Week of 3/3 Bracketology

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#376      
aaeismacgychel
Yep, we either will face OSU in our 1st BTT game or the winner of the 11/14 game. As well, we are a 7 seed if UCLA beats USC and a 6 seed if USC beats UCLA

Depending on if Michigan beats MSU, our prospective games are:

If Michigan loses to MSU:
As 7 seed: 2nd Rnd vs. 10 OSU, QF vs. 2 Maryland
As 6 seed: 2nd Rnd vs. 11/14 winner, QF vs 3 Michigan

If Michigan beats MSU:
As 7 seed: 2nd Rnd vs. 10 OSU, QF vs. 2 Michigan
As 6 seed: 2nd Rnd vs. 11/14 winner, QF vs 3 Maryland

I personally want no part of Maryland, but tomorrow's game will decide it
 
#378      
Icy veins
IMO we want USC to win tonight and MSU to win tomorrow. That would both give us a 6 seed with a favorable 2nd round BTT matchup (Michigan instead of Maryland) and would be another loss for Michigan that gives us a chance to jump them in NCAA tournament seeding
 
#379      
BBlock24
Icy veins said:
IMO we want USC to win tonight and MSU to win tomorrow. That would both give us a 6 seed with a favorable 2nd round BTT matchup (Michigan instead of Maryland) and would be another loss for Michigan that gives us a chance to jump them in NCAA tournament seeding
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Game is at UCLA, so I doubt USC’s chances but it’s a rivalry game and crazier things have happened. 🤷‍♂️
 
#380      
From the cheap seats
If we remain in the 7 spot, we’d play the winner of the 10-15 first-round game (right now looks like Ohio State vs. Minnesota). If we get to the 6 seed, we’d play the winner of the 11-14 game (right now Rutgers vs. NW, but could change).
The best outcomes for the Illini look like wins by USC and Michigan State or, if UCLA wins, a win by Michigan, which would make them the 2 seed and Maryland the 3 seed.
If I correctly read the bracket generator. 🤷‍♂️
 
#383      
Rez
From the cheap seats said:
If we remain in the 7 spot, we’d play the winner of the 10-15 first-round game (right now looks like Ohio State vs. Minnesota). If we get to the 6 seed, we’d play the winner of the 11-14 game (right now Rutgers vs. NW, but could change).
The best outcomes for the Illini look like wins by USC and Michigan State or, if UCLA wins, a win by Michigan, which would make them the 2 seed and Maryland the 3 seed.
If I correctly read the bracket generator. 🤷‍♂️
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I think I would rather be the 7 and play Ohio State for another quad 1 oppurtunity to solidify the 6 seed. Dont think beating Rutgers/NW helps. After that, Maryland/Michigan idc bring either on for a rematch...IDK may be off on the metrics.
 
#384      
Illini2010-11
LvilleILL1 said:
Hasn't updated yet, we should be up at least 2 or 3 soon. 3/4 of the major outlets had us as a 6 today
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Agreed. The Illini are easily in 6 seed territory right now. I think the floor seed is about a 7 assuming a loss in the first BTT game (good chance that it will be a Quad 1 game).

If Illini go 1-1 in BTT, the Illini likely finish with a 8-10 or 9-10 quad 1 record, and at 22-12, I have to assume a 6 seed is the floor.

Lose in BTT semis, then the Illini will have a 9-10 or 10-10 quad 1 record and will be 23-12. That is looking pretty good for a 5 seed.

Make Sunday, and 4 seed is easily in play, with at least 10 quad 1 wins and at least a .500 win percentage in quad 1 games.
 
