NBA Draft

[IlliniFan42]

Coby White and Josh Giddey

Coby was the NBA Eastern Conference player of the month in March. Giddey has been player out of his mind since Lavine left.

Coby/Giddey/Buzelis are actually pretty fun to watch. Even if the upside there probably isn't more than a play-in lower East seed.

The Bulls are really good at assembling a core group that's always missing one or two true superstars. The problem is in the NBA that equates to a perpetual play-in team.

 

[PepeSilvia]

Coby White and Josh Giddey

Coby was the NBA Eastern Conference player of the month in March. Giddey has been player out of his mind since Lavine left.

Coby/Giddey/Buzelis are actually pretty fun to watch. Even if the upside there probably isn't more than a play-in lower East seed.

I mean if you can pair those guys with the right stars it could be more than a playoff team. If they can manage to get a star wing a good center that could be a good starting lineup if Buzelis develops.

 

[pcvIllini]

Looking forward to seeing who ends up better, Buzelis or Flagg. Buzelis is lucky that he will have a better team around him than Flagg. Maluach will drop since he had 0 rebounds in the final four. Get him and try and pull a superstar and Bulls could be special.

 

[Zorak]

Looking forward to seeing who ends up better, Buzelis or Flagg. Buzelis is lucky that he will have a better team around him than Flagg. Maluach will drop since he had 0 rebounds in the final four. Get him and try and pull a superstar and Bulls could be special.

It is 1000% Flagg

 

[PepeSilvia]

Looking forward to seeing who ends up better, Buzelis or Flagg. Buzelis is lucky that he will have a better team around him than Flagg. Maluach will drop since he had 0 rebounds in the final four. Get him and try and pull a superstar and Bulls could be special.

I agree I think Malauch to the Bulls around 10 would be a best case scenario for them.

Take a shot on a center with superstar upside if you can develop him.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

I agree I think Malauch to the Bulls around 10 would be a best case scenario for them.

Take a shot on a center with superstar upside if you can develop him.

Fairly high floor too - Maluach. Player with simple, defined role... very talented, lengthy, athletic.

 

[illinitiger]

Realistically both KJ and Will would benefit from another year in college, both could be All Americans. They both need improvement in their games and/or bodies.

I know the draft rules prevent it, but with more freedom in the NIL world, it would be interesting for a player to be drafted then remain in college for another year instead of sitting at the end of an NBA bench or playing in the G-League.

That's a cool idea to sign NBA deal and continue developing in college...wish that could be a reality.

Related, I believe HS players are doing a little of that. (Commit to a college university and get advance on their NIL While still playing in HS).

 

[logjam]

Realistically both KJ and Will would benefit from another year in college, both could be All Americans. They both need improvement in their games and/or bodies.

I know the draft rules prevent it, but with more freedom in the NIL world, it would be interesting for a player to be drafted then remain in college for another year instead of sitting at the end of an NBA bench or playing in the G-League.

Only problem would be if a player got a bad injury during that extra year it would kinda screw the NBA drafter...

 

[illinifan323]

You obviously like Maluach more than most. There is zero question in my, and most people’s eyes, on who is #1. I think Maluach is a great prospect, but I wouldn’t even consider him before 4. Flagg has an All-Star floor, and MVP potential. You don’t need an over-active imagination to see both Harper and Bailey becoming franchise players, though it will probably take a couple years to see what they will become.

Maluach has a pretty high floor as a rim protector/ rebounder/ pick and roll finisher and potential DPOY type, but not an MVP. Maybe there is a jump shot in there, but it’s more likely he’s a Tyson Chandler type, which is certainly worthy of a high pick, but you wouldn’t pass up potential franchise guys to get him.

I would not touch Maluach. I see a less than Mo Bamba type career in the NBA. I really just do not see it with him. He has the length and athleticism but I do not see the skill in any way.

 

[PepeSilvia]

I would not touch Maluach. I see a less than Mo Bamba type career in the NBA. I really just do not see it with him. He has the length and athleticism but I do not see the skill in any way.

Don't really have to have any offensive skills to have value as a center. See Rudy Gobert.

 

[illinifan323]

Don't really have to have any offensive skills to have value as a center. See Rudy Gobert.

I agree with you but I don't think he will even be able to sniff Gobert socks. I could very well be wrong but I just do not see him being anything real in the NBA. IMO he would be a bust.

