Illini Football 2025

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#126      
mhuml32
It's only two games but noticeable offensive gameplan shift from previous years.

Altmyer Yards Per Completion:
2023: 10.8
2024: 12.9
2025: 13.2
Not a big difference, right? But look at the breakdown by attempt

Altmyer Adjusted Pass Yards Per Attempt:
2023: 6.27
2024: 8.32
2025: 12.17
This is a massive jump. Right now Illinois is 8th in the country for passing yards per attempt.


It's probably not sustainable and some regression is coming (Luke is also completing 75% of his passes, even with the crummy first half against Duke), but this could be the positive sign for the WR corps.
 
#127      
lstewart53x3
We don’t have a WR1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965207161363202106

IMG_4877.jpeg
 
#128      
Fighter of the Nightman
If anyone wants to try to go down the rabbit hole of charting out the order of picks for each network, we got a LITTLE more data today. A reminder that FOX gets first pick for 8 weekends, and NBC/CBS get 3 each. It was confirmed in an article that FOX had first pick for Week 1 and Week 14, whereas NBC had first pick for Week 5. Some have guessed CBS had first pick for Week 4 given the early announcement of Nebraska/Michigan, but this was never 100% confirmed. The rest is pure speculation, but if people really feel they can start checking some weekends off ... it makes guessing the game times later in the season much easier!

WEEK ONE - Saturday 8/30
11:00 am on FOX - #1 Texas at #3 Ohio State (confirmed #1 pick this week)
2:30 pm on CBS - Nevada at #2 Penn State
6:30 pm on NBC - New Mexico at #14 Michigan

WEEK TWO - Saturday 9/6
11:00 am on FOX - Iowa at #16 Iowa State
2:30 pm on CBS - Oklahoma State at #6 Oregon
6:30 pm on NBC - Boston College at Michigan State

WEEK THREE - Saturday 9/13
11:00 am on FOX - #4 Oregon at Northwestern
2:30 pm on CBS - USC at Purdue
6:30 pm on NBC - [Non-Big Ten - #16 Texas A&M at #8 Notre Dame)

WEEK FOUR - Saturday 9/20
11:00 am on FOX - [Non-Big Ten - #21 Texas Tech at #20 Utah]
2:30 pm on CBS - #23 Michigan at Nebraska (suspected #1 pick this week)
6:30 pm on NBC - #9 Illinois at #22 Indiana

--- Only select game times announced past this point ---

WEEK 5 - Saturday 9/27
6:30 pm on NBC - #4 Oregon at #2 Penn State (confirmed #1 pick this week)

WEEK 14 - Saturday 11/29
11:00 am on FOX - #1 Ohio State at #23 Michigan (confirmed #1 pick this week)

We know FOX had first pick for Week 1 and Week 14, and I also think the article confirmed that these weren't just two of FOX's 8 first picks but also two of their guaranteed top three. In other words, of the three remaining top five picks, 2/3 will not be FOX.

We know NBC had first pick for Week 5, so that leaves them with two left. I'll also guess that NBC had third pick for Week Two, picking BC/MSU.

Many speculate CBS had first pick for Week 4, so that also leaves them with two left. I would also wager that NBC had second pick for this weekend, or I think FOX would have scooped up Illinois/Indiana for Big Noon ... guessing FOX was left with third pick and opted for a Big XII game, but that's just a guess.

The true madness is trying to figure out who has second and third picks each weekend, lol...
 
#129      
Mobi
Battle89 said:
A 96% chance of 7-5 (unless this includes potential bowl games which would allow for 7-6, but I think this is just regular season).

How many 2- or 3- (or zero-) win past seasons I would have dreamed about this.
Click to expand...
96% is the cumulative percentage for >= 7 wins. Based on this model, we are more likely to have 8 (26%), 9 (30%), or 10 (19%) wins. Pretty fair in the early season IMO.
 
#130      
Battle89
Mobi said:
96% is the cumulative percentage for >= 7 wins. Based on this model, we are more likely to have 8 (26%), 9 (30%), or 10 (19%) wins. Pretty fair in the early season IMO.
Click to expand...
Thanks and I don't see that we are saying anything differently? Guess I could have added "or better" after my 7-5 but I thought that was implied.
 
#132      
mbelang
BrownTown said:
Does Olin Kreutz go to the Illinois games?

