Illini Football 2025

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#103      
TheFlyingIllini1317
Fighter of the Nightman said:
As I start to consider what my ~official~ predictions are for this season, I was looking back at the past three seasons ... and there are two things I am fairly sure of going into this year...
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Another thing I've noticed, too, is outside of Penn State and Purdue we've always won our "rematch" game to a team we lost to the previous year. This year only Wisconsin could be that team and the game we lost is 2023 so I'm not sure if it counts.
 
#104      
Ander1345
TheFlyingIllini1317 said:
Another thing I've noticed, too, is outside of Penn State and Purdue we've always won our "rematch" game to a team we lost to the previous year. This year only Wisconsin could be that team and the game we lost is 2023 so I'm not sure if it counts.
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Their OC is Grimes who was OC at Kansas last year. They were gashing us with Neal and then just went away from it for reasons I haven't quite figured out.

I was less than impressed with his play calling, though later in the season they looked much better offensively.

Basically what I'm saying is hit em hard on offense and don't let up for a second.
 
#105      
RockfordIllini
Ander1345 said:
Their OC is Grimes who was OC at Kansas last year. They were gashing us with Neal and then just went away from it for reasons I haven't quite figured out.

I was less than impressed with his play calling, though later in the season they looked much better offensively.

Basically what I'm saying is hit em hard on offense and don't let up for a second.
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Yeah, badgers seem to think Grimes is going to fix everything and they will get back to where they were during the peak of the Bret/Chryst days offensively, but not sure I see it.

2023 Kansas offense was so dynamic, and kept us so off balance we didn’t know which was was up. 2024 under Grimes I would describe as “the thrill is gone.” Felt very bland and predictable (see X. Scott’s pick 6).

Plus, they’ve been running the air raid the last 2 years. Probably never got the right personnel to run it effectively, but feel like now they are in the same loop we were in for 30 years. I think changing schemes every couple of years makes guys slow as they are thinking/processing instead of reacting, and often the personnel isn’t a great fit between schemes.

Maybe the personnel they had aligns more with what Grimes wants to do than an air raid, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
 
#109      
RIP_Chief_2003
KF looked slow BEFORE his injury and we were screaming to put him in at LB. You think all of a sudden he is going to turn into a decent RB after an injury? Laughrey should get RB1 carries with KF and Valentine behind him in situational rotations.
 
#111      
Todd99
Mr. Tibbs said:
we may very well sell out all games except the opener
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I don't understand why the home opener doesn't sell out all the time. We always play a favorable matchup, the weather is good, and we've won the home opener every year, with the exception of the COVID year, for as long as I can remember, even in the bad years. And especially with the anticipation and excitement of this season, it seems like it should be a hot ticket. Is it because of the Thursday/Friday scheduling?
 
#112      
Dkayak
Todd99 said:
I don't understand why the home opener doesn't sell out all the time. We always play a favorable matchup, the weather is good, and we've won the home opener every year, with the exception of the COVID year, for as long as I can remember, even in the bad years. And especially with the anticipation and excitement of this season, it seems like it should be a hot ticket. Is it because of the Thursday/Friday scheduling?
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Friday is tougher for anyone not living nearby. It’s also High School football night, so there’s competition for fan attention, at least those with kids in school.
 
#113      
illiniE
Todd99 said:
I don't understand why the home opener doesn't sell out all the time. We always play a favorable matchup, the weather is good, and we've won the home opener every year, with the exception of the COVID year, for as long as I can remember, even in the bad years. And especially with the anticipation and excitement of this season, it seems like it should be a hot ticket. Is it because of the Thursday/Friday scheduling?
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People travel on labor day weekend. Add in a FCS opponent and a Friday night. I will be there, but I go to every game except for the Thanksgiving game because I travel that week.
 