#385      
fatboyslim
aaeismacgychel said:
Yep, we either will face OSU in our 1st BTT game or the winner of the 11/14 game. As well, we are a 7 seed if UCLA beats USC and a 6 seed if USC beats UCLA

Depending on if Michigan beats MSU, our prospective games are:

If Michigan loses to MSU:
As 7 seed: 2nd Rnd vs. 10 OSU, QF vs. 2 Maryland
As 6 seed: 2nd Rnd vs. 11/14 winner, QF vs 3 Michigan

If Michigan beats MSU:
As 7 seed: 2nd Rnd vs. 10 OSU, QF vs. 2 Michigan
As 6 seed: 2nd Rnd vs. 11/14 winner, QF vs 3 Maryland

I personally want no part of Maryland, but tomorrow's game will decide it
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This ‘I don’t want to play/want no part of Maryland’ nonsense is just that, nonsense. Seen this a few times and it’s irritating. I don’t care who we play we are a good team and can beat anyone in this league. Maryland is not some juggernaut or elite team. They can be beat and we can beat them. I know the actual team feels that way.
 
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#386      
ejam21
Some more random tidibts......was looking at last years resume vs this year in terms of quality wins going into the BTT

2024: Five quad 1 wins, 21 (A), ,24 (H), 39 (N), 49(A), 61(A)
2025: Eight quad 1 wins: 14(H), 15(H),17(N), 26(H), 28(A), 29(A),40(N), 56 (A),

Kind of wild that this time last year we only had 5...we then beat 21, 49 and 33 in btt to get to 8 wins. We could very well end up with 9/10 after btt......worst case assuming rankings hold we match last years q1.....with 3 wins against higher ranked teams than last years best win.

Crazy considering the feeling and narrative around the team this year.

Brad bashed for not "Getting old, staying old" despite losing so many players to graduation/transfer, yet the big wins are pretty damn good AND we finished 1-2 games behind some very good older teams (purdue, wisky, md) who not only were older and more experienced, but also didnt deal with anywhere near our level of continuity issues in season (health, injuries) AND had softer B10 schedules (Wisky and purde had the two easiest in conference, MD was 14th, we were above avg difficulty at SOS of 7 in conf)

And last years team finished 2 games better than this one while having a the 10th hardest sched out of 14 teams...not really a huge dropoff there this year even when considering the TSJ issue (i'd say having as much illness across the whole team for as long as we did kind of washes with missing TSJ).
 
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#387      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
if we don't get the seeding people wish for, there's reason. Just look at USC right now. We have losses to USC and Rutgers. Two atrocious basketball teams (when we're talking P5 level). Especially USC since that was at home. Sure we didn't have our best player, but the comittee won't look at that.

If we lose the first game, likeliest we're an 8. If we win one, lose the next, probably I'll say 7. Tough to see more than that.
 
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#388      
Rez
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
if we don't get the seeding people wish for, there's reason. Just look at USC right now. We have losses to USC (at home) and Rutgers. Two atrocious basketball teams (when we're talking P5 level).

If we lose the first game, likeliest we're an 8. If we win one, lose the next, probably I'll say 7. Tough to see more than that.
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Lmao. This has been talked about ad nauseum all day. We are squarely off the 8 seed line no matter what.
 
#389      
BBlock24
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
if we don't get the seeding people wish for, there's reason. Just look at USC right now. We have losses to USC and Rutgers. Two atrocious basketball teams (when we're talking P5 level). Especially USC since that was at home. Sure we didn't have our best player, but the comittee won't look at that.

If we lose the first game, likeliest we're an 8. If we win one, lose the next, probably I'll say 7. Tough to see more than that.
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We are squarely off the 8-line based on our metrics. A 7 seed is our floor no matter what happens in the BTT.
 
#390      
ejam21
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
if we don't get the seeding people wish for, there's reason. Just look at USC right now. We have losses to USC and Rutgers. Two atrocious basketball teams (when we're talking P5 level). Especially USC since that was at home. Sure we didn't have our best player, but the comittee won't look at that.

