Illini Basketball

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#31      

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#32      
Florida Gators Director of Analytics Interview

Thought this was interesting and relevant given some of the complaints about how the team has been run

-College is different than the pros, talent gaps are much bigger, leads to different strategy than what makes sense in today's NBA (which feels like how the Illini are run)
-Specifically mentions how they don't want to be near the top of the country in 3 point shots attempted because they can get better shots at the rim against most teams - take a lower variance approach when the talent gap is really wide
-Building culture and continuity is usually a better strategy than getting the very best recruits given cost and likelihood they won't stay for long
-Interesting in game strategy discussion on fouling, endgame, etc.

If someone here is connected to the staff, please send this to them.

 
#33      
Florida Gators Director of Analytics Interview

Thought this was interesting and relevant given some of the complaints about how the team has been run

-College is different than the pros, talent gaps are much bigger, leads to different strategy than what makes sense in today's NBA (which feels like how the Illini are run)
-Specifically mentions how they don't want to be near the top of the country in 3 point shots attempted because they can get better shots at the rim against most teams - take a lower variance approach when the talent gap is really wide
-Building culture and continuity is usually a better strategy than getting the very best recruits given cost and likelihood they won't stay for long
-Interesting in game strategy discussion on fouling, endgame, etc.

If someone here is connected to the staff, please send this to them.

So...does Illini have a director of Analytics?...sounds like good position to groom asst coach...
 
#40      
Florida Gators Director of Analytics Interview

Thought this was interesting and relevant given some of the complaints about how the team has been run

-College is different than the pros, talent gaps are much bigger, leads to different strategy than what makes sense in today's NBA (which feels like how the Illini are run)
-Specifically mentions how they don't want to be near the top of the country in 3 point shots attempted because they can get better shots at the rim against most teams - take a lower variance approach when the talent gap is really wide
-Building culture and continuity is usually a better strategy than getting the very best recruits given cost and likelihood they won't stay for long
-Interesting in game strategy discussion on fouling, endgame, etc.

If someone here is connected to the staff, please send this to them.

I'm not saying Florida didn't have a great offense but 43.7% of their shots were threes which is like top 20% in the country for highest 3pt rate.

Not super far behind the Illini at 47.2 and very similar to teams like Texas Tech, UConn, and Tennessee.
 
#41      
Here's the full video. this discussion around 52:00 -

That’s the kind of apology that is only for Bruce Pearl to clear his conscience- it does nothing for the recipient. As Deon said it’s 20 years too late, I know Collins never forgave him for ruining his career that is for sure.

If Pearl was truly sorry he would have made a public apology and cleared Deon and Collins’ name and admitted to doctoring the tape, lying about the incident and having a college buddy in NCAA enforcement conspire with him to pursue the case. This would have been detrimental to Bruce’s reputation and career and would have been what true remorse looks like - not an empty apology in private that doesn’t change anything
 
#42      
I'm not saying Florida didn't have a great offense but 43.7% of their shots were threes which is like top 20% in the country for highest 3pt rate.

Not super far behind the Illini at 47.2 and very similar to teams like Texas Tech, UConn, and Tennessee.
Definitely get your point. But I/he said they do not want to be at the very top in terms of three point rate. Which "traditional analytics" (if that's a thing) would generally disagree with, given a good three point shot is worth more than many two point shots. Top 20% in the country is not really an extreme amount of three point shooting given their personnel (primary scorers are 6'2'', 6'3'', and 6'4''

When you're superior athletically, and you make a serious focus to get dunks, layups, or shots very close to the rim, you can get better shots than even an open three. I just don't get the sense that our staff prioritizes this on offsense (it seemed to get better late in the season). At the margins, an extra 2-3 layups/dunks per game vs medicore 3's is an extra point or two in expected scoring -- it adds up.

I also get the sense we are lacking on defense "analytically" -- the defense has been pretty bad the last few years, and while we might not have had A+ teams in terms of athleticism, the teams have been at least average, probably above average relative to Big Ten standards, and we've finished 40th and 80th in defensive effeciency over the last two years (KenPom). The game is changing, my overarching question is "I wonder how well the staff is adjusting to that fact?"
 
#43      
I'm not saying Florida didn't have a great offense but 43.7% of their shots were threes which is like top 20% in the country for highest 3pt rate.

Not super far behind the Illini at 47.2 and very similar to teams like Texas Tech, UConn, and Tennessee.

Yeah, this

Of the F4 teams, Florida at 27.4 attempts/gm, Duke at 26.2 attempts/gm, Auburn at 25.2 attempts/gm

Houston only 21 attempts/gm but they were 359th in the nation in possessions per game
 
#44      
Definitely get your point. But I/he said they do not want to be at the very top in terms of three point rate. Which "traditional analytics" (if that's a thing) would generally disagree with, given a good three point shot is worth more than many two point shots. Top 20% in the country is not really an extreme amount of three point shooting given their personnel (primary scorers are 6'2'', 6'3'', and 6'4''

When you're superior athletically, and you make a serious focus to get dunks, layups, or shots very close to the rim, you can get better shots than even an open three. I just don't get the sense that our staff prioritizes this on offsense (it seemed to get better late in the season). At the margins, an extra 2-3 layups/dunks per game vs medicore 3's is an extra point or two in expected scoring -- it adds up.

I also get the sense we are lacking on defense "analytically" -- the defense has been pretty bad the last few years, and while we might not have had A+ teams in terms of athleticism, the teams have been at least average, probably above average relative to Big Ten standards, and we've finished 40th and 80th in defensive effeciency over the last two years (KenPom). The game is changing, my overarching question is "I wonder how well the staff is adjusting to that fact?"
I feel the same. Threes are a huge part of the game, in HS, college and the NBA. But the NBA teams can find, and definitely develop, multiple good shooters. In college, shooters are more hit and miss. Not a lot worse by any means, compared to the NBA, but just not good enough to put up as many threes as a team like ours did this past season. So: shoot lots of threes; but make them be good threes for our so-so shooters and get a few more attempts closer to the rim.
 
#45      
Yeah, this

Of the F4 teams, Florida at 27.4 attempts/gm, Duke at 26.2 attempts/gm, Auburn at 25.2 attempts/gm

Houston only 21 attempts/gm but they were 359th in the nation in possessions per game

Advanced stats are fun. I'm too lazy to go too far down the rabbit hole today but:
  • offensive rebounds don't count as a new possession.
  • attempts where you are fouled don't go in the scorebook unless you make it
The first bullet can inflate attempts of both 2's/3's when there are multiple on a possession. The second can inflate 3pt attempts ratio as I'll wager you get fouled on 2's more than 3's.
 
#46      
Advanced stats are fun. I'm too lazy to go too far down the rabbit hole today but:
  • offensive rebounds don't count as a new possession.
  • attempts where you are fouled don't go in the scorebook unless you make it
The first bullet can inflate attempts of both 2's/3's when there are multiple on a possession. The second can inflate 3pt attempts ratio as I'll wager you get fouled on 2's more than 3's.

Unsure what you're getting at?

There were 4 final four teams... they all shot a ton of 3s....

So I tend to agree, a rabbit hole here is pointless
 
#47      
I think another major difference that needs to be taken into account when discussing applicability of analytics between the NCAA and NBA is officiating. Some of B1G crews seem to encourage muggings on the perimeter, where the NBA has largely cleaned that up.
 
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