Illinois #12 in Preseason Coaches Poll

[Illini2010-11]

I can remember that as recently as…last season…looking at the schedule and trying to find 6 wins to become bowl eligible. It’s nice to be able to be disappointed with 8 wins. I think 9 is the floor for this team barring a significant injury or two.

I am going to be slightly more conservative with the floor for team. I think 8 wins is my soft floor:

6 Games where Illini should be a solid favorite: (WIU, WMU, @Purdue, Rutgers, MD, and NW)

5 Games where there is more of a coin-flip or slight favorite one way or another: (@Duke, @IU, USC, @Wash, @Wisc)

1 Game where the Illini will likely be a solid underdog: (OSU)

If the Illini take care of the games they are solid favorites you get to bowl eligibility, and go 2-3 in the more coin-flip games (much more conservative in nature), you get to 8 wins.

If the team only wins 7 games, it means that the Illini went 1-4 in coin-flip games or slipped up somewhere in the games that should be won.

If the Illini take care of business in games they should win, and have a winning record in the more coin-flip games, you are at the 9 wins.

In short, this schedule is very favorable to get to 9+ wins. As the season progresses, it is very well possible that the Wisconsin game shifts into the solid favorite territory. Pull off an upset against OSU or go 4-1 in the middle category (winning all the should win games), and you get to 10 wins.

Easy to see why Vegas set the over/under at 8.5 wins. They must see 8 wins as the floor as well.

 

[joeybcrazy13]

Username checks out

Your gosh darn right it does 100 percent crazy!! ILL baby!!!

 

[and 69 others]

Your gosh darn right it does 100 percent crazy!! ILL baby!!!

I like the cut of your jib.

 

[BretMyBeachHouse]

The flip lesson of this is that sometimes a team's record does not reflect how good a football team it is, and it's entirely possible we are exactly as good as we expect to be and yet will suffer a similar fate to Kansas.

Obviously hoping this is not the case, but having seen that happen I'm also not going to be freaking out if we play good football but we still end up not reaching the lofty win totals we all are expecting and/or hoping for.

This is where I'm at. It’s a fine line between winning and losing each weekend with teams like us.

 

[Illiniguy74]

Oh I am optimistic. Cautiously optimistic. Bert is the best coach we've had since at least Mackovic & maybe on his way to being the best coach any of us younger than 80 have ever seen. I'd just like to see a solid season. That could be 9-3 or 10-2 or with a bad break it could be 8-4. Just establish that the program can at least be solid & competent when there is some expectation from the fanbase. Keep the momentum rolling.

Playoffs would of course be wonderful, but we could lose a couple we shouldn't, still have a good season & keep the program headed in a positive direction. That to me is the biggest key cause I can remember what those dud seasons do to the fanbase. Hype built up only to be let down does more to kill a fanbase than a perpetually mediocre to bad program. It's a lot of why our fanbase is so skittish at times. Myself included.

IMO, Bret Bielema and Mike White are cowinners in the best football head coaches of my lifetime. I do give a sentimental nod to Pete Elliot as he was the coach when I first became an Illini fan at age 9.

 

[Dan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1953442502289375625

 

[Curbelo Fanboy]

IMO, Bret Bielema and Mike White are cowinners in the best football head coaches of my lifetime. I do give a sentimental nod to Pete Elliot as he was the coach when I first became an Illini fan at age 9.

I'm too young for Eliot. I've always thought Mackovic was on the cusp of a real huge run at IL when he left for Texas. I know he'd have done a heck of a lot more with the Rice/Hardy/Howard/Holocek years than Coach Death Penalty Tepper could pull off. I still have nightmares about those wasted seasons. He's a great man by all accounts but is on the Mt Rushmore of worst head football coaches in D1 history. Sadly, Beckman might be up there with him also.

 

[Old.Edgy]

I'm too young for Eliot. I've always thought Mackovic was on the cusp of a real huge run at IL when he left for Texas. I know he'd have done a heck of a lot more with the Rice/Hardy/Howard/Holocek years than Coach Death Penalty Tepper could pull off. I still have nightmares about those wasted seasons. He's a great man by all accounts but is on the Mt Rushmore of worst head football coaches in D1 history. Sadly, Beckman might be up there with him also.

