3/14-3/16 Bracketology

Status
Not open for further replies.
#26      
Illini2010-11
ChiefGritty said:
I kinda think we're going to be a 5.

Our resume is full of the stuff the modern committee tends to overrate (Quad 1 win volume, losses due to absences) and the problems are things the modern committee is increasingly aggressive about ignoring (mediocre conference position, a lot of losses, a lot of the best wins were a long time ago).

There's a gigantic glut of Big Ten teams on the 4/5/6 line who can't get matched up as 4/5's (right?), but I think we might get more priority than people expect, especially if we win today. And if we keep winning we might really have helium.

Might be totally wrong, but I just want to register that prediction.
Click to expand...
If Illinois wins today, then I think the Illini will 100% be in line for a 5 seed (or better if they make it to Sunday).

Lose today:
Illini are 21-12: Q1 Record -- 8-10; Q2 Record -- 7-2; Q4 Record -- 6-0 -> Pretty solid resume to peers, and I think a 6 seed appears to be floor (5 seed questionable)

Win today and loss tomorrow:
Illini are 22-12: Q1 Record -- 9-10; Q2 Record -- 7-2; Q4 Record -- 6-0 -> Very solid resume to peers, and I think a 5 seed looks great

Win two more games:
Illini are 23-12: Q1 Record -- 10-10; Q2 Record -- 7-2; Q4 Record -- 6-0 -> 5 seed is floor (approaching 4 seed range)

Win 3 more games (don't think it will impact seeding much):
Illini are 24-11: Q1 Record -- 11-9; Q2 Record -- 7-2; Q4 Record -- 6-0 -> This looks like a 4 seed at worst (but the past has indicated that Sunday games are not really factored into decision).

The Illini are a very tricky team to seed, as the metrics look super nice, and in the losses, there were plenty of illness and injuries. This Illini squad can be a nightmare for higher seeds this year.
 
#27      
BBlock24
I’ve seen a couple mocks having Illinois facing West Virginia in the 6/11 matchup. That’d be something lol.
 
#28      
ChiefGritty
Illini2010-11 said:
The Illini are a very tricky team to seed, as the metrics look super nice, and in the losses, there were plenty of illness and injuries.
Click to expand...
It's really going to come down to how much the actual human beings in the room discuss the mitigating factors of our profile and how that conversation goes.

If we'd had a star player out injured during our midseason slump we'd be golden, we know how the committee deals with that. Treated as a fully healthy team, the resume is a bit saggy as of today and doesn't really pop against the rest of the 5/6/7 group.

The reality is a shade of gray in between. We're an interesting case.
 
#32      
BBlock24
With the likely loss tonight, maybe that’ll keep us on the 6 line. I’m fine with it.
 
#38      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Have you paid attention to teams on the 6/7/8 line? They've all won. And almost all the brackets have us as a 7.

Seriously someone explain to me how we can be a six seed. By no means am i trying to be a douche.
 
#44      
Goillinikobd
After this embarrassment?
Ok, we are, at best, the 7th best team in our league. What leap of faith gets us to the round of 8 in the National tourney?
 
#45      
DeonThomas
Some really bad losses this year, with the two absolute worst in the final 6 games.

Winning two consecutive games against NCAA Tournament quality teams will be a stretch. And unfortunately, I just can't see us playing 3 or 4 high quality games in a row.
 
#48      
Heisenbobble
DeeIL89 said:
Just get to the Sweet 16 and I will be satisfied and will consider this season a success.
Click to expand...
Tyler Perry Good Luck GIF by Nickelodeon
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back