Normally, I am pro Big Ten and want to see teams do well. However this year, I feel like there is a good chance all the teams are out by the sweet 16….I’m clearly bias but I think Illinois has the best path to prove me wrong!
NCAA Tournament Bracket
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Really don't see what replacing the 18 or so teams that have a lot of charm with the upset potential and occasional Cinderella with more of West Virginia, Indiana, Ohio State, Boise State, Wake Forest, SMU types that just get rewarded for a mediocre season [at least UC Irvine would be something different], even if they're amongst the "68 best" does. There's so much room for teams in power conferences to just be OK and still comfortably clear into the field.
My family (sports fans group) have discussed this quite a bit in recent years. The preseason polls and polls in general create a self fulfilling prophecy for conference teams (up or down). But, there has to be some sort of subjective starting point with every approach. Maybe the first polls (that are used in metrics by the selection process/committee) shoudn't be released until say January 1. Also, the voting members need to be better vetted. Collegiate sports structure will be very different in a few years. IMO, it will ended up with an expanded tournament with efficient matchup/playon approach based on geography (regionally interesting that draw fans), intra-conference matchups, some settled upon metric, and allow a committee to set the top (1-4?) seeds per region, after that everything is based on the established metric.
Joe Lunardi reacts to the 2025 men's NCAA tournament bracket
After genuinely consistent selections in the NET era, the committee's decision to include both Texas and North Carolina has stumped our resident bracketologist.www.espn.com
A good point from Lunardi. You can make the case for Texas, you can make the case for UNC, but those two cases completely contradict one another.
You just can't get around how much emphasis the committee itself has put on Quad 1 wins since that metric was introduced.
They seem to have gotten completely wrapped around the axle on the idea of "Non-conference SOS"
The Big Two era with such a hyper-concentration of resources in just two leagues that play 18-20 games against each other does make this all harder, no doubt. But they've really blown it here.
Illini4Chief
- TENNESSEE
Participation trophy perhaps....
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Someone brought up what we should reasonably expect from this team in March Madness to be satisfied with how the season ended. I think it does go a bit deeper than "#6 seed, so losing in the Second Round is expected." This team looked like a #3 seed or better at multiple points of this season, and our very coaching staff HEAVILY leaned into the fact that injuries and illnesses have derailed us. Well, we are healthy and it's time to perform! So, for me, I am balancing what I think our potential is and the reality that we have the path of a #6 seed in front of us due to our regular season resume. In summary, this is my subjective opinion, trying to take everything into account:
A+ ... Elite Eight or Beyond. The fact is, we have PROVEN we have the talent to play with #2/3 seeds and give ourselves a chance to win. Would it take a string of us playing at our best, which is something we have rarely seen? Sure ... but that's why it's an A+ grade. It is within our abilities to beat Texas/Xavier, beat Kentucky and win a rematch against Tennessee; doing so lands you in the Elite Eight, and I would consider that an A+.
A ... Sweet Sixteen. #6 seed or not, this team has the talent and tools to take down #3 Kentucky, especially in Milwaukee. Odds are probably against this overall, but an A is supposed to be an exceptional grade. I'm going to skip A- ... lol.
B+ ... Second Round Close Loss. If we at least get past Texas/Xavier and give #3 Kentucky a fight, I will consider the season as at least somewhat successful overall, given our youth and some of the hiccups that were outside of our control. Kentucky is a very talented team, and if our shots aren't falling, they will beat us.
B - ... Second Round Blowout Loss. I'm also skipping a regular B, as it would probably be a standard 8-10 point loss to UK. However, if we get past our First Round opponent just to come out like we did against Maryland ... that almost erases the first win. The fact is that we have the talent to AT LEAST give the Wildcats a fight, and if we don't, it's a sign of mental weakness, IMO.
C ... First Round "Fluke" Loss. If we have Texas/Xavier absolutely go off offensively, but we stay composed and fight to the end and lose on some buzzer beater ... I'll be disappointed and it will be a "failure" of a postseason, but it would be easier to take than if we just come out flat for our first NCAA Tournament game.
F ... First Round Blowout Loss. I'm also skipping D, because if this team loses in the First Round and we never had a chance (ala our flat performance vs. Arkansas in 2023), it is nothing but a huge failure. We should win our first game, period ... but upsets happen in March all the time, and a 11/6 upset is hardly rare. However, if we come out and look like we never deserved that #6 seed in the first place, all good from this season has been undone, unfortunately.
