Pregame: Illinois at Duke, Saturday, September 6th, 11:00am CT, ESPN
- Status
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Actually, put me in the NOT nervous camp. It's not that I don't expect a tough game or that I don't think the first road test is always a challenge ... it's just that I'm not NERVOUS. I was nervous in 2022 when we got ranked and had a good record because we'd been bad for so long. I was nervous in 2023 when we finally looked to be turning it around because I expected that classic regression season, per usual. I was nervous last year because the thought of another late season regression taking us right back to 5-7 territory was such a hypothetical bummer.
The Citrus Bowl changed everything. We are a good program with a good coach and (finally!!) good fan support. I look at this like when our 2021/2022/2024 basketball teams would go on the road to play a lower-ranked opponent. Pregame jitters?? Sure. Totally aware that a loss is more than possible? Of course. Nervous? Nah. Because I had faith in the program/players/staff at a fundamental level. I have that for football now, and it feels so good!!
We very well might lose to Duke, but I am confident that it wouldn't cause this epic collapse into futility like under some past regimes. If we do go down tomorrow, I think the following will both be true:
1) We will have lost in a dog fight, and we will not have just given up or gotten blown out.
2) We will respond positively, and we'll still make a great season out of this.
With that said, I think we win. I think these guys have the PERFECT combination of being both confident and still hungry for more respect. They'll come out with a chip on their shoulders, even as favorites and punch these guys in the mouth!!
On that note, if we are still "riding high," I will once again predict that we paint West Lafayette orange on October 4!! Purdue will almost certainly be 2-2 by then and likely coming off of a humiliating loss at Notre Dame the week before. They drew a surprisingly impressive 54,000 for their home opener, but that could dip once they start losing AND it still leaves 7,000 open seats for Illini fans to scoop up.
The Citrus Bowl changed everything. We are a good program with a good coach and (finally!!) good fan support. I look at this like when our 2021/2022/2024 basketball teams would go on the road to play a lower-ranked opponent. Pregame jitters?? Sure. Totally aware that a loss is more than possible? Of course. Nervous? Nah. Because I had faith in the program/players/staff at a fundamental level. I have that for football now, and it feels so good!!
We very well might lose to Duke, but I am confident that it wouldn't cause this epic collapse into futility like under some past regimes. If we do go down tomorrow, I think the following will both be true:
1) We will have lost in a dog fight, and we will not have just given up or gotten blown out.
2) We will respond positively, and we'll still make a great season out of this.
With that said, I think we win. I think these guys have the PERFECT combination of being both confident and still hungry for more respect. They'll come out with a chip on their shoulders, even as favorites and punch these guys in the mouth!!
This would be awesome if true, and I think it could really pump our guys up. Not to be overly dramatic, but it could be a pretty powerful metaphorical statement to the team that not only are they (clearly) a good football team, but they now have the "big-time" fan base that they deserve! Honestly, I cannot even remember the last time Illini fans were an actually impressive on the road for a non-Evanston game. Compare that to basketball, where we have flooded neutral sites in Vegas, New York, Milwaukee, Indy, etc. and regularly filled rival arenas like Iowa with tons of orange. It would be great to transfer that reputation and energy over to the football side!
On that note, if we are still "riding high," I will once again predict that we paint West Lafayette orange on October 4!! Purdue will almost certainly be 2-2 by then and likely coming off of a humiliating loss at Notre Dame the week before. They drew a surprisingly impressive 54,000 for their home opener, but that could dip once they start losing AND it still leaves 7,000 open seats for Illini fans to scoop up.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
Yeah. Well. Why you gotta bring that up?!the SJSU program we lost to 25 years ago
smh
2002 was a really frustrating season. Will never forget the thrill of the Illini comeback and hanging in that OSU game into OT at home. (And, no, Walter Young was, alas, not in bounds when he caught that ball in the north EZ. For years I thought he had been in and then saw footage that showed his foot was out. Darn it.)
But man, had I known what an absolute dumpster fire 2003 would be. I would have savored that 2002 mediocrity. Another thing I won't forget all those years ago is being at a wedding in NYC in early Oct 2003 and watching, in the bar, SportsCenter highlights of the 43-10 drubbing we took in West Lafayette to go to 1-5 (with our only win versus Illinois St.) The announcer after footage of a Purdue TD with around 4-5 missed Illini tackles: "It just looks like Illinois has given up."
