Pregame: Illinois vs Purdue, Friday, March 7th, 7:00pm CT, FOX

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#101      
illiniwil
IF HE STAYS OUT OF FOUL TROUBLE. THAT WAS OUR BIGGEST BUG-A-BOO A MONTH AGO.
THAT COULD BE OUR PROBLEM WITH THIS GAME. IVISIC AND/OR BOSWELL.
 
#103      
1m4tr
aaeismacgychel said:
I'm going to disagree with you a bit here. Just to be a 50th percentile NCAA team, you need to average around 1.069ppp. Including possessions lost due to turnovers and extra possessions gained due to offensive rebounding as well as including free throws, that roughly translates to needing to shoot 51.0% from 2 and 34.0% from 3 just to be around the 180th team in the country offensively. To be an elite offensive team (Top 25) this year though, you need to average at least 1.186ppp which roughly translates to 56.6% from 2 or 37.7% from 3.

Looked at a slightly different way, if all teams did was shoot threes every possessions with no turnovers or rebounds, these would be your expected point totals in about a somewhat typical 70 possession game:

Elite off team shooting 3s: >79.2ppg
Median off team shooting 3s: 71.4ppg
Illinois off team shooting 3s: 64.7ppg

So 30.8% from 3 really isn't respectable at all. Frankly, it's terrible. That said, our 2pt shooting and offensive rebounding have been sensational this season
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What’s our record when we shoot at least 30.8% from 3 I wonder?
 
#104      
RML
Oracle21 said:
This is a big game bc I think with a win, you are likely off the 8/9 line in the NCAA tourney. But if you lose, you are probably locked into the 8/9 barring a run in the BTT.
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Win this one, and I want a six seed in the NCAA tournament (barring a disaster in the B1G tournament). :)
 
#105      
thefalcon5
RML said:
Win this one, and I want a six seed in the NCAA tournament (barring a disaster in the B1G tournament). :)
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Definitely not out of the realm of possibility. Purdue will be a 4/5. That should give us at least a few wins over top 5 seeds.
 
#106      
doowink
pruman91 said:
View attachment 40226Now that is really really something to ponder being the team player I am about all things Illini.. I would be open to anything to get to a FF except for anything about NL # 3 or my pondering wandering's of TR or getting medded up with the herbal essence....

UH OH , as with many of my pondering's comes the inevitable wandering's for my fantastic friendship with.............................

View attachment 40227

View attachment 40228

View attachment 40229.....View attachment 40230.....View attachment 40231

It's an affliction that NL # 3 accepted early on in our relationship because she saw how strong Taylor and I feel about each other and the bond we have........she really really did.......................
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Don't know where she got her Fighting Illini t-shirt...but she should take it back....the lettering is all stretched out and distorted....
 
#110      
RAM 77
Illini 993 said:
How do you explain Michigan State shooting 555 threes, to the Illini's 909, and also having a record of 24-5 (15-3 B1G)? They also depend on ORBs, and shoot 3s at an even lower percentage than the Illini. They have realized that they score less on each 3 attempted than on each 2 attempted, and focus on the higher scoring option. The Illini score around .2 more points for every 2 they take than for every 3 they take also. Illini .92 points per 3 taken, 1.15 per 2 taken. MSU 1.03 per 3 taken, 1.17 per 2 taken. If you check, nearly all of the top teams have this balance of both 2s and 3s averaging more than 1 point per shot taken.
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Statistics without context are meaningless. For instance, how many of the two point baskets are a result of a missed three resulting in an easy two point putback?
 
#111      
Chad Fleck
RAM 77 said:
Statistics without context are meaningless. For instance, how many of the two point baskets are a result of a missed three resulting in an easy two point putback?
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You know, there really is something to the 3's being better to rebound off of than 2's. When a team is in a 5 out setting, and they get the feeling that a shot is coming (which players who play often together get to understanding by this point in the season), they can get a good jump on rebounding. That's a big distance for the defenders to actually head off the rebounder, partially because the furthest defenders from the ball will be in help side defense. It gives the offensive rebounders a good run at the rim.

With a closer shot, the help defense is squeezed in more and the lanes become less for getting a run to a rebounding position.

This may be a big reason to continue to shoot the 3's even when they aren't falling. Second and third chances are wildly demoralizing to a defense.
 
#112      
Illwinsagain
Chad Fleck said:
You know, there really is something to the 3's being better to rebound off of than 2's. When a team is in a 5 out setting, and they get the feeling that a shot is coming (which players who play often together get to understanding by this point in the season), they can get a good jump on rebounding. That's a big distance for the defenders to actually head off the rebounder, partially because the furthest defenders from the ball will be in help side defense. It gives the offensive rebounders a good run at the rim.

With a closer shot, the help defense is squeezed in more and the lanes become less for getting a run to a rebounding position.

This may be a big reason to continue to shoot the 3's even when they aren't falling. Second and third chances are wildly demoralizing to a defense.
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Offensive rebounds are glorious! Especially, near the end of the game. The defense plays well, we run the clock down, miss, but get the ball back. It's kind of like using a magnifying glass on ants in the summer time. (Not sure where that came from) :)
 
#113      
I-L-L 1318
Chad Fleck said:
You know, there really is something to the 3's being better to rebound off of than 2's. When a team is in a 5 out setting, and they get the feeling that a shot is coming (which players who play often together get to understanding by this point in the season), they can get a good jump on rebounding. That's a big distance for the defenders to actually head off the rebounder, partially because the furthest defenders from the ball will be in help side defense. It gives the offensive rebounders a good run at the rim.

With a closer shot, the help defense is squeezed in more and the lanes become less for getting a run to a rebounding position.