#115      
Mr. Tibbs
Todd99 said:
I don't understand why the home opener doesn't sell out all the time. We always play a favorable matchup, the weather is good, and we've won the home opener every year, with the exception of the COVID year, for as long as I can remember, even in the bad years. And especially with the anticipation and excitement of this season, it seems like it should be a hot ticket. Is it because of the Thursday/Friday scheduling?
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yup
 
#116      
Illini2010-11
Todd99 said:
I don't understand why the home opener doesn't sell out all the time. We always play a favorable matchup, the weather is good, and we've won the home opener every year, with the exception of the COVID year, for as long as I can remember, even in the bad years. And especially with the anticipation and excitement of this season, it seems like it should be a hot ticket. Is it because of the Thursday/Friday scheduling?
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I think it is a combo of factors:

1) Labor Day weekend is always hit or miss - some students go home (even though they have only been on campus for a week or two); other fans travel with family for other events.
2) Playing an FCS school is not very appealing for a lot of fans that would be traveling down -- in expected down years, there is no appeal to possibly be in a competitive game with someone you are supposed to destroy. In years like this year, it is expected to be a big win, so it appeals slightly less.
3) Weeknight games are also likely to dampen the crowd -- it is slightly harder for people that travel hours to get to the games to attend, and for an FCS opponent, the appeal is very low. There are also fans that get drawn to high school football for various reasons. On a side note, I still remember a few years back where we had a thunderstorm on Friday night game to open year, and the game got postponed after a two-hour or so delay. The rain date was for the Saturday and the crowds were completely dead.


To me, the only real way of getting real appeal to a Labor Day game is if the matchup is vs a top-tier school, and I am not sure there is real appetite for having the first game vs a super high-quality opponent. Either way, I expect a fairly good crowd to show up for the first game this year, as there is a ton of hype surrounding the program. It really would not surprise me to see a lot of walk-ups if the weather is nice.
 
#117      
TheFlyingIllini1317
Predictions and thoughts:

Fri, Aug 29 Western Illinois - W
Sat, Sept 6 at Duke - 50/50
Sat, Sept 13 Western Michigan - W
Sat, Sept 20 at Indiana - L
Sat, Sept 27 USC - W
Sat, Oct 4 at Purdue
Sat, Oct 11 Ohio State - L
Sat, Oct 25 at Washington - L
Sat, Nov 1 Rutgers - W (I think Rutgers will be fired up after the loss and this will be a nail-biter
Sat, Nov 15 Maryland - W
Sat, Nov 22 at Wisconsin - W
Sat, Nov 29 Northwestern - W

I'm right at 8.5 Wins. Schedule is trickier than people think Duke, IU, USC, OSU, and Washington all could be or are top 25 teams. 8-4 would be three seasons with at least 8 wins in four year. Would be our first time ever doing that. The season kinda comes down to how we do @ Duke, @ IU, and USC. Taking 2/3 sets us up for a playoff run and makes the OSU game huge. Key to the season is a WR to step up as a #1, or we have a consistent stable like IU did last year, stopping the run, creating more sacks/havoc, and improving on 3rd down. If we do that we can get to the playoff.

Also, the national media is kinda forgetting our bowl win, without Pat Bryant too. I'll be very interested to see on the 27th how many Gamecocks make an NFL roster and if TeRah makes one too. Here is their draft recap and priority FA signings:

Tonka Hemingway DT, No. 135 overall to Las Vegas Raiders 4th round

Kyle Kennard DE, No. 125 overall to Los Angeles Chargers 4th round. Didn't play in the game

Demetrius Knight Jr. LB, No. 49 overall to Cincinnati Bengals 2nd round

TJ Sanders DT, No. 41 overall to the Buffalo Bills 2nd round

Nick Emmanwori, No. 35 overall to the Seattle Seahawks
Emmanwori, a safety was selected with third pick of the second round on April 25. Played the first half

They had 7 F/A signings, one of whom, Rocket Sanders, didn't play in the game. There's a decent chance they will have had 6-7 NFL players in that game, and we ran the ball well in the 4th quarter on two NFL DT picks.

21 days away, LET'S GO! BEAT WESTERN ILLINOIS
 
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#119      
Fighter of the Nightman
Todd99 said:
I don't understand why the home opener doesn't sell out all the time. We always play a favorable matchup, the weather is good, and we've won the home opener every year, with the exception of the COVID year, for as long as I can remember, even in the bad years. And especially with the anticipation and excitement of this season, it seems like it should be a hot ticket. Is it because of the Thursday/Friday scheduling?
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I agree in theory, as I always felt like it should be more like the MLB, where even the teams that get bad attendance can draw a huge crowd for Opening Day. I would say a couple factors play a part:

1. Attendance takes a long time to "build up" ... it tends to lag behind success. Our attendance in 2023 when we were 5-7 was A LOT better than in 2022 when we started off 7-1, simply because we hadn't built up the attendance floor yet. The flip side of this is that we actually had better attendance for basketball in 2008 (when we had the most losses in school history) than we did for our 2024 Elite Eight/BTT championship season.