As a fan of the Bears, I always expect to see a cutaway to him during the games. Especially, as a member of the best Bears team in 40 years (not a typo we've had a rough...well my whole lifetime.

I suppose he could have requested not to be used in those situations. Through the teams media department or however that works.

I'm a WIVC area fan and I farm. So Saturdays in the fall are busy, never been to a game😔
Click to expand...
He does. I see him and his family in Lot 31 most games.
 
#133      
Mr. Tibbs
have any true freshmen played yet ?
just wondering if we are still trying to preserve red shirt years for all of them
 
#136      
Second place is 1st loser
Let the season unfold. If Duke goes to Tulane and loses by three scores, it'll make more sense. We don't know how valuable these wins are.....yet. There's a lot of football to go.

Plus, we got bumped +13. The model recognized the road W.
 
#138      
Saturdaze
Fighter of the Nightman said:
If anyone wants to try to go down the rabbit hole of charting out the order of picks for each network, we got a LITTLE more data today. A reminder that FOX gets first pick for 8 weekends, and NBC/CBS get 3 each. It was confirmed in an article that FOX had first pick for Week 1 and Week 14, whereas NBC had first pick for Week 5. Some have guessed CBS had first pick for Week 4 given the early announcement of Nebraska/Michigan, but this was never 100% confirmed. The rest is pure speculation, but if people really feel they can start checking some weekends off ... it makes guessing the game times later in the season much easier!

WEEK ONE - Saturday 8/30
11:00 am on FOX - #1 Texas at #3 Ohio State (confirmed #1 pick this week)
2:30 pm on CBS - Nevada at #2 Penn State
6:30 pm on NBC - New Mexico at #14 Michigan

WEEK TWO - Saturday 9/6
11:00 am on FOX - Iowa at #16 Iowa State
2:30 pm on CBS - Oklahoma State at #6 Oregon
6:30 pm on NBC - Boston College at Michigan State

WEEK THREE - Saturday 9/13
11:00 am on FOX - #4 Oregon at Northwestern
2:30 pm on CBS - USC at Purdue
6:30 pm on NBC - [Non-Big Ten - #16 Texas A&M at #8 Notre Dame)

WEEK FOUR - Saturday 9/20
11:00 am on FOX - [Non-Big Ten - #21 Texas Tech at #20 Utah]
2:30 pm on CBS - #23 Michigan at Nebraska (suspected #1 pick this week)
6:30 pm on NBC - #9 Illinois at #22 Indiana

--- Only select game times announced past this point ---

WEEK 5 - Saturday 9/27
6:30 pm on NBC - #4 Oregon at #2 Penn State (confirmed #1 pick this week)

WEEK 14 - Saturday 11/29
11:00 am on FOX - #1 Ohio State at #23 Michigan (confirmed #1 pick this week)

We know FOX had first pick for Week 1 and Week 14, and I also think the article confirmed that these weren't just two of FOX's 8 first picks but also two of their guaranteed top three. In other words, of the three remaining top five picks, 2/3 will not be FOX.

We know NBC had first pick for Week 5, so that leaves them with two left. I'll also guess that NBC had third pick for Week Two, picking BC/MSU.

Many speculate CBS had first pick for Week 4, so that also leaves them with two left. I would also wager that NBC had second pick for this weekend, or I think FOX would have scooped up Illinois/Indiana for Big Noon ... guessing FOX was left with third pick and opted for a Big XII game, but that's just a guess.

The true madness is trying to figure out who has second and third picks each weekend, lol...
Click to expand...
This is how I think first 11 picks went. I’m not sure if the fourth Fox pick is #8 or #10.

PickNetworkWeek with #1 pick
1FOX14
2FOX1
3FOX10
4NBC5
5CBS7
6NBC13
7CBS4
8FOX9
9NBC6
10CBS11
11FOX8
 
#139      
jrichisamazing
mhuml32 said:
Looking at the remaining schedule and how our priors have shifted through two games

WMU - same as expected
Indiana - same or expected (maybe slightly better)
USC - better than expected
Purdue - don't know
Ohio State - same
Washington - expected
Rutgers - worse than expected
Maryland - same
Wisconsin - same
Northwestern - worse than expected
Click to expand...

This is how KFord sees it right now...