"Given up." The first weekend in October. I wince thinking about it even now. We didn't have a subsequent loss of less than 26 points until we fell to bottom-dwelling IU by a FG in the 11th game.
All of which makes the anticipation I have for sitting in Wallace Wade Stadium tomorrow for kickoff, and then in Bloomington in two weekends, as sweet as it gets.
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I believe the Illini have only one loss to an unranked team by more than a touchdown over the past 3 seasons (at Purdue). Bielema has established competence.
This is likely a little out of left field (and likely showing my age), but when I think of Duke’s defense I think of Mike Tyson’s punchout.
Most of the boxers have a gimmick that can really throw you off, but once you understand timing/when to throw your punch, King Hippo or Bald Bull are no big deal.
I trust Lunney to come up with a game plan and misdirection, Luke is experienced enough to not get rattled, and I think our experienced O Line will hold up enough that we mostly solve Duke’s defense. Plus, I think I think our 12 and 13 personnel is a good match up because it creates extra gaps the defense has to account for.
And I think their QB is the real deal and may very well throw for 300 yards against us. But I think we have enough game wreckers up front and in the secondary to make enough plays (sacks, pressures, pbus and/or ints) to make the difference.
I think we take this one 31-24.
Most of the boxers have a gimmick that can really throw you off, but once you understand timing/when to throw your punch, King Hippo or Bald Bull are no big deal.
I trust Lunney to come up with a game plan and misdirection, Luke is experienced enough to not get rattled, and I think our experienced O Line will hold up enough that we mostly solve Duke’s defense. Plus, I think I think our 12 and 13 personnel is a good match up because it creates extra gaps the defense has to account for.
And I think their QB is the real deal and may very well throw for 300 yards against us. But I think we have enough game wreckers up front and in the secondary to make enough plays (sacks, pressures, pbus and/or ints) to make the difference.
I think we take this one 31-24.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
When I think of Duke, generally, I think of the union of Mike Tyson's jaws and Evander Holyfield's ear (i.e., unseemly in all respects, but possessing a lurid magnetic appeal that requires me not to look away.)
(Still remember having just moved to Calgary for two years and having drinks that evening with my predecessor and his wife in a downtown bar. The fight was on above the bar, we watched it off and on for the first rounds and then suddenly it was all: "Did that just freaking happen in a heavyweight title bout??!!")
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I remember that game vividly. A lot of mouth breathers from O$U in attendance.
In overtime, it was the South end zone. Young was out of bounds on 2nd down and then on 3rd down the refs said Young juggled the ball. That was the bad call in my mind.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
Yeah... he was in as he juggled it and out when he got hold of it firmly.
So are you implying that my memory is unreliable and, accordingly, the 2003 season might never have occurred and we went 10-2?! Yes? Please?
Otw to Durham.. LFG Illini
Score prediction: 27-17 good guys
Score prediction: 27-17 good guys
Bill Connelly previews Illinois-Duke in his Week 2 preview, calls it the most interesting game in the noon window (Michigan-Oklahoma is the headliner at 7:30pm):
www.espn.com
College football Week 2 preview: Michigan-Oklahoma, Kansas-Missouri and more
In Week 2, we get a unique helmet game and the Group of 5's biggest weekend.
While true they are one of the worst FBS teams, they're somehow middle of the pack in the MAC (the MAC is bad this year as FBS goes). There are 5 MAC teams rated worse than they are (Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Akron, Ball State, Massachusetts).
They are rated worse than the best D2 team (Ferris State), so that's...not ideal. (seriously, though, Connelly's "Top 767" ratings are great)
ILL.... Do it like 1864 and burn it to the ground...INI!!!
I was thinking about this very thing this morning. Was feeling nervous about the game when I woke up. But I began challenging myself on that - should I be nervous about this team playing this game tomorrow? What would a Wisconsin fan in, say, 2010 be feeling heading into this road game tomorrow - would they be nervous? Because we're basically in the same spot as that Wisconsin team. Granted, Wisconsin fans would have had a longer track record of being a very good program, but I think they wouldn't have been nervous about a game like tomorrow. Aware that a loss was possible, sure, but confident that their team would show up and perform. That is now the mindset I'm bringing to this game.Actually, put me in the NOT nervous camp. It's not that I don't expect a tough game or that I don't think the first road test is always a challenge ... it's just that I'm not NERVOUS. I was nervous in 2022 when we got ranked and had a good record because we'd been bad for so long. I was nervous in 2023 when we finally looked to be turning it around because I expected that classic regression season, per usual. I was nervous last year because the thought of another late season regression taking us right back to 5-7 territory was such a hypothetical bummer.