 

[DJRichardson4threee]

I hear a lot of talk about the sooner you go to the NBA, the sooner you get that second contract, but not enough talk about how common it is to never get a second contract. A quick google search suggests around 50% of players drafted never get a second contract. So in some ways, staying in college an extra few years (nowadays with NIL), is the better guarantee at making money over more years given that you might never get that second contract, assuming you don’t play yourself out of being drafted or get hurt. Anyway you look at it, these top players are still making life changing money at 18-20 years old. It’s whether or not they want to leave college life and college ball behind.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

I hear a lot of talk about the sooner you go to the NBA, the sooner you get that second contract, but not enough talk about how common it is to never get a second contract. A quick google search suggests around 50% of players drafted never get a second contract. So in some ways, staying in college an extra few years (nowadays with NIL), is the better guarantee at making money over more years given that you might never get that second contract, assuming you don’t play yourself out of being drafted or get hurt. Anyway you look at it, these top players are still making life changing money at 18-20 years old. It’s whether or not they want to leave college life and college ball behind.

In other words, if you go pro as soon as possible then you have a 50% chance of making tens of millions more than if you were to stay in college. If I'm a player with even an ounce of self confidence I'm betting on myself and taking those odds ten times out of ten.

Staying in college for as long as possible makes sense for guys like Hunter Dickinson, Kofi, etc. NIL is a life changer for them. But for guys who are surefire first round picks, there really doesn't need to be this much debate over what the right move is.

 

[DJRichardson4threee]

In other words, if you go pro as soon as possible then you have a 50% chance of making tens of millions more than if you were to stay in college. If I'm a player with even an ounce of self confidence I'm betting on myself and taking those odds ten times out of ten.

Staying in college for as long as possible makes sense for guys like Hunter Dickinson, Kofi, etc. NIL is a life changer for them. But for guys who are surefire first round picks, there really doesn't need to be this much debate over what the right move is.

Sure, but there’s also a 50% chance you’ll be out of the league playing in the g-league with no one watching and making orders of magnitude less money the rest of your life. If you go to Europe, you might find a team where there will actually be crowds at your games, but likely not making millions of dollars. I would rather make millions of dollars for a few more years and remain in college and postpone the potential tens of millions that would come with a second contract.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

Sure, but there’s also a 50% chance you’ll be out of the league playing in the g-league with no one watching and making orders of magnitude less money the rest of your life. If you go to Europe, you might find a team where there will actually be crowds at your games, but likely not making millions of dollars. I would rather make millions of dollars for a few more years and remain in college and postpone the potential tens of millions that would come with a second contract.

Yeah but where you are drafted makes a big difference. Thst 50% number is disproportionately made up of 2nd round picks. 1st round has much greater odds and lottery is a near lock to get a 2nd contract.

 

[Calvin]

Yeah but where you are drafted makes a big difference. Thst 50% number is disproportionately made up of 2nd round picks. 1st round has much greater odds and lottery is a near lock to get a 2nd contract.

There's also the downside of not performing to expectations. Whatever a player is projected to develop, if they don't stay on schedule, their draft stock drops. The draft puts a huge premium on potential. Teams need difference makers and stars to move up.

 

[DJRichardson4threee]

Yeah but where you are drafted makes a big difference. Thst 50% number is disproportionately made up of 2nd round picks. 1st round has much greater odds and lottery is a near lock to get a 2nd contract.

I don’t have exact numbers, but the google search that I referenced the 50% result was “what percent of first round draft picks never get a second nba contract?”, and you can imagine it’s an even higher percentage that don’t when considering draftees outside the lottery.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

I don’t have exact numbers, but the google search that I referenced the 50% result was “what percent of first round draft picks never get a second nba contract?”, and you can imagine it’s an even higher percentage that don’t when considering draftees outside the lottery.

Yeah, there's just no way that's true. I looked at the 2018 draft. Just kind of randomly picked a year far enough out that nobody could be on their rookie deals and we'd have some kind of career earnings data to work with. Here are the career NBA earnings of all the first round picks per Spotrac:

1. Deandre Ayton - $137,159,862
2. Marvin Bagley III - $73,102,717
3. Luka Doncic - $152,231,698
4. Jaren Jackson Jr. - $110,154,078
5. Trae Young - $146,431,303
6. Mo Bamba - $39,154,236
7. Wendell Carter Jr. - $60,887,877
8. Collin Sexton - $72,052,301
9. Kevin Knox - $26,979,002
10. Mikal Bridges - $83,422,120
11. Shai Gilgeous Alexander - $117,084,613
12. Miles Bridges - $51,178,354
13. Jerome Robinson - $10,128,458
14. Michael Porter Jr. - $115,041,808
15. Troy Brown Jr. - $20,278,922
16. Zhaire Smith - $8,823,315
17. Donte DiVincenzo - $39,820,178
18. Lonnie Walker IV - $21,891,552 (note: 2nd contract was just a 1-year deal, but was for over $6 million)
19. Kevin Huerter - $58,796,679
20. Josh Okogie - $24,356,289
21. Grayson Allen - $44,051,898
22. Chandler Hutchison- $10,640,969
23. Aaron Holiday - $19,563,134
24. Anfernee Simons - $19,563,134
25. Moritz Wagner - $28,739,979
26. Landry Shamet - $30,879,455
27. Robert Williams III - $43,877,048
28. Jacob Evans - $5,467,073
29. Dzanan Musa - $5,427,165
30. Omari Spellman - $5,387,948

