Week of 3/3 Bracketology
- Status
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
We are now top 15 in NET.Here's another way to look at it.
Only 4 teams ranked in the top 15 of NET have ever gotten a seed worse than 6.
3 were mid majors:
2019 Woffard
2021 Loyola
2023 FAU
The other was UCLA in 2021 with a SOS of 65 and a Q1 record of 5-7. Really not comparable to Illinois.
If we win our next 3, maybe even our next 2, we'll finish top 15 in NET. The committe isn't going to punish a team with our SOS, Q1 wins, or injury situation.
Wisconsin was projected as a 2/3 seed earlier this week. With the loss against PSU and losing 3 out of the last 5 it will be interesting where they will move to
Current NET 20
6-7 quad 1
9-1 quad 2
What would you seed them now?
We have more quad 1 wins but they have more quad 1/2 wins 15 to our 14. Neither team has a quad 3/4 loss
Current NET 20
6-7 quad 1
9-1 quad 2
What would you seed them now?
We have more quad 1 wins but they have more quad 1/2 wins 15 to our 14. Neither team has a quad 3/4 loss
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
After watching games yesterday, my sole bracket hope is to avoid Duke as long as possible. If we play as we are capable of playing, we stand a great chance against anyone else.
I'd say they should be a 4/5 if the season ended today. NET points to a 5, result based and predictive metrics point to a 3, mediocre SOS and Q1 record is more 6 or 7ish.
pruman91
- interviewing new NL's daily....I really really am
The problem is that Maryland is just one of those bad matchups for us. They just are.
Do we struggle with athletic guards?
Do we struggle with bouncy bigs that really crash the boards?
The answer to both of this is yes. Reese has cleaned our clocks for four(??) years now and Queen is a moose. We have no depth with our bigs and we just aren't athletic as a roster.
Are we playing great and can we take care of anybody when the three is going down at a reasonable rate? Absolutely!!!!
At the same time, which team do we matchup with the worst? It's Maryland.....by a lot.
Both of the situations can be true. Can we win, yes. Are they a team that gives us a ton of trouble? Yes.
No need to get irritated.
My question with them is have they "earned" their first two games in Milwaukee? That will be a HUGE decision by the committee. That's two home games. Not sure their finish should award them that advantage. Forget their number.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Unless Wisconsin wins the BTT............................
No way that the 4th/5th best team in the Big 10 gets to play the first two rounds of the NCAA tourney that close to home. That would be an advantage that multiple teams above them in the B10 standings will NOT have.
Easy call.
Depends if Klesmit is going to be back or not. They look significantly worse without him and this will be an interesting case as to how much the committee will actually factor in missing pieces in losses.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
That’s not at all how it works lol there is no conference affiliation beyond the autobid…it’s just resumes agnostic of conference with a few sprinkles of when you can face another conference team.
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Looking at brackets, I hope we get exactly a 6 seed.
most likely way to get to S16 and E8, imo.
most likely way to get to S16 and E8, imo.
I think he is saying winning the BTT would make their seed higher and more deserving of the Milwaukee placement.
That's a good question, let's lay out how the locations could go. I will just go straight off of bracket matrix.
There is a pretty clearly top 6 that probably won't change. Auburn, Houston, Duke, Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee. MSU should be a lock for a 2 if they win today. After that, things get pretty fluid. I'm also going to guess that Wisconsin is the last 3 seed, even though they are showing as the last 2 on the matrix. Here are the first/second round locations in order from East to West. Seeds are in parentheses.
Providence, RI - St Johns (3), Purdue (4)
Raleigh, NC - Duke (1), Florida (1)
Cleveland, OH - Tenn (2), MSU (2)
Lexington, KY - Auburn (1), Alabama (2)
Milwaukee, WI - Kentucky (3), Wisconsin (3)
Wichita, KS - Houston (1), Texas Tech (2)
Denver, CO - Texas A&M (3), Iowa St (4)
Seattle, WA - Arizona (4), Maryland (4)
So for your Wisconsin question, it looks like as long as they can stay ahead of Iowa St and Purdue then they will get Milwaukee.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Ahhh I gotcha - that would make sense
The most likely way tonthe S16 is a 4 or 5 in Milwaukee. A 6 seed is good for the deeper run, but also means we are more susceptible to losing the first game against an 11. And would likely be underdogs against a 3.
The more I look at it the more I believe we should be firmly on the 6 line at least. Let’s compare to other teams in that range in Louisville, Ole Miss, BYU, UCLA, Memphis
We have:
Highest NET rating
Highest Kenpom rating
Highest BPI rating
Most Quad1/2 wins
2nd Quad 1 wins
2nd in T-Rank
2nd in SOS
2nd Quad 1 wins
2nd OOC SOS
& 3 of those teams have at least one Quad 3 loss
3rd OOC WAB
4th KPI
4th SOR
We have:
Highest NET rating
Highest Kenpom rating
Highest BPI rating
Most Quad1/2 wins
2nd Quad 1 wins
2nd in T-Rank
2nd in SOS
2nd Quad 1 wins
2nd OOC SOS
& 3 of those teams have at least one Quad 3 loss
3rd OOC WAB
4th KPI
4th SOR
To continue…
Missouri is on the 5 line but there’s hardly any separation between us and them… We have better/same predictive metrics, more quad 1 and quad 2 wins, better SOS, better road record and head to head win….
Better predictive metrics than Oregon, and same quad 1/2 wins & head to head….
More quad 1 wins than Marquette, better SOS….
Similar/better predictive metrics than Clemson, significantly better SOS & twice as many quad 1 wins….
Our resume looks just as close to Arizona who’s a presumptive 4 seed as it does to these others…
Will be interesting but there is hardly any differences in these 4-7 seed lines.
Missouri is on the 5 line but there’s hardly any separation between us and them… We have better/same predictive metrics, more quad 1 and quad 2 wins, better SOS, better road record and head to head win….
Better predictive metrics than Oregon, and same quad 1/2 wins & head to head….
More quad 1 wins than Marquette, better SOS….
Similar/better predictive metrics than Clemson, significantly better SOS & twice as many quad 1 wins….
Our resume looks just as close to Arizona who’s a presumptive 4 seed as it does to these others…
Will be interesting but there is hardly any differences in these 4-7 seed lines.
I think if we get to the BTT title game, it will be really hard to keep us off the 4 line.
Precisely.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Nothing to do with "conference" affiliation really. Venues are absolutely a consideration.
The Selection Committee would face incredible scrutiny if they awarded so called home games to any of the mid or bottom-seeded teams in any conference. Further examples ------ Big Ten coaches would blow up if lowly Ohio State were allowed to play its first two games in Columbus, or if lowly Indiana played its first two games in Indianapolis.
Only irritated when others like you keeps spewing the same nonsense. Now I said what I’ve said multiple times and nothing you say is going to change that. Maryland is not any thing special and we can beat them.
- Status