A top 16-25 program historically doesn't mean you make the Sweet Sixteen perennially or anything close to 50 % of the time though, because there's naturally a lot of year to year ebb and flow as well as high/low extended periods. A period with a bunch of Sweet 16s in a relatively short time period is a historically great period for Illinois. That doesn't mean 1 in 20 years should be the "norm", not by any means, that's quite bad. But I also think expecting it as some sort of baseline for a solid season is unrealistic. There are maybe 5 programs that can expect that throughout the modern tournament era and then maybe another 5 at a given time based on where they are presently. 00-06 is basically the golden age of Illinois basketball post World War II. Until further notice, that's basically the program's "ceiling" (which is not a bad ceiling to be at to be fair), and while it's great to set high expectations, we also shouldn't pretend it's baseline. Illinois got a bit unlucky to get Self poached at the exact time Illinois could have really solidified itself as one of the preeminent programs of the 21st century but it is what it is. As far as sleeping giant, maybe, maybe not. Chicago kids are always kind of an ebb and flow for how they view Illinois, and outside of a small blip in time you certainly can't rely on like Central Illinois to be a consistent producer of elite high major talent.
I'd say 2020-2025 is a fairly decent indicator of where Illinois "should" be in the college basketball pecking order, which is not bad by any means. Basically, 7 seed (season cancelled before postseason, but that's about where they would have ended up based on projections), 1 seed, 4 seed, 9 seed, 3 seed, 6 seed. Perennial tournament team (average seed 5). 1 Big Ten regular season championship (that could have been two but for COVID shenanigans) and 2 BTT championships, in the deepest era for the Big Ten historically. Record of 6-5 in the Tournament with one underachievement and four about as expected, and then if they had but one over-achievement it would even that out. Using that as a standard, this season is pretty average within it (4th best out of the six and very close to the mean overall).