I bolded the players that did never got a subsequent deal of at least 2-years in length. Even of those a lot of them continued to play in the NBA and get 1-year deals for at least some period of time. Basically the last 3 picks in the first round were the only ones who never got any kind of NBA deal after their rookie deal. Those are also the only guys who made less than $10 million in the NBA. And they still made over $5 million each! If you were picked in the lottery, meanwhile, you are almost certainly still in the NBA 7 years later and are more likely than not to have made over $50 million so far in your NBA career.

 

[DJRichardson4threee]

Yeah, there's just no way that's true. I looked at the 2018 draft. Just kind of randomly picked a year far enough out that nobody could be on their rookie deals and we'd have some kind of career earnings data to work with. Here are the career NBA earnings of all the first round picks per Spotrac:

1. Deandre Ayton - $137,159,862
2. Marvin Bagley III - $73,102,717
3. Luka Doncic - $152,231,698
4. Jaren Jackson Jr. - $110,154,078
5. Trae Young - $146,431,303
6. Mo Bamba - $39,154,236
7. Wendell Carter Jr. - $60,887,877
8. Collin Sexton - $72,052,301
9. Kevin Knox - $26,979,002
10. Mikal Bridges - $83,422,120
11. Shai Gilgeous Alexander - $117,084,613
12. Miles Bridges - $51,178,354
13. Jerome Robinson - $10,128,458
14. Michael Porter Jr. - $115,041,808
15. Troy Brown Jr. - $20,278,922
16. Zhaire Smith - $8,823,315
17. Donte DiVincenzo - $39,820,178
18. Lonnie Walker IV - $21,891,552 (note: 2nd contract was just a 1-year deal, but was for over $6 million)
19. Kevin Huerter - $58,796,679
20. Josh Okogie - $24,356,289
21. Grayson Allen - $44,051,898
22. Chandler Hutchison- $10,640,969
23. Aaron Holiday - $19,563,134
24. Anfernee Simons - $19,563,134
25. Moritz Wagner - $28,739,979
26. Landry Shamet - $30,879,455
27. Robert Williams III - $43,877,048
28. Jacob Evans - $5,467,073
29. Dzanan Musa - $5,427,165
30. Omari Spellman - $5,387,948

I bolded the players that did never got a subsequent deal of at least 2-years in length. Even of those a lot of them continued to play in the NBA and get 1-year deals for at least some period of time. Basically the last 3 picks in the first round were the only ones who never got any kind of NBA deal after their rookie deal. Those are also the only guys who made less than $10 million in the NBA. And they still made over $5 million each! If you were picked in the lottery, meanwhile, you are almost certainly still in the NBA 7 years later and are more likely than not to have made over $50 million so far in your NBA career.

Thanks for sharing that! I did think 50% seemed high for first rounders, so thanks for looking those up.

 

[ILLfated]

Saw some cool draft updates according to CBS sports this morning.

 

[SescIllini]

Saw some cool draft updates according to CBS sports this morning.

Nolan Traore has fallen since last year, saw him listed as top 4 pick in most drafts.

Would take KJ over Kon Knuepple, KJ has overall better game minus shooting. Believe KJ is one year younger

 

[CoalCity]

Saw some cool draft updates according to CBS sports this morning.

No Euros except Traore that aren't already playing college ball in the US on there, would expect some guys to drop as you go down the list

 

[DeeIL89]

Saw some cool draft updates according to CBS sports this morning.

KJ with the Spurs would be an awesome situation for him. The organization loves their Euro players and KJ playing in the backcourt with Fox and do pick and roll with Wemby would be cool. But I guess the Spurs already have a backcourt with the Castle kid.

 

[Illinicpa14]

Saw some cool draft updates according to CBS sports this morning.

Danny wolf is a top 20 pick? That seems insane to me. Very nice college player but I’d assume he’d get cooked by just about anyone on the defensive end.

 

[IlliniFaninHoosierLand]

Danny wolf is a top 20 pick? That seems insane to me. Very nice college player but I’d assume he’d get cooked by just about anyone on the defensive end.

He's going to be a situational fit for some NBA teams. His defense (along with his athleticism and shooting) are going to be a concern but his legitimate perimeter versatility and feel for a player his size will be things that NBA teams will like.