Illini Basketball 2025-2026

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#226      
21ChampaignSt
I'll play.

If we're talking about ceiling and floor in terms of the NCAA tournament, the ceiling is always going to be national champ and the floor is always going to missing the tournament. If you simulated the season 100,000 times, we'd probably win at least 1 Natty and would probably miss the tourney at least 1 time.

It sounds like what the OP is calling floor and ceiling are the upper and lower limits of the interquartile range of a normal distribution. Basically a range of what he believes are the most probable outcomes. And honestly, this is probably the best way of thinking of it - even if I don't necessarily agree with the prediction...or the assertion that those are the only possible outcomes of the season.

This discussion though has me questioning the entire point and application of floors and ceilings. It's so theoretical and impossible to prove.

I motion to start talking about our potential in terms of "to the window" and "to the wall".

If our season goes to the window, we'll still at least make the tournament through talent and coaching alone. But if we go all the way to the wall, we could be looking at a Final Four. We have the 12th most returning minutes of any high major team. But looking just at high major teams that made the tournament last year (teams who return minutes from a good team) we are 5th. Absolutely the profile of a Final Four team.
 
#229      
IlliniFan42
21ChampaignSt said:
I'll play.

If we're talking about ceiling and floor in terms of the NCAA tournament, the ceiling is always going to be national champ and the floor is always going to missing the tournament. If you simulated the season 100,000 times, we'd probably win at least 1 Natty and would probably miss the tourney at least 1 time.

It sounds like what the OP is calling floor and ceiling are the upper and lower limits of the interquartile range of a normal distribution. Basically a range of what he believes are the most probable outcomes. And honestly, this is probably the best way of thinking of it - even if I don't necessarily agree with the prediction...or the assertion that those are the only possible outcomes of the season.

This discussion though has me questioning the entire point and application of floors and ceilings. It's so theoretical and impossible to prove.

I motion to start talking about our potential in terms of "to the window" and "to the wall".

If our season goes to the window, we'll still at least make the tournament through talent and coaching alone. But if we go all the way to the wall, we could be looking at a Final Four. We have the 12th most returning minutes of any high major team. But looking just at high major teams that made the tournament last year (teams who return minutes from a good team) we are 5th. Absolutely the profile of a Final Four team.
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This makes complete sense to me, thank you.
 
#230      
LvilleILL1
This team should absolutely be better than last year.

Going through the lineup:
KJ=Petrovic. KJ has way more upside/NBA talent, but Petrovic will likely be a lot more steady and not turn it over as much
Year 2 Kylan>Year 1
Andrej S> slight edge over Will-Same thing, Will has more NBA stuff, but Andrej is a more complete player at 21 than Will was as a freshman
I do wish we returned Tre, but I think it's fair to say Ben, Mirkovic, and Big Z can equal or better the production we got at the 4 last year
Year 2 Tomi>Year 1
 
#231      
Scoregasm
LvilleILL1 said:
This team should absolutely be better than last year.

Going through the lineup:
KJ=Petrovic. KJ has way more upside/NBA talent, but Petrovic will likely be a lot more steady and not turn it over as much
Year 2 Kylan>Year 1
Andrej S> slight edge over Will-Same thing, Will has more NBA stuff, but Andrej is a more complete player at 21 than Will was as a freshman
I do wish we returned Tre, but I think it's fair to say Ben, Mirkovic, and Big Z can equal or better the production we got at the 4 last year
Year 2 Tomi>Year 1
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Agree from an offensive standpoint. Wondering what our defense will look like? Is Petrovic a plus defender? If both Ivisic's are playing, what does our perimeter D look like? Are Ben and Mirk going to be at least solid defenders? What about the freshmen? Is our new assistant up to the challenge? Lots of questions there....
 
#233      
NarrowJ
LvilleILL1 said:
This team should absolutely be better than last year.

Going through the lineup:
KJ=Petrovic. KJ has way more upside/NBA talent, but Petrovic will likely be a lot more steady and not turn it over as much
Year 2 Kylan>Year 1
Andrej S> slight edge over Will-Same thing, Will has more NBA stuff, but Andrej is a more complete player at 21 than Will was as a freshman
I do wish we returned Tre, but I think it's fair to say Ben, Mirkovic, and Big Z can equal or better the production we got at the 4 last year
Year 2 Tomi>Year 1
Click to expand...

Add in the fact that talent level across CBB will be watered down this year significantly due to no more extra-covid-year players, and it makes experience and returning minutes even more beneficial than they already were.
 