Many people confuse Ray Eliot - who retired in '59 - and Pete Elliot (not related) who coached Dick Butkus and the Rose Bowl team... Unfortunately he was also one of the fathers of the slush fund that landed us with Valek, Blackman, and Moeller, before we could get White on board... We've made some really bad, bad decisions in our football hires over the generations, but I actually feel good that we have finally found a really, really good long-term winner...

 

[Illiniguy74]

Many people confuse Ray Eliot - who retired in '59 - and Pete Elliot (not related) who coached Dick Butkus and the Rose Bowl team... Unfortunately he was also one of the fathers of the slush fund that landed us with Valek, Blackman, and Moeller, before we could get White on board... We've made some really bad, bad decisions in our football hires over the generations, but I actually feel good that we have finally found a really, really good long-term winner...

This is my take on the slush fund situation. To describe Coach Elliot as "one of the fathers" connotes that he was one of the creators of the fund. I don't believe that was the case. He simply went along with what was a "standard" practice with most college football programs at that time. Many/most were guilty of much greater infractions and excesses than Illinois. For example:

As a prominent defensive end for Michigan State University from 1964 to 1966, Bubba Smith was known for cruising the campus in his Cadillac, which was affectionately called the "BubbaMobile" or "BubbaCar". This car became part of his larger-than-life persona on campus.

The Big 10 power clique was out to get Illinois to "suppress our success" and make an example that would make the conference look more competitively clean as compared to the SEC and Big 8. It was all a sham.

 

[Brosky]

Ray Eliot's last name was Nuspickle. Not sure on the spelling. He coached some really good Illini teams.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

This is my take on the slush fund situation. To describe Coach Elliot as "one of the fathers" connotes that he was one of the creators of the fund. I don't believe that was the case. He simply went along with what was a "standard" practice with most college football programs at that time. Many/most were guilty of much greater infractions and excesses than Illinois. For example:

As a prominent defensive end for Michigan State University from 1964 to 1966, Bubba Smith was known for cruising the campus in his Cadillac, which was affectionately called the "BubbaMobile" or "BubbaCar". This car became part of his larger-than-life persona on campus.

The Big 10 power clique was out to get Illinois to "suppress our success" and make an example that would make the conference look more competitively clean as compared to the SEC and Big 8. It was all a sham.

This was before my time and I'm sure it's possible everyone else was doing the slush fund thing, but your example is not the same thing. There's a difference between boosters buying players cars or giving them money, and the slush fund, which consisted of pooled money known to the football and basketball programs, and whose allocations to players were directed by the head football and head basketball coaches and the athletic director. If you can find any other instance where this happened and the NCAA found out but turned a blind eye I would be interested.

 

[jrichisamazing]

The flip lesson of this is that sometimes a team's record does not reflect how good a football team it is, and it's entirely possible we are exactly as good as we expect to be and yet will suffer a similar fate to Kansas.

Obviously hoping this is not the case, but having seen that happen I'm also not going to be freaking out if we play good football but we still end up not reaching the lofty win totals we all are expecting and/or hoping for.

100% agree. And I'm not completely buying into this being an easy schedule either. This schedule COULD be easy, but I could also see it turning into a gauntlet. Michigan at home was our 3rd toughest game last year. We could have up to 6 games tougher than that this year.

@Duke
@IU
USC
tOSU
@Wash
@Wisc

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

100% agree. And I'm not completely buying into this being an easy schedule either. This schedule COULD be easy, but I could also see it turning into a gauntlet. Michigan at home was our 3rd toughest game last year. We could have up to 6 games tougher than that this year.