2. While our attendance has improved significantly, we still SOMEWHAT rely on visiting fans. Programs like Michigan, Iowa, OSU, etc. provide a couple thousand fans to push us toward that finish line of a sellout.

3. The day of the week definitely plays a factor, IMO. If you look at the ticket website, the attendance looks better for the WMU game than it does for this one. I venture to say that if you put the WMU game/time (6:00 pm on a Saturday night) on Labor Day Weekend for the home opener, we would be looking at a sellout or very close.
 
#120      
Illini2010-11
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I agree in theory, as I always felt like it should be more like the MLB, where even the teams that get bad attendance can draw a huge crowd for Opening Day. I would say a couple factors play a part:

1. Attendance takes a long time to "build up" ... it tends to lag behind success. Our attendance in 2023 when we were 5-7 was A LOT better than in 2022 when we started off 7-1, simply because we hadn't built up the attendance floor yet. The flip side of this is that we actually had better attendance for basketball in 2008 (when we had the most losses in school history) than we did for our 2024 Elite Eight/BTT championship season.

2. While our attendance has improved significantly, we still SOMEWHAT rely on visiting fans. Programs like Michigan, Iowa, OSU, etc. provide a couple thousand fans to push us toward that finish line of a sellout.

3. The day of the week definitely plays a factor, IMO. If you look at the ticket website, the attendance looks better for the WMU game than it does for this one. I venture to say that if you put the WMU game/time (6:00 pm on a Saturday night) on Labor Day Weekend for the home opener, we would be looking at a sellout or very close.
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A major difference is that baseball fields are substantially smaller than filling a football stadium. You can get Memorial Stadium at roughly 2/3 capacity (probably would not call it a very large crowd) and still have a larger attendance than what you would see at the Sox or Cubs Opening Day if they both sold out. In addition, in late March/early April, there is much less competition for things to do, relative to Labor Day weekend when the Illini tend to have Home Opener.

The only baseball stadium that has a near close capacity to Memorial Stadium would be Dodger Stadium (which holds 56,000 people). Every other baseball stadium holds <50,000 people. I really think it is apples-to-oranges comparison.
 
#121      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
IMO people are overly exaggerating the Washington game. I'd put both USC and IU as harder games (by far).

The goal should be to win Duke, and then split USC/IU (just don't lose both back to back).
 
#122      
Fighter of the Nightman
Illini2010-11 said:
A major difference is that baseball fields are substantially smaller than filling a football stadium. You can get Memorial Stadium at roughly 2/3 capacity (probably would not call it a very large crowd) and still have a larger attendance than what you would see at the Sox or Cubs Opening Day if they both sold out. In addition, in late March/early April, there is much less competition for things to do, relative to Labor Day weekend when the Illini tend to have Home Opener.

The only baseball stadium that has a near close capacity to Memorial Stadium would be Dodger Stadium (which holds 56,000 people). Every other baseball stadium holds <50,000 people. I really think it is apples-to-oranges comparison.
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That's fair, but I have always felt attendance tends to naturally be proportional to each sport. In other words, ticket prices and people's habits will adjust for the capacity of baseball vs. football vs. basketball, and the crowds will adjust accordingly. Basically, I still feel there should be much more of an attendance bump for a home opener than there seems to be.
 
#124      
Genesis
There are obviously a lot of factors involved here, but when it comes to MLB vs CFB home openers, another factor may be that in the Spring, many are anxious to get out and involved in outdoor activities after being cooped up all winter (taking advantage of the warming weather), but for the CFB home opener, they're trying to get their last summer activities in (boating, swimming, picnics) before they mentally shift to fall sports. Until my kids got into college (UIUC), they would rather go to their high school game Friday, and invite friends over to swim, than go to the Illini game. But you make a great point, Fighter, that baseball home openers generally get a lot more respect and enthusiasm than football home openers.
 
#125      
Mr. Tibbs
the problem we have low attendance at home openers is multiple
a. its usually labor day weekend
b. its blazing hot if a Sat aft
c. Thurs or Fri nights are tough for people driving + 2.5 hours
d. FCS or weak opponents dont excite anyone

I know it all excuses , but collectively they add up and lead to the issues of only selling 40,000 tix and having only 25,000-30,000 show up
 
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