Our tournament success is going to be all about the DEFENSE.
 
#89      
Quick analysis of our 2024 Offense heading into the PU game.........

2-pt FG:
Made - 585
Att - 1019
Pct - 57.4% (a staggering figure! Really strong.)

3-pt FG:
Made - 280
Att - 909
Pct - 30.8% (a respectable figure, even though near the bottom of the Big 10)

Shooting 30.8% from three is the equivalent of shooting 46.2% from 2-pt range. That's actually "acceptable" in itself. We just need to limit the 3PA from DGL and Kylan and we'll be fine. The other six 3-point shooters are pretty much comparable to one another, hovering at probably 33+% on average.

Conclusion: This is a really strong offensive ball club, and the #1 scoring team in the Big 10. Our tournament success is going to be all about the DEFENSE.
Simple math suggests that we are Much better off shooting two’s - when we shoot twos at a high clip we are tough to beat. Hopefully that continues versus Purdue and we don’t get 3 happy
 
#90      
Simple math suggests that we are Much better off shooting two’s - when we shoot twos at a high clip we are tough to beat. Hopefully that continues versus Purdue and we don’t get 3 happy
tough to do when you're asking to turn down wide open shots with no one within 7 feet, totally unguarded.

an average shooting team would make 50% on some of the looks we get. Teams play to have us shoot and take away all angles. we've got so much aspects (like offensive rebounding) that just getting to 30% is more than enough. yesterday was a step in the right direction.
 
#92      
I actually really like this matchup.

Respect the hell out of Smith. Absolute warrior. But he can be bothered by physical athletic guards, just like Kylan.

TKR is unbelievable but he’s an undersized 5, listed at 6’9 but probably closer to 6’7 and he can struggle to finish over size, just like Tomi.

Loyer can shoot it but can’t really consistently create his own shot.

Make Smith and TKR have something less than absolute superstar performances, hug their 3 pt shooters and then I think we have mismatches for them all over the court.

The Kylan of the last 3 games will be a problem for them. Good Tre White will be a problem for them. Will Riley will be a problem for them. Tomi will be a problem for them. A B-/C+ Kasparas will be a problem for them.

Keep our bite defensively, keep attacking the basket, and shoot approximately 30% from 3 or better and I like our chances.
>15 ORB, <10 TOs , and >30 3PA. Everything else will fall into place. And I expect that.
 
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#93      
Rather surprising and curious spin, but whatever works for you.
 
#94      
It’s probably just me, but it seems like the B1G refs have been allowing way more contact the past couple of weeks. Makes me wonder if it is by design as March Madness approaches.
I said the same thing to somebody recently. Actually, many of the games I have been watching, the refs seem to be allowing more go than they did earlier in the year. But, they still waste too much time on reviews (that's a different thread).
 
#95      
I disagree. This is what they want - an open three. TKR is bothersome, but if Purdue goes off from the arc it is fatal. That's what got UCLA in the second half.
I kept waiting to see if we would double Goldin and we didn't so we could guard everyboidy else. The results proved it worked. Plus having Kylan guard Wolf or Tschetter (sp?) was a great strategy I didn't see coming.
 
#96      
I disagree. This is what they want - an open three. TKR is bothersome, but if Purdue goes off from the arc it is fatal. That's what got UCLA in the second half.
Respectfully disagree. This backing down...and backing down...and, more of it is what gets Tomi into foul trouble. The hard double can cause turnovers. You gotta make the guy pick the ball up. Domask made a living doing the backing down thing; teams didn't double him, so he had all the time in the world.
 
#97      
tough to do when you're asking to turn down wide open shots with no one within 7 feet, totally unguarded.

an average shooting team would make 50% on some of the looks we get. Teams play to have us shoot and take away all angles. we've got so much aspects (like offensive rebounding) that just getting to 30% is more than enough. yesterday was a step in the right direction.
How do you explain Michigan State shooting 555 threes, to the Illini's 909, and also having a record of 24-5 (15-3 B1G)? They also depend on ORBs, and shoot 3s at an even lower percentage than the Illini. They have realized that they score less on each 3 attempted than on each 2 attempted, and focus on the higher scoring option. The Illini score around .2 more points for every 2 they take than for every 3 they take also. Illini .92 points per 3 taken, 1.15 per 2 taken. MSU 1.03 per 3 taken, 1.17 per 2 taken. If you check, nearly all of the top teams have this balance of both 2s and 3s averaging more than 1 point per shot taken.
 
#98      
an average shooting team would make 50% on some of the looks we get.
I agree that we get a lot of really open looks. But is it me, or do we almost never seem to get them "in rhythm"? You know, the shots where (beat) the guy steps to the line and receives the pass (beat) rises and shoots (beat) and ... (you don't even need to look, it's going in). It seems like our opponents get one or two a game, and we just don't get them. Maybe it's just a matter of my expectations. Or is it something about our shooter's preparation, or the passes not being delivered to the right spot?
 
#99      
If you add gummies to your prayers we could be good through the Final Four.
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Now that is really really something to ponder being the team player I am about all things Illini.. I would be open to anything to get to a FF except for anything about NL # 3 or my pondering wandering's of TR or getting medded up with the herbal essence....

UH OH , as with many of my pondering's comes the inevitable wandering's for my fantastic friendship with.............................

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It's an affliction that NL # 3 accepted early on in our relationship because she saw how strong Taylor and I feel about each other and the bond we have........she really really did.......................
 
#100      
Quick analysis of our 2024 Offense heading into the PU game.........

2-pt FG:
Made - 585
Att - 1019
Pct - 57.4% (a staggering figure! Really strong.)

3-pt FG:
Made - 280
Att - 909
Pct - 30.8% (a respectable figure, even though near the bottom of the Big 10)

Shooting 30.8% from three is the equivalent of shooting 46.2% from 2-pt range. That's actually "acceptable" in itself. We just need to limit the 3PA from DGL and Kylan and we'll be fine. The other six 3-point shooters are pretty much comparable to one another, hovering at probably 33+% on average.

Conclusion: This is a really strong offensive ball club, and the #1 scoring team in the Big 10. Our tournament success is going to be all about the DEFENSE.
I'm going to disagree with you a bit here. Just to be a 50th percentile NCAA team, you need to average around 1.069ppp. Including possessions lost due to turnovers and extra possessions gained due to offensive rebounding as well as including free throws, that roughly translates to needing to shoot 51.0% from 2 and 34.0% from 3 just to be around the 180th team in the country offensively. To be an elite offensive team (Top 25) this year though, you need to average at least 1.186ppp which roughly translates to 56.6% from 2 or 37.7% from 3.

Looked at a slightly different way, if all teams did was shoot threes every possessions with no turnovers or rebounds, these would be your expected point totals in about a somewhat typical 70 possession game:

Elite off team shooting 3s: >79.2ppg
Median off team shooting 3s: 71.4ppg
Illinois off team shooting 3s: 64.7ppg

So 30.8% from 3 really isn't respectable at all. Frankly, it's terrible. That said, our 2pt shooting and offensive rebounding have been sensational this season
 
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