#234      
Combo
Scoregasm said:
Agree from an offensive standpoint. Wondering what our defense will look like? Is Petrovic a plus defender? If both Ivisic's are playing, what does our perimeter D look like? Are Ben and Mirk going to be at least solid defenders? What about the freshmen? Is our new assistant up to the challenge? Lots of questions there....
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I agree. I think this team will score a lot - possibly our highest team PPG ever. But I also think our opponents will score a lot.
 
#235      
MainelyIllini
Got this email today in case anyone wants to get tickets:


It looks like this is associated with UConn basketball....

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#237      
skyIdub
LvilleILL1 said:
This team should absolutely be better than last year.

Going through the lineup:
KJ=Petrovic. KJ has way more upside/NBA talent, but Petrovic will likely be a lot more steady and not turn it over as much
Year 2 Kylan>Year 1
Andrej S> slight edge over Will-Same thing, Will has more NBA stuff, but Andrej is a more complete player at 21 than Will was as a freshman
I do wish we returned Tre, but I think it's fair to say Ben, Mirkovic, and Big Z can equal or better the production we got at the 4 last year
Year 2 Tomi>Year 1
Click to expand...

But...what about their ceiling?

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#239      
Fly Illini Fly!
LvilleILL1 said:
This team should absolutely be better than last year.

Going through the lineup:
KJ=Petrovic. KJ has way more upside/NBA talent, but Petrovic will likely be a lot more steady and not turn it over as much
Year 2 Kylan>Year 1
Andrej S> slight edge over Will-Same thing, Will has more NBA stuff, but Andrej is a more complete player at 21 than Will was as a freshman
I do wish we returned Tre, but I think it's fair to say Ben, Mirkovic, and Big Z can equal or better the production we got at the 4 last year
Year 2 Tomi>Year 1
Click to expand...
Is the Wagler buzz still as strong?
 
#240      
Illiniforlife
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Sleepers guys think Andrej will be a bust.
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I completely agree with this statement. I’ve spoken with a few people who’ve had conversations with Tyler Underwood, and it sounds like the staff has been somewhat disappointed in Andrej. According to what I heard, Tyler mentioned that while Andrej is clearly a good athlete—as we all know—he really struggles with shooting, which is obviously a concern.

Of course, time will tell, but based on what we've heard so far, I’m not expecting him to live up to the reported $2.5 million investment.
 
#242      
NarrowJ
Illiniforlife said:
I completely agree with this statement. I’ve spoken with a few people who’ve had conversations with Tyler Underwood, and it sounds like the staff has been somewhat disappointed in Andrej. According to what I heard, Tyler mentioned that while Andrej is clearly a good athlete—as we all know—he really struggles with shooting, which is obviously a concern.

Of course, time will tell, but based on what we've heard so far, I’m not expecting him to live up to the reported $2.5 million investment.
Click to expand...

@LvilleILL1 accuracy of this?
 
#243      
PepeSilvia
Illiniforlife said:
I completely agree with this statement. I’ve spoken with a few people who’ve had conversations with Tyler Underwood, and it sounds like the staff has been somewhat disappointed in Andrej. According to what I heard, Tyler mentioned that while Andrej is clearly a good athlete—as we all know—he really struggles with shooting, which is obviously a concern.
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Lol maybe this is the thing we need after all the reports last year talking about how great of shooters everyone was and they then they shot 30% from 3.

That being said I don't think Stojakovic is any worse than an average shooter.
 
#244      
Mobi
PepeSilvia said:
Lol maybe this is the thing we need after all the reports last year talking about how great of shooters everyone was and they then they shot 30% from 3.

That being said I don't think Stojakovic is any worse than an average shooter.
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That's where I don't agree with Brad. If you want to be a 3pt shooting team, at least find a really good one or two shooters (Plummer qualified as one for me.) Perhaps they thought KJ and Kylan would be very good shooters but obviously they were wrong.
 
#245      
NarrowJ
I mean KJ shooting splits were 50/40/90 before the wrist and Kylan shot 38% from 3 on a sample size of 251 attempts across 2 full seasons at Arizona, so it was just weird more than anything imo
 
#246      
JKR
Combo said:
I agree. I think this team will score a lot - possibly our highest team PPG ever. But I also think our opponents will score a lot.
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I believe our highest team PPG would be Harry Combes' '64 team that scored >92ppg. This was long before the shot clock and the three-point shot. I don't see this team approaching those numbers.
 
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