I'm cautiously optimistic for at least a B ... I am reasonably hoping for at least that B+, and I think an obtainable-if-optimistic goal is that A scenario. Anything beyond the Sweet Sixteen is absolute gravy and immediately erases all of this year's headaches!!
A+ ... Elite Eight or Beyond. The fact is, we have PROVEN we have the talent to play with #2/3 seeds and give ourselves a chance to win. Would it take a string of us playing at our best, which is something we have rarely seen? Sure ... but that's why it's an A+ grade. It is within our abilities to beat Texas/Xavier, beat Kentucky and win a rematch against Tennessee; doing so lands you in the Elite Eight, and I would consider that an A+.
A ... Sweet Sixteen. #6 seed or not, this team has the talent and tools to take down #3 Kentucky, especially in Milwaukee. Odds are probably against this overall, but an A is supposed to be an exceptional grade. I'm going to skip A- ... lol.
B+ ... Second Round Close Loss. If we at least get past Texas/Xavier and give #3 Kentucky a fight, I will consider the season as at least somewhat successful overall, given our youth and some of the hiccups that were outside of our control. Kentucky is a very talented team, and if our shots aren't falling, they will beat us.
B - ... Second Round Blowout Loss. I'm also skipping a regular B, as it would probably be a standard 8-10 point loss to UK. However, if we get past our First Round opponent just to come out like we did against Maryland ... that almost erases the first win. The fact is that we have the talent to AT LEAST give the Wildcats a fight, and if we don't, it's a sign of mental weakness, IMO.
C ... First Round "Fluke" Loss. If we have Texas/Xavier absolutely go off offensively, but we stay composed and fight to the end and lose on some buzzer beater ... I'll be disappointed and it will be a "failure" of a postseason, but it would be easier to take than if we just come out flat for our first NCAA Tournament game.
F ... First Round Blowout Loss. I'm also skipping D, because if this team loses in the First Round and we never had a chance (ala our flat performance vs. Arkansas in 2023), it is nothing but a huge failure. We should win our first game, period ... but upsets happen in March all the time, and a 11/6 upset is hardly rare. However, if we come out and look like we never deserved that #6 seed in the first place, all good from this season has been undone, unfortunately.
I'm cautiously optimistic for at least a B ... I am reasonably hoping for at least that B+, and I think an obtainable-if-optimistic goal is that A scenario. Anything beyond the Sweet Sixteen is absolute gravy and immediately erases all of this year's headaches!!
I believe the NCAA tournament evaluation committee metrics are all "blind" (as in no preseason priors would effect the data)
Or maybe a nonparticaption trophy for P5 teams that will having every advantage can win enough games to get into the tournament.
First round "fluke" loss, is a "D" for me. Really need to win first one or wolves will be howling...
SuperMetroid
- Evanston
And instantly lose what makes the it the best thing in sports? No thanks. There’s already way too many SEC teams in it this year as it is
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Not that we Illini fans need a reminder of this unfortunately, but it’s worth remembering that a #1 seed has gone down before the Sweet Sixteen in 7 of the last Tournaments! Underrated upset choice.
2024
N/A
2023
#16 FDU over #1 Purdue
#8 Arkansas over #1 Kandas
2022
#8 North Carolina over #1 Baylor
2021
#8 Loyola Chicago over #1 Illinois
2019
N/A
2018
#16 UMBC over #1 Virginia
#9 Florida State over #1 Xavier
2017
#8 Wisconsin over #1 Villanova
2016
N/A
2015
#8 NC State over #1 Villanova
2014
#8 Kentucky over #1 Wichita State
2024
N/A
2023
#16 FDU over #1 Purdue
#8 Arkansas over #1 Kandas
2022
#8 North Carolina over #1 Baylor
2021
#8 Loyola Chicago over #1 Illinois
2019
N/A
2018
#16 UMBC over #1 Virginia
#9 Florida State over #1 Xavier
2017
#8 Wisconsin over #1 Villanova
2016
N/A
2015
#8 NC State over #1 Villanova
2014
#8 Kentucky over #1 Wichita State
AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
If I had to pick one to not make the Sweet Sixteen I would pick Auburn. Lost 3 of last 4, and Broome hasn't been playing all that great. But of course, the least expected result always seems to happen in this tournament, so it will be Duke losing to Baylor in the 2nd Round lol.Not that we Illini fans need a reminder of this unfortunately, but it’s worth remembering that a #1 seed has gone down before the Sweet Sixteen in 7 of the last Tournaments! Underrated upset choice.