@Duke
@IU
USC
tOSU
@Wash
@Wisc

I guess the two big differences for me this year why I feel this "might be an 'easier' schedule" or whatever are that (A) I just have a lot more faith in this year's team to be good as we head into the season and (B) there aren't as many "auto loss" games like at PSU and at Oregon. OSU is our toughest game by far, but we get them at home for what will likely be an insane atmosphere. I think road games at Duke, Indiana, Washington, etc. will certainly be tough, and this is by no means an "easy" schedule. However, OSU is the only game where I will go into it expecting a loss and hoping for a win ... the rest of the tougher games are going to feel much more like the KU game felt to me last year - while I totally am aware that we could reasonably lose, I also have genuine faith that we will win if we bring our A-game.

 

[lstewart53x3]

100% agree. And I'm not completely buying into this being an easy schedule either. This schedule COULD be easy, but I could also see it turning into a gauntlet. Michigan at home was our 3rd toughest game last year. We could have up to 6 games tougher than that this year.

@Duke
@IU
USC
tOSU
@Wash
@Wisc

Another way to look at it, using KFord’s end of season ratings, we played 6 games against teams who finished the season rated higher than us:

Illinois (38)
—
Kansas (32)
Minnesota (28)
Michigan (26)
South Carolina (12)
Oregon (8)
Penn St (6)

With honorable mention to Nebraska (39).

Whereas this year, using KFord’s model again, we’re scheduled to play just 3 games against teams rated higher than us:

Illinois (30)
—
USC (19)
Indiana (23)
Ohio St (2)

@Washington (35), @Wisconsin (41), and @Duke (46) will certainly be tough games, but we shouldn’t be out-talented in any of those games.

 

[Illini2010-11]

Another way to look at it, using KFord’s end of season ratings, we played 6 games against teams who finished the season rated higher than us:

Illinois (38)
—
Kansas (32)
Minnesota (28)
Michigan (26)
South Carolina (12)
Oregon (8)
Penn St (6)

With honorable mention to Nebraska (39).

Whereas this year, using KFord’s model again, we’re scheduled to play just 3 games against teams rated higher than us:

Illinois (30)
—
USC (19)
Indiana (23)
Ohio St (2)

@Washington (35), @Wisconsin (41), and @Duke (46) will certainly be tough games, but we shouldn’t be out-talented in any of those games.

And regarding the bolded, two of those games will be at home with very engaged fans, and IU is early in the season where they will not have been challenged. Two of the losses were on the road last year were against teams that made the CFP, and unless IU repeats their success from last year, we will not have that type of road game again this season.

Given the team being much more experienced going into the season, the only real concern I have is the luck factor going in the opposite direction (Illini won so many tight games last season).

 

[Curbelo Fanboy]

And regarding the bolded, two of those games will be at home with very engaged fans, and IU is early in the season where they will not have been challenged. Two of the losses were on the road last year were against teams that made the CFP, and unless IU repeats their success from last year, we will not have that type of road game again this season.

Given the team being much more experienced going into the season, the only real concern I have is the luck factor going in the opposite direction (Illini won so many tight games last season).

Hopefully our talent is at a level where we can take more games by the throat in the 2nd half. It seems Bret has been pretty conservative in games so far at Illinois. Offensive play calling gets conservative when we get a lead. Less so last year than prior years but still some. With good reason, I think he knew deep down we didn't have a talent edge on teams so if we got a lead we'd try to hold on & be pretty bland in playcalling.

He has elevated the talent to such a point where I think now in a lot of cases we can "go for the throat" when the opportunity presents itself. It's harder to have that mindset if you don't have the talent to pull it off. Hopefully that helps turn a few of those tight games where 1 play can beat you into 14 point victories where you aren't always living on the edge.

 

[SampsonRelpenk]

Another way to look at it, using KFord’s end of season ratings, we played 6 games against teams who finished the season rated higher than us:

Illinois (38)
—
Kansas (32)
Minnesota (28)
Michigan (26)
South Carolina (12)
Oregon (8)
Penn St (6)

With honorable mention to Nebraska (39).

Whereas this year, using KFord’s model again, we’re scheduled to play just 3 games against teams rated higher than us:

Illinois (30)
—
USC (19)
Indiana (23)
Ohio St (2)

@Washington (35), @Wisconsin (41), and @Duke (46) will certainly be tough games, but we shouldn’t be out-talented in any of those games.

