Great info. Thanks!
And yes we've talked about this on several occasions with Mr Tibbs usually leading it--the Chicagoland potential is enormous for our Illini. But, and its a big one, we have to win a lot for many years in order to start reaching that potential.
As a Chicagoan (and more importantly a non-alum fan in Chicago!), I certainly agree. However, even WITHOUT Chicagoland at all, we are punching around the same level as other states, and for some reason that perception is totally the opposite, even among Illinoisans! Warning for a
long post incoming...
Using 2020 Census data:
IL Population: 12,812,508
Cook County: 5,275,541 (2,746,388 in Chicago and 2,529,153 in Cook Suburbs)
Traditional Collar Counties: 2,343,574
--->
"Strict" In-State Chicago MSA: 7,619,115
Outer Suburban Counties: 958,620
--->
"Broader" In-State Chicago MSA: 8,577,735
So if you assume residents of an "outer suburban" area like Kendall County are sort of a midway between "true" Chicagoland and Downstate, you would only remove the "Strict" Chicago MSA, and this would be Downstate's population:
Calculated "Downstate" IL #1 Population: 5,193,393
If you used the much broader definition of the in-state Chicago MSA, you would be left with this for your "Downstate" total population:
Calculated "Downstate" IL #2 Population: 4,234,773
Compare that to the following other states that probably have a perceived higher interest in college sports and/or more loyalty to their "home team(s)," at least prior to our recent resurgence:
Illinois: 12,812,508
Indiana: 6,785,528
Missouri: 6,154,913
Wisconsin: 5,893,718
Downstate Illinois #2: 5,193,393
Kentucky: 4,505,836
Downstate Illinois #2: 4,234,773
Iowa: 3,190,369
Nebraska: 1,961,504
So this is obviously an absurdly conservative exercise given Illinois has like 225,000 alumni in the Chicago Area, lol ... but if we just assumed ZERO support for Illinois in the entire Chicago MSA, you still have a population of 4.2 million to 5.2 million that are theoretically going to be as attainable as other "more typical" college sports states. People will always try to act like Illinois has this inherent obstacle of being a "pro sports state," but that is insanely dumb, IMO ... guess what?? People in Indy might care about college sports more than people in Chicago, but they still care less than in rural Indiana. Same for Milwaukee, St. Louis, Kansas City, etc.
People also might try to come up with the excuse that areas like Metro East, the Quad Cities, Southern Illinois, etc. have "eroded" Illini support because of support for out-of-state teams, but that is hardly unique to us:
Indiana: Over 260,000 IN residents that are a part of the Louisville MSA in Southern IN and an additional 86,000 that are part of the Cincinnati MSA in the southeast corner of the state. Also a ton of general support for Kentucky and Louisville in rural Southern IN and for Ohio State along the whole east border of the state.
Missouri: Nearly 1.3 million MO residents that are part of the Kansas City MSA (20%+ of the state's total population), with heavy support for KU and KSU throughout the metro (regardless of side). Also significant Arkansas fandom in rural Southern MO.
Kentucky: Over 480,000 KY residents that are a part of the Cincinnati MSA, with very significant OSU fandom bleeding over the border (at least for football).
Iowa: Over 120,000 IA residents that are a part of the Omaha MSA, with the support for Nebraska extending far beyond just those specific counties and scattered throughout Western Iowa in general (trust me!).
And what about other instate competition for fans?? People love to talk about how many Illinoisans are transplants (specifically in Chicagoland) or cheer for an out-of-state team (in Chicagoland, namely Notre Dame), but this problem is not THAT pronounced in Downstate Illinois. Compare that to the following fandom splits these teams have to deal with compared to ours, and we aren't dealing with anything special:
Indiana: Indiana shares the fan pool with Notre Dame and Purdue instate, plus Louisville, Kentucky and Ohio State from border MSAs.
Missouri: Mizzou has no real competition instate but shares the Kansas City fan pool with Kansas and KSU, plus significant parts of Southern MO with Arkansas.
Kentucky: Kentucky shares the fan pool with Louisville instate (including UL being the more popular team in the state's largest MSA, which accounts for about 25% of the state's population), plus Ohio State from border MSAs.
Iowa: Iowa shares the fan pool with Iowa State instate, plus Nebraska from border MSAs.
Downstate Illinois: Illinois has no real competition in(Down)state but shares the St. Louis/Metro East fan pool with Missouri, shares the Quad Cities fan pool with Iowa and suffers from some support for Wisconsin in rural Northern IL and Kentucky in rural Southern IL.
TL;DR
Even if you pretend there is not one Illini fan in all of Chicagoland, we have the "built-in" fan infrastructure to have attendance numbers and TV ratings consistently comparable to Iowa at the very least, and we should be blowing a program like Purdue or even Kentucky/Louisville out of the water ... and this takes into account ALL of the conjured up excuses about obstacles to our fan support in Downstate Illinois, specifically.
If you even sprinkle in a D+ level of fan support from Chicagoland, you are now talking about a program that should have attendance and TV ratings (and general "brand status" or whatever) at least comparable to that of Wisconsin. And that is our VERY realistic ceiling, IMO, and we are hopefully on our way to getting back there.