2024
N/A
2023
#16 FDU over #1 Purdue
#8 Arkansas over #1 Kandas
2022
#8 North Carolina over #1 Baylor
2021
#8 Loyola Chicago over #1 Illinois
2019
N/A
2018
#16 UMBC over #1 Virginia
#9 Florida State over #1 Xavier
2017
#8 Wisconsin over #1 Villanova
2016
N/A
2015
#8 NC State over #1 Villanova
2014
#8 Kentucky over #1 Wichita State
Sounds like no point to watch the game Friday. All the experts have picked Texas or Xavier. I don't think I've seen a single "expert" that has picked us to win!
Mark Few has made 9 consecutive sweet sixteens. Gimme the Zags as the best bet.
Just curious.... anyone know the last time two first four teams made the round of 32?
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I understand why people choose to grade the season based on what happens in the NCAAT, I just refuse to do it—it’s way too flukey.
Take NC State last year. They made the final four. By your definition, that’s an A+ season. But was it?
Not really. They went 17-14 in the regular season, 9-11 in a bad conference. They lost their last 4 games of the regular season and ended the season at 45 in KenPom even after winning 9 straight games, so they likely finished the regular season in the 60s in KenPom.
For context, the Matt Mayer season that everyone on this board complains about was a KenPom 30s team.
NC State had the type of season where I would have stopped tuning into the games midway through.
Don’t get me wrong, their tournament run had to be a ton of fun for their fans, and I can’t wait for our next one, but I did it mean anything? Not really. They went 12-19 this year and fired their coach.
Here’s my (weird) way that I judge seasons:
How excited am I to tune into/attend each game?
How many football seasons have we had where we were already eliminated from the bowl picture with a quarter of the season still to play?
Now THAT is an F grade—where the games are pointless to watch because they’re meaningless.
This is a 6-seed, top 20 KenPom team, with blowout wins over our rivals on the road, who battled through injuries, with two first round talents we get to enjoy watching. There’s no way I give these guys an F, regardless of what happens Friday.
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
To be clear, even if I worded it extremely poorly, in my head I was grading our postseason. A blowout loss on Friday would be an F combined with a ~B regular season for me, so somewhere in the C range overall.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Oh! That makes sense. I misunderstood, I thought you were grading the season overall.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
We’re currently a larger favorite over Xavier (-3.5) than Michigan is over UC San Diego (-2.5).
For y'all's brackets - and this might fall completely flat on its head tomorrow BUT... each of the last 4 years, one of the teams in the BTT final have lost in the first round: 2021 - OSU to Oral Roberts, 2022 - Iowa to Richmond, 2023 - Purdue to FDU in a 1-16, 2024 - Wisconsin to JMU.
And for a team like Michigan - that's won so many of those nip and tuck games - it's understandable they may not all that large a favorite vs a frisky UC San Diego team.
And for a team like Michigan - that's won so many of those nip and tuck games - it's understandable they may not all that large a favorite vs a frisky UC San Diego team.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Michigan’s region is weird. I have two brackets, and in one I have Michigan going down in the First Round … in the other, I have them squeaking through to the Elite Eight simply because I think Auburn face plants by the Sweet Sixteen and I don’t trust Texas A&M, haha.
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
It's either Auburn or Houston for me. Totally agree with you on the reasons for Auburn. Plus, every time I've watched them this season I don't get why so many people were so high on them. Very good team for sure, but I never saw a team that screamed "mortal lock for a title". More like a team that knew how to win close games at the end with an occasional "put it all together" performance like at Kentucky.
Gonzaga is a rough matchup for Houston. If they meet in the 2nd round, it would not shock me in the least to see Gonzaga win that game.
I almost put MSU in my Final Four in the Auburn bracket by process of elimination. Once I had Auburn out in the 2nd round to Louisville, none of those other teams screams "sure-fire Final Four" team to me. So I went with the coach who always seems to have his teams ready for the tournament.
Two years ago. FDU and Pittsburgh
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