I remembered our preseason SP+ ranking being higher (as of spring, #19), so the same idea with the different model states that we're scheduled to face just one team rated higher than us, Ohio State. Of course they happen to be #1 by that metric, but we dodge three other top ten teams in conference (#3 Penn State, #7 Oregon, #10 Michigan). That's the real reason we have such a golden opportunity this year.

The next toughest games are @ #23 Indiana, #30 USC at home, @ #37 Wisconsin, @ #39 Washington, and @ #41 Duke.

 

[Old.Edgy]

This was before my time and I'm sure it's possible everyone else was doing the slush fund thing, but your example is not the same thing. There's a difference between boosters buying players cars or giving them money, and the slush fund, which consisted of pooled money known to the football and basketball programs, and whose allocations to players were directed by the head football and head basketball coaches and the athletic director. If you can find any other instance where this happened and the NCAA found out but turned a blind eye I would be interested.

How widespread it was (maybe still is in some areas) is up to debate.. To be sure, it was devastating for us. BTW: it was the B1G who disciplined Illinois, NOT the NCAA.

 

[Old.Edgy]

This is my take on the slush fund situation. To describe Coach Elliot as "one of the fathers" connotes that he was one of the creators of the fund. I don't believe that was the case. He simply went along with what was a "standard" practice with most college football programs at that time. Many/most were guilty of much greater infractions and excesses than Illinois. For example:

As a prominent defensive end for Michigan State University from 1964 to 1966, Bubba Smith was known for cruising the campus in his Cadillac, which was affectionately called the "BubbaMobile" or "BubbaCar". This car became part of his larger-than-life persona on campus.

The Big 10 power clique was out to get Illinois to "suppress our success" and make an example that would make the conference look more competitively clean as compared to the SEC and Big 8. It was all a sham.

I don't believe I 'connoted' that he was a 'creator'.... I do believe you are correct in that he just 'went along'.... But if you 'go along' then you condone the practice by continuing it - thereby becoming a father (maybe a step-father) to it... JMHO... All that is moot at this point anyway, as my main point is: We've made some really, really bad decisions in our athletic department over the decades, but NOW I believe we're on the right course, and finally have the right coach ! ! ! Go Illini !

 

[lstewart53x3]

I remembered our preseason SP+ ranking being higher (as of spring, #19), so the same idea with the different model states that we're scheduled to face just one team rated higher than us, Ohio State. Of course they happen to be #1 by that metric, but we dodge three other top ten teams in conference (#3 Penn State, #7 Oregon, #10 Michigan). That's the real reason we have such a golden opportunity this year.

The next toughest games are @ #23 Indiana, #30 USC at home, @ #37 Wisconsin, @ #39 Washington, and @ #41 Duke.

Whatever model has us the highest will become my new favorite model for the year

 

[joeybcrazy13]

I require OSU as tribute and I want the blood of Alabama!!!

 

[Brosky]

Many people confuse Ray Eliot - who retired in '59 - and Pete Elliot (not related) who coached Dick Butkus and the Rose Bowl team... Unfortunately he was also one of the fathers of the slush fund that landed us with Valek, Blackman, and Moeller, before we could get White on board... We've made some really bad, bad decisions in our football hires over the generations, but I actually feel good that we have finally found a really, really good long-term winner...

Pete Elliot was a graduate of my high school (Bloomington High School) as was his super star brother Bump. A few years later I was on the team only as a cannon fodder practice player. One time, Coach put me in to return a kick off. Naturally, I fumbled it.

 

[Brosky]

There was a third Elliot brother whose name was Jim. He too was an outstanding player, but he was a lineman. Not much press compared to his older brothers who made a habit of scoring touchdowns. Jim was the biggest of the three and an all-conference tackle. Bump was a Michigan running back who received all-american honors as a Wolverine.

 

[Dan]

Please continue the discussion in the AP Poll thread-

Illinois #12 in Preseason AP Poll

Will be released around 11:00am CT

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