This may be a big reason to continue to shoot the 3's even when they aren't falling. Second and third chances are wildly demoralizing to a defense.
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Along with longer shots tend to be longer rebounds which gives the offense the advantage as well.
 
#114      
ptgrd23
Quicker to look up losses 3 pg %. We have only lost twice when we shot over 30%. Our season average is 30% so not suprisingly when we shoot poorly we lose. :ROFLMAO:

Alabama neutral 33%
@ NW 27%
Tennesee 17%
USC 21%
@MSU 21%
Maryland 21%
@Nebraska 24%
@Rutgers 21%
MSU 21%
@Wisconsin 33%
Duke 8%

What is surprising is KB who shot +38%,39% in AZ past 2 years is shooting 22% for Illini
KJ in recent losses 3pg% - Duke 0-4, @ Wis 0-1 @MSU 2-9 @ Rug 0-2 @ Neb 3-10 MD -04, @MSU 0-2
 
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#115      
Illini 993
RAM 77 said:
Statistics without context are meaningless. For instance, how many of the two point baskets are a result of a missed three resulting in an easy two point putback?
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You do realize that nothing you said negated what I said? I would think that rebounds on 3s being put back for a 2 would apply equally to both the Illini and MSU. So, my point is still valid.
 
#116      
fuggles
Illini 993 said:
You do realize that nothing you said negated what I said? I would think that rebounds on 3s being put back for a 2 would apply equally to both the Illini and MSU. So, my point is still valid.
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We score more points than MSU (83.6 vs 78). The difference is on the defensive side (pa 73 vs 66). Has nothing to do with 3pt shots or orb. And we played a slightly tougher schedule than them.
 
#117      
RollChief
Not sure if it's been mentioned and double checked the numbers on this, but heard the following stat on Field of 68-

But when Illinois shoots better than 27% from 3, the team is 16-2. When they shoot less than 27%, they're 3-9.

The equation is simple, shoot better = win games.
 
#118      
RAM 77
Illini 993 said:
You do realize that nothing you said negated what I said? I would think that rebounds on 3s being put back for a 2 would apply equally to both the Illini and MSU. So, my point is still valid.
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Wasn't debating you! My comment was as much question as statement. If a possession starts with a three point shot that is put back for a two does that count as two points for both a three point shot possession and a two point shot possession or only a two point shot? That's what I mean by context. I believe we are scoring at a higher rate than MSU so is chucking threes a bad approach? I say yes if you're not going to crash the offensive boards. When you rebound like we did against Michigan it works!
 
#119      
IlliniFanTX
RollChief said:
Not sure if it's been mentioned and double checked the numbers on this, but heard the following stat on Field of 68-

But when Illinois shoots better than 27% from 3, the team is 16-2. When they shoot less than 27%, they're 3-9.

The equation is simple, shoot better = win games.
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To quote Uncle Drew "This game always has been and always will be... about BUCKETS"
 
#120      
blackdog
RAM 77 said:
Wasn't debating you! My comment was as much question as statement. If a possession starts with a three point shot that is put back for a two does that count as two points for both a three point shot possession and a two point shot possession or only a two point shot? That's what I mean by context. I believe we are scoring at a higher rate than MSU so is chucking threes a bad approach? I say yes if you're not going to crash the offensive boards. When you rebound like we did against Michigan it works!
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I believe it gets counted as two separate possession since the rebound starts a new possession.
 
#121      
lstewart53x3
Illini 993 said:
How do you explain Michigan State shooting 555 threes, to the Illini's 909, and also having a record of 24-5 (15-3 B1G)? They also depend on ORBs, and shoot 3s at an even lower percentage than the Illini. They have realized that they score less on each 3 attempted than on each 2 attempted, and focus on the higher scoring option. The Illini score around .2 more points for every 2 they take than for every 3 they take also. Illini .92 points per 3 taken, 1.15 per 2 taken. MSU 1.03 per 3 taken, 1.17 per 2 taken. If you check, nearly all of the top teams have this balance of both 2s and 3s averaging more than 1 point per shot taken.
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Even with us taking and missing more 3’s, we still have a better offensive efficiency than Michigan St. We’re ranked 14 on offense on KenPom, they’re ranked 32.

Defense is the difference. They have the #5 defense and ours is #33.
 
#122      
PNWIllini
Going to embarrass myself fellow Illini. TL;DR a lifelong fan expresses some feelings.

We are witnessing the kind of season that we would have only dreamed of during Groce or the last years of Weber.

Is this season chaos and pain sometimes? Absolutely.

Perplexing inability to close out games? Check.

Regret over lost opportunity and worry of future stumbles? You know it.

And yet. Watching the Michigan game and feeling pride rising with every offensive rebound in the second half, every battle and rim crash by everyone. Every scrappy possession and every forced turnover.

Feeling the way I know this team can make me feel.

Enjoying every damn minute of the highs; loving that we’re nationally relevant, proud of what BU and JW have built, and really enthused to see what the future brings.

It’s March fellow Illini! We matter. We are a force to be reckoned with. Our ceiling is high.

Savor every minute.

As Underwood said, they could have folded up after Duke. Instead they walked into Ann Arbor and dropped 93 on the Wolverines. Won by 20 when nobody expected it. Again.

I love this team.
 
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#123      
Illini in Italy
PtGd said:
You guys are on a good mood this morning.

Illini must be on a two game winning streak or something.

Whatever it is, keep it up.

And, Illini keep it up too.
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Season 3 Nbc GIF by The Office
 
#125      
I-L-L 1318
Any word on Morez? Believe it was mentioned Purdue might be the staff’s hope to get him back, but it seems so fast. But then again, Fletch is a witch doctor.
 
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