Pregame: Illinois at Indiana, Saturday, September 20th, 6:30pm CT, NBC

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#276      
Illini2010-11
RML said:
Interesting thought experiment... If given the choice, it can be arranged so the team will without question win the national championship this year, but you have to submit to a DNA change that will make you an insufferable a-hole fan....(think Scum fan, or domer fan), do you take the deal?
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twc311 GIF by truTV’s Those Who Can’t
 
#278      
sitka
Fkfootball said:
Having coaches like Gerry Dinardo and Tom Allen mean about as much to the current situation as having coaches like Tim Beckman and Lovie Smith.
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We’ve had CHAMPIONSHIP coaches in the last 42 years—White, Mackovic, Turner
 
#279      
Saturdaze
Second place is 1st loser said:
To the contrary......that's exactly the point I want to get to. Our basketball team is the classic example.

Pre BU, get some decent recruits, miss out on the main targets and getting a 8-10 seed was a good year and being barely on the right side of the bubble was acceptable.

Now, if we don't land a top national talent, it's a major disappointment, if we don't get a double bye in the BTT it's a disappointment and if we're not a top 5 seed in the NCAAT it's a disappointment. People want BU's head because he's only gotten us to one Elite 8.

That's where you want to be as a program. You want extremely high expectations and if you miss them, you want to feel disappointed. That's how really good programs operate.

BB doesn't have the program there yet because the consistency of winning is there yet. He wants to get the program to a point where a 7 win season is unacceptable. As a head coach, those are the things you strive for. As fans of this program, we're in no mans land. We want to believe that we're arriving, BUT we have FAR more data points to prove that things can end up being a disaster. This program needs 4 or 5 years of continuous winning, beating good teams, hanging with great times and getting to a solid bowl every year to wipe two decades of disgust out of our minds.
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I’m dating myself because I have internalized a totally different “pre-BU” perspective BUT I otherwise totally agree with your last paragraph.
 
#283      
Serious Late
RabidDawgClassic said:
Vegas sets their lines based on what they think the bettors will think. The bookmakers might personally believe Illinois will win by 30, but if they also believe the bettors think Indiana will win by 3, that’s where they’ll set the line. Then adjust accordingly as the bets come in, naturally.
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Just to continue being the guy who hammers this home, no, lines are not set based on where they "think" 50% of the action will be. They dont know that when they set their lines. They set lines based on their own highly sophisticated models. They then adjusted throughout the week based primarily on information provided in the form of bets from more sophisticated bettors.

This is why ESPN moving to to 3.5 doesnt matter when Pinnacle is at 4. Pinnacle accepts bets from bettors with better information than them. ESPN bans bettors with better information and will be more likely to move a number based on action. (Also ESPN at 3.5, +100 relative to Pinnacle at 4, +109 isnt very different given it isnt a key number).

This is why you will see every week, reports on where sportsbooks hold the most liability. If 95% of the money was on Illinois at close, that just means that there is a lot of money from people betting on Illinois that dont have respected information according to the sportsbooks.

Numbers matter. All year, we have been less respected by models than by polls. I really hope our power ratings have to be adjusted. We play clean and they play sloppy, I like our chances. Both teams play clean, it will be a battle. Im not overly worried about us coming out sloppy, the question is can our athletes keep up with theirs.
 
#286      
BoiseBaller
Saturdaze said:
It’s still a matter of perspective. South Carolina was our first win over a ranked team since Bielema arrived; we’re 1-8 versus AP top 25 since 2021.

You can argue me on that point and claim wins over teams like Kansas, Nebraska, and Michigan last year, but that’s not how the record books are kept as all 3 bottomed out during the season. Is winning against Kansas when they lost 5 in a row have any meaning because they were ranked preseason?

Bielema is crushing it, and I’m proud as a fan to how far he’s raised the program, but we’re reaching the point where consistency is what separates teams. I just haven’t seen our coordinators perform consistently with the level of preparation needed to be a top 10 team.

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Even Nebraska was ranked last year when we beat them in Lincoln.

This game will be tight. Win the turnover battle, win the game. One thing about Bret's teams, they don't beat themselves.
 
#288      
Curbelo Fanboy
BoiseBaller said:
Even Nebraska was ranked last year when we beat them in Lincoln.

This game will be tight. Win the turnover battle, win the game. One thing about Bret's teams, they don't beat themselves.
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Your last sentence is the key. We might lose this week, but the overarching theme of Bertball (as I like to call it) is you just don't beat yