Pregame: Illinois at Duke, Saturday, September 6th, 11:00am CT, ESPN

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#228      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Go in and win this game, there's little reason to believe we can't do the same @IU. I'd personally have the likelihood of splitting and starting 3-1 as least likely: below 4-0 and also 2-2 for that matter.
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Don't overlook central Michigan. Very much like the Toledo team two years ago. Would be a massive prove it game if we lose to Duke.
 
#231      
lstewart53x3
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Don't overlook central Michigan. Very much like the Toledo team two years ago. Would be a massive prove it game if we lose to Duke.
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You don’t want to overlook any opponent, but WMU is one of the worst teams in D1 college football. SP+ has them ranked 120 (out of 136 teams). Toledo in 2023 won the MAC with an 8-0 conference record and an 11-3 record overall.
 
#236      
gary?
lstewart53x3 said:
. . .WMU is one of the worst teams in D1 college football. SP+ has them ranked 120 (out of 136 teams). . .
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wow, what the hell happened there? i know niu aren't what they used to be, but i don't think they ever fell that far since novak resurrected that program.
 
#241      
Brosky
This game really scares me. I've been an Illini football fan far too long to expect sustained success. We won 10 games last year but several of those went down to the wire; we could have lost those easily. I can only cross my fingers and hope this year will be different.
 
#243      
bleedorange and blue
Serious Late said:
A guy I respect who bets college football very well shared his power ratings for this week and his numbers have Illinois 7 points better than Duke on a neutral field. Makes the 2.5 on Fanduel enticing, particularly given Duke's "home field advantage". Giving them 3 points (for home field advantage) feels generous.

I've been talking with him in the lead up to the season, as he has not been overly high on Illinois this year, he has us #29 in in the country based on his model. I asked him about the discrepancy in power ratings between us and Duke, and his response was simple. "Duke stinks."

I'm feeling better about this game. 😁

This is also my annual reminder that no, lines are not made up to generate 50% action on either side. If the public bets 1 million on Duke at +3, moving the line to +2.5, and a group of respected bettors bet $10K on Illinois at -2.5... that number is going to move back to 3. The respected 1% of action will influence a number more than the 99% of public action. Carry on!
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If duke is only 2.5 points better on a neutral field wouldn't they be ranked about where Indiana is?????
 
#244      
Greensboro
skyIdub said:
Hahahah...there's still some sore butts in his office!
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honestly just looks like more of a hack than a homer that just shouldn't be voting. Greenville is Clemson country, but he has Clemson1 spot below AP ranking & SC3 spots below SC ranking. OSU beats Texas & he has OSU the lowest (4th) of anyone in the AP Poll & Texas at 5? Alabama he has at 12 with FSU at 10. Then finishes the last 3 spots with JMU/Liberty/Navy...Looks like all 3 of them had one other vote besides his (maybe his mom votes as well)
 
#246      
Illini2010-11
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Don't overlook central Michigan. Very much like the Toledo team two years ago. Would be a massive prove it game if we lose to Duke.
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For starters, we don't play CMU. Secondly, both CMU and WMU (who we play) have not been good recently. For CMU, I think I heard it was their first road win in since 2022 last week. Neither of those two teams are anywhere near the same caliber as Toledo (who was the top of the MAC). In any event, Coach B will have this team coached well, so I am not worried about the team overlooking WMU. If anything, I expect the team to take anger out on them if we happen to lose tomorrow morning.
 
#248      
altgeld88
altgeld88 said:
Meh. I'm good with it being a home game for us. Am confident that the east side of the bowl will be festooned in orange-clad partisans like me.
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Further to this, I bought three tickets in late May via the Duke athletics site. Dead-on 50 yard line, a third of the way up the bowl. The best possible seats you can get. And I paid $62 each all-in.

That's insane for a program that has a team in the top 50 of FBS, three large population centers (Raleigh-Durham; Greensboro/Winston-Salem, Charlotte) within spitting distance of the campus, and is hosting an Illini team that everyone projected in the spring would be a Top 15 team this season and a CFP contender.

Dookies apparently don't care about football, nor do the Dookie-adjacent.
 
#249      
Serious Late
bleedorange and blue said:
If duke is only 2.5 points better on a neutral field wouldn't they be ranked about where Indiana is?????
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Illinois is 7 pts better than Duke on a neutral field (per one set of numbers). The 2.5 is what you can currently get Illinois at vs. Duke.
 
#250      
Ander1345
Illini2010-11 said:
For starters, we don't play CMU. Secondly, both CMU and WMU (who we play) have not been good recently. For CMU, I think I heard it was their first road win in since 2022 last week. Neither of those two teams are anywhere near the same caliber as Toledo (who was the top of the MAC). In any event, Coach B will have this team coached well, so I am not worried about the team overlooking WMU. If anything, I expect the team to take anger out on them if we happen to lose tomorrow morning.
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The life of a MAC school. CMU new HC was Army's OL coach last year. Promising results so far they looked tough up front and probably should have won by a much larger margin against SJSU.
 
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