If we lose the first game, likeliest we're an 8. If we win one, lose the next, probably I'll say 7. Tough to see more than that.
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Most teams in our seeding range have lost to bad basketball teams, and some even lost to bad teams that arent even power 5 (see my post above, there are 7 seeded teams in BM who have lost to teams not even in the top 150, and as bad as usc/rutgers are, they are 60-80 range). I dont see why a Q1 loss in btt would drop us 1-2 seeds (from brackets i see updated today i see 6 in espn, 7 in cbs) just bc usc was garbage today.

I bet a lot of bad bball teams with wins over top 8 seeds were bad this wkend
 
#392      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
fatboyslim said:
This ‘I don’t want to play/want no part of Maryland’ nonsense is just that, nonsense. Seen this a few times and it’s irritating. I don’t care who we play we are a good team and can beat anyone in this league. Maryland is not some juggernaut or elite team. They can be beat and we can beat them. I know the actual team feels that way.
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this isn't maryland or duke. this is maryland or michigan. between those two, gimme michigan 10 times out of 10.
 
#393      
Illini2010-11
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
if we don't get the seeding people wish for, there's reason. Just look at USC right now. We have losses to USC and Rutgers. Two atrocious basketball teams (when we're talking P5 level). Especially USC since that was at home. Sure we didn't have our best player, but the comittee won't look at that.

If we lose the first game, likeliest we're an 8. If we win one, lose the next, probably I'll say 7. Tough to see more than that.
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How I Met Your Mother Reaction GIF by Laff

Some of you seriously have no clue how the committee seeds the teams. This team was safely in the 8/9 game after Iowa and then proceeded to pick up two high quality Quad 1 wins (one by double digits on the road). Why relitigate those two losses? They are not even bad losses in the Quad system. If USC drops to Quad 3, the committee will absolutely discount the loss.

A 20 win team with 8 Quad 1 wins has 0% chance of being lower than a 7 seed. A 1 seed would be up in arms if a team like Illinois was placed as an 8 seed.
 
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#395      
the juiceman cometh
Illini2010-11 said:
How I Met Your Mother Reaction GIF by Laff

Some of you seriously have no clue how the committee seeds the teams. This team was safely in the 8/9 game after Iowa and then proceeded to pick up two high quality Quad 1 wins (one by double digits on the road). Why relitigate those two losses? They are not even bad losses in the Quad system. If USC drops to Quad 3, the committee will absolutely discount the loss.

A 20 win team with 8 Quad 1 wins has 0% chance of being lower than a 7 seed. A 1 seed would be up in arms if a team like Illinois was placed as an 8 seed.
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Even Jerry Palm finally moved us to a 7-seed.

That's how you know we've avoided the 8-seed line once and for all.
 
#396      
fatboyslim
Please Maryland is not close to unbeatable. Give me a break. They aren’t anything special. Sometimes I question what kind of fans like you are.
 
#398      
SkyysNotFalling
fatboyslim said:
This ‘I don’t want to play/want no part of Maryland’ nonsense is just that, nonsense. Seen this a few times and it’s irritating. I don’t care who we play we are a good team and can beat anyone in this league. Maryland is not some juggernaut or elite team. They can be beat and we can beat them. I know the actual team feels that way.
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Interesting that we very well could play Maryland without Tomi but with Morez & with Tomi but without Morez…
 
#399      
Rusty
I like looking at projections but it doesn't matter our seed. Why worry about it? We can beat any 2.3.4 in the 2nd round ok 3rd rd. We could lose to any good team if we have 15 TO's and 20% from 3. With the Big 5 conference tourney's coming, these seeds flip all the time. We'll know when we know.
 
#400      
IlliniFan42
Kind of reductive reasoning. We can beat any team (we reasonably can't, we could play Duke a million times, we're not winning), but we're more likely to beat a worse team than a better team, so it'd be logical to prefer facing a 4 seed than a 2 seed. This team is not #1 material, nowhere close, so let's not pretend this is the sort of team where you're gonna end up having to face all the great teams at some point regardless. Our goal should be to dodge as much competition as possible and be happy if we make the second weekend.
 
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