The Citrus Bowl changed everything. We are a good program with a good coach and (finally!!) good fan support. I look at this like when our 2021/2022/2024 basketball teams would go on the road to play a lower-ranked opponent. Pregame jitters?? Sure. Totally aware that a loss is more than possible? Of course. Nervous? Nah. Because I had faith in the program/players/staff at a fundamental level. I have that for football now, and it feels so good!!
We very well might lose to Duke, but I am confident that it wouldn't cause this epic collapse into futility like under some past regimes. If we do go down tomorrow, I think the following will both be true:
1) We will have lost in a dog fight, and we will not have just given up or gotten blown out.
2) We will respond positively, and we'll still make a great season out of this.
With that said, I think we win. I think these guys have the PERFECT combination of being both confident and still hungry for more respect. They'll come out with a chip on their shoulders, even as favorites and punch these guys in the mouth!!
This would be awesome if true, and I think it could really pump our guys up. Not to be overly dramatic, but it could be a pretty powerful metaphorical statement to the team that not only are they (clearly) a good football team, but they now have the "big-time" fan base that they deserve! Honestly, I cannot even remember the last time Illini fans were an actually impressive on the road for a non-Evanston game. Compare that to basketball, where we have flooded neutral sites in Vegas, New York, Milwaukee, Indy, etc. and regularly filled rival arenas like Iowa with tons of orange. It would be great to transfer that reputation and energy over to the football side!
On that note, if we are still "riding high," I will once again predict that we paint West Lafayette orange on October 4!! Purdue will almost certainly be 2-2 by then and likely coming off of a humiliating loss at Notre Dame the week before. They drew a surprisingly impressive 54,000 for their home opener, but that could dip once they start losing AND it still leaves 7,000 open seats for Illini fans to scoop up.
On that 2010 Wisconsin comp...the similarities are pretty striking:
- both teams were in year 5 of their respective Bret Bielema tenures
- both teams went 10-3 the season prior
- both teams won their Orlando bowl game the season prior
- both teams began the year ranked #12 in the AP poll
- both teams had #1 Ohio State at home on their schedule (....and Wisconsin beat them...)
Wisconsin went 11-1, beating #1 Ohio State as noted above, and lost to TCU 21-19 in the Rose Bowl that season. Yeah, I'm not nervous about tomorrow anymore.
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yep, and even counting his 2021 debut season where he inherited Lovie's mess, these are the only games where we have lost by two touchdowns or more at all:
2021: 5-7 Record
W3 - L 42-14 at Virginia
W7 - L 24-0 vs. Wisconsin
2022: 8-5 Record
----------
2023: 5-7 Record
W3 - L 30-13 vs. #7 Penn State
W5 - L 44-19 at Purdue
2024: 10-3 Record
W5 - L 21-7 at #9 Penn State
W9 - L 38-9 at #1 Oregon
So to sump up...
- There were 3 absolute blowouts - 2021 Virginia, 2021 Wisconsin and 2024 Oregon. The first one was our very first road trip with Bret as head coach, obviously before he could really have a chance to turn the program around. The Wisconsin Homecoming loss was also in his first season and proved to be kind of an odd fluke and/or wakeup call, as we upset a top 10 PSU team the next game. The Oregon one was a game where we were straight-up punched in the mouth, but it was against #1 on the road ... a tall task!
- There were 2 more, both in the somewhat odd rebuilding year that was 2023, where we were playing a team close and let the wheels fall off late. For PSU, we were down 8 vs. a top 10 team with only 4 minutes left in the third quarter ... and that was after a ton of self-inflicted wounds. I attended that one, and it REALLY felt like we were giving ourselves a chance until relatively late (I remember fans actually feeling energized going into halftime). For the Purdue game, we were only down 3 points midway through the third quarter before we suddenly collapsed. FWIW, after this game and the following loss to Nebraska, a switch really went off for this team. We upset Maryland on the road, and our only losses for the rest of the year were last second ones, including two losses by just 2 points at #16 Iowa and vs. Northwestern.
- The last one (2024 PSU) is only on here by technicality. We went into a "Whiteout Energy" atmosphere vs. a top 10 team on the road, and we held our own. PSU did hold a lead until 6:16 left in the third quarter, and we had the ball down just 7 with under 6 minutes to go in the game. Luke's last interception allow PSU to score a garbage time TD with just 1:55 to go. That was a close game.
Bottom line? You're 100% right. Anything can happen, I guess, but you can pretty much always count on Bret having these guys ready to play.
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
I really hope to see a large contingent of Orange and Blue showing out tomorrow at Wallace Wade. Someone posted the other day on here that we have a large Illinois alum base in the research triangle. Obviously, alot of great seats being available for cheap helps but I'd love to know how many fans end up making the trip.Actually, put me in the NOT nervous camp. It's not that I don't expect a tough game or that I don't think the first road test is always a challenge ... it's just that I'm not NERVOUS. I was nervous in 2022 when we got ranked and had a good record because we'd been bad for so long. I was nervous in 2023 when we finally looked to be turning it around because I expected that classic regression season, per usual. I was nervous last year because the thought of another late season regression taking us right back to 5-7 territory was such a hypothetical bummer.
The Citrus Bowl changed everything. We are a good program with a good coach and (finally!!) good fan support. I look at this like when our 2021/2022/2024 basketball teams would go on the road to play a lower-ranked opponent. Pregame jitters?? Sure. Totally aware that a loss is more than possible? Of course. Nervous? Nah. Because I had faith in the program/players/staff at a fundamental level. I have that for football now, and it feels so good!!
We very well might lose to Duke, but I am confident that it wouldn't cause this epic collapse into futility like under some past regimes. If we do go down tomorrow, I think the following will both be true:
1) We will have lost in a dog fight, and we will not have just given up or gotten blown out.
2) We will respond positively, and we'll still make a great season out of this.
With that said, I think we win. I think these guys have the PERFECT combination of being both confident and still hungry for more respect. They'll come out with a chip on their shoulders, even as favorites and punch these guys in the mouth!!
This would be awesome if true, and I think it could really pump our guys up. Not to be overly dramatic, but it could be a pretty powerful metaphorical statement to the team that not only are they (clearly) a good football team, but they now have the "big-time" fan base that they deserve! Honestly, I cannot even remember the last time Illini fans were an actually impressive on the road for a non-Evanston game. Compare that to basketball, where we have flooded neutral sites in Vegas, New York, Milwaukee, Indy, etc. and regularly filled rival arenas like Iowa with tons of orange. It would be great to transfer that reputation and energy over to the football side!
On that note, if we are still "riding high," I will once again predict that we paint West Lafayette orange on October 4!! Purdue will almost certainly be 2-2 by then and likely coming off of a humiliating loss at Notre Dame the week before. They drew a surprisingly impressive 54,000 for their home opener, but that could dip once they start losing AND it still leaves 7,000 open seats for Illini fans to scoop up.
Feels like the next progression for our program moving forward is a fan base that travels.
Section 8; Row B - looks like Section 8 is sold out minus 2 tickets near the back
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Just one more note RE: the frequent talking point (by other teams' fans, analysts and even our own fans) that we are "due" to start losing some close games that we were able to win (essentially/allegedly by luck) last year. I'll admit this is subjective and I have done this before, but here are the games since Bret got here that I think you could argue were TRUE toss-ups in the final minutes. This won't be classified strictly by score, as a game like Bret's tenure-opening, 8-point win vs. Nebraska was not a true nail biter. Additionally, a game like our 37-30 loss to UTSA in 2021 (where we had a chance at a game-tying TD from the 15 late in the game) is excluded, as we needed a comeback to even make it a one-score game. These are games where you could argue the team that won "got lucky," and it easily could have gone the other way. Needless to say, any game like 2022 Indiana, 2022 Michigan, 2023 Wisconsin, etc. where a VERY clearly unlucky call or two fundamentally changed a close game is getting on the list easily.
2021
L 17-20 vs. Maryland
L 9-13 at Purdue
W 20-18 at #7 Penn State (9OT)
L 14-20 vs. Rutgers
2022
L 20-23 at Indiana
W 9-6 vs. Iowa
L 24-31 vs. Purdue
L 17-19 at #3 Michigan
2023
W 30-28 vs. Toledo
L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin
W 27-26 at Minnesota
W 48-45 vs. Indiana in OT
L 13-15 at #16 Iowa
L 43-45 vs. Northwestern
2024
W 31-24 at Nebraska (OT)
W 50-49 vs. Purdue (OT)
W 38-31 at Rutgers
W 21-17 vs. #15 South Carolina (Citrus Bowl)
So in Bielema's first two years, we went 2-6 in such games ... and losses at Indiana, vs. Purdue and at Michigan (all in 2022!) were especially controversial, with Indiana being the worst in that we lost by 3 and had both a made FG and clear TD taken away. In 2023, we split those games 3-3, bringing the overall record to 5-9. In 2024, we finally had some good luck and improved the overall record to ... 9-9. Surprise!
Last year was evening out previous bad luck. Should we expect constant fourth quarter magic? No, but it's not like we weren't incredibly UNlucky before that.
2021
L 17-20 vs. Maryland
L 9-13 at Purdue
W 20-18 at #7 Penn State (9OT)
L 14-20 vs. Rutgers
2022
L 20-23 at Indiana
W 9-6 vs. Iowa
L 24-31 vs. Purdue
L 17-19 at #3 Michigan
2023
W 30-28 vs. Toledo
L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin
W 27-26 at Minnesota
W 48-45 vs. Indiana in OT
L 13-15 at #16 Iowa
L 43-45 vs. Northwestern
2024
W 31-24 at Nebraska (OT)
W 50-49 vs. Purdue (OT)
W 38-31 at Rutgers
W 21-17 vs. #15 South Carolina (Citrus Bowl)
So in Bielema's first two years, we went 2-6 in such games ... and losses at Indiana, vs. Purdue and at Michigan (all in 2022!) were especially controversial, with Indiana being the worst in that we lost by 3 and had both a made FG and clear TD taken away. In 2023, we split those games 3-3, bringing the overall record to 5-9. In 2024, we finally had some good luck and improved the overall record to ... 9-9. Surprise!
Last year was evening out previous bad luck. Should we expect constant fourth quarter magic? No, but it's not like we weren't incredibly UNlucky before that.
PizzaHutParkingLot
- Vodice, Croatia
So what you’re saying is…
Jacas = J.J. Watt
Feagin, Laughery, Valentine = White, Clay, Ball
Bowick = Toon
Beaty = Abbrederis
Henry = Henry
Fenelus = Fenelus
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
One quick follow-up to this on some games I excluded, FTR.
2021
W 30-22 vs. Nebraska ... We were up 30-16 halfway through the fourth quarter and generally seemed in control of the game, if you ask me.
W 14-6 at #20 Minnesota ... While technically a one-score game, we led 14-0 from the second quarter until there were just 5 minutes left in the game and Minnesota scored a late TD (and missed the PAT).
2022
L 15-23 vs. Michigan State ... This was also technically a one-score game and definitely involved a lot of controversy, but we (A) were down 23-7 going into the fourth quarter and (B) just CLEARLY didn't show up to play that day and didn't deserve to win.
L 10-19 vs. #22 Mississippi State (ReliaQuest Bowl) ... This is only a two-score game by technicality, as they returned our fumble for a late TD and only gained the lead with seconds left on the clock. However, other than one FG in the third quarter, our offense did nothing but punt or fumble after our first TD, and Mississippi State actually missed a FG that could have allowed them to run out the clock rather than score late.
2023
W 23-17 vs. FAU ... While we only won by 6, we were up 23-10 until 4 minutes to go in the game and rather easily ran out the clock for the W to end the game.
2024
W 23-17 vs. #19 Kansas ... Maybe this is my most controversial omission, but I think we outplayed them and looked like we were going to win once we had the lead. Our defense held KU's offense to two punts, an interception and a fumble to end the game, while we scored twice in that timeframe and ate up a ton of time along the way.
L 17-25 vs. Minnesota ... While this was a one-score game where we had a chance to tie it late, we sort of collapsed after Minnesota's TD with 5:14 to go that gave them a 22-17 lead. Our big response drive was a 4-and-out that involved a 4-yard run, an incomplete pass, a 2-yard run and another incomplete pass for a turnover, lol. Then, when Minnesota was held to a FG and we had a final chance, we fumbled it away ... so no bad luck involved.
L 7-21 at #9 Penn State ... I touched on this in a previous post, but this was a ONE-score game with about 4 minutes left in the game, and we had the ball near midfield. The 14-point margin was entirely due to a late turnover and garbage time TD. With that said, we didn't show much teeth on offense after our initial TD to take a 7-0 lead, so our loss certainly wasn't "unlucky."
And you will notice that if I added those to the total, our 9-9 record in "lucky games" changes to ... 13-13. Point stands!
I prefer the fat 'I'.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
Section 7, Row L. Be loud, be proud!
- Status