WMU - slightly better
Indiana - slightly better
USC - much better
Purdue - better
OSU - slightly better
Washington - better
Rutgers - slightly better
Maryland - slightly better
Wisconsin - slightly worse
Northwestern - worse

Obviously doesn't mean too much because most teams have only played cupcakes, but still fun to look at.
 
#143      
Fighter of the Nightman
TV ratings for Power Conference vs. Power Conference matchups in Week 2 ... generally way down from Week 1, mostly due to matchups.

9.70M for Michigan at Oklahoma (6:30 pm on ABC)
4.80M for Ole Miss at Kentucky (2:30 pm on ABC)
4.28M for Iowa at Iowa State (11:00 am on FOX)
2.32M for Oklahoma State at Oregon (2:30 pm on CBS)
2.01M for Illinois at Duke (11:00 am on ESPN)
1.81M for Kansas at Missouri (2:30 pm on ESPN2)
1.64M for Boston College at Michigan State (6:30 pm on NBC)
1.09M for Stanford at BYU (9:15 pm on ESPN)
1.00M for Baylor at SMU (11:00 am on The CW)
977k for Arizona State at Mississippi State (6:30 pm on ESPN2)
651k for Virginia at NC State (11:00 am on ESPN2)

... and just for fun, the bottom three least viewed games of the week:

165k for Kennesaw State at Indiana (11:00 am on FS1)
111k for Ball State at Auburn (6:30 pm on ESPNU)
110k for Central Michigan at Pitt (11:00 am on ESPNU)

I'll be interested to see what kind of ratings our Western Michigan game gets in primetime on a lesser channel (BTN). While you can tell SOMETHING from looking at ratings on the bigger channels, I always find it interesting to see the ratings on your BTN and FS1 channels, as they are probably disproportionately getting an audience from the teams' fans rather than casual viewers. A bigger rating than usual would likely be validation that the Illini continue to grow the fan base.

For context, below are the Big Ten games that have been on BTN or FS1 so far this year. Sometimes a mega-draw like OSU can push viewers over 1 million, but it's really rare before conference play starts. Anything over 600k is a very good draw for BTN or FS1 for these types of non-conference matchups.

1.83M for Grambling State at Ohio State (2:30 pm on BTN)
954k for FIU at Penn State OR Northwestern State at Minnesota (11:00 am on BTN)
949k for Akron at Nebraska OR Southern Illinois at Purdue (6:30 pm on BTN)
662k for Albany at Iowa (5:00 pm on FS1)
623k for Western Michigan at Michigan State (Friday 6:00 pm on FS1)
568k for Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin (3:00 pm on FS1)
492k for Miami (OH) at Wisconsin (Thursday 8:00 pm on BTN)
434k for Buffalo at Minnesota (Thursday 7:00 pm on FS1)
353k for Old Dominion at Indiana (1:30 pm on FS1)
348k for Georgia Southern at USC (6:30 pm on FS1)
346k for Montana State at Oregon (3:00 pm on BTN)
320k for Ohio at Rutgers (Thursday 5:00 pm on BTN)
246k for UC Davis at Washington (10:00 pm on BTN)
235k for Missouri State at USC (6:30 pm on BTN)
194k for Ball State at Purdue OR FAU at Maryland (11:00 am on BTN)
179k for Northern Illinois at Maryland OR Western Illinois at Northwestern (Friday 7:30 pm on BTN)
165 for Kennesaw State at Indiana (11:00 am on FS1)
 
#144      
IlliniInBuckeyeState
Here is an updated edition of the Gies Memorial Stadium Sellout Watch.

Rutgers ticket sales continue to be strong and will likely result as a sellout within the next couple weeks. Sales for Maryland and Northwestern look pretty encouraging as well - I estimate both of those games will have announced crowds above 55k. Prior to the season, I told someone on this board that I thought we could get the average attendance to 58k. Assuming Rutgers gets to a sellout and Maryland/Northwestern attendance is respectable, an average above 58k should be achieved.

1757588587697.png
 
#145      
Bbuck21
Regardless of how their "system" came up with this, it is difficult to believe they don't have some editor level person that we speak up and say, "We can't publish this!"
 
#147      
Mistakenj
IMG_0780.jpeg

This was my local Sam’s Club in the NW burbs. Not an iota of Illini gear; just Mildcats gear, WTF?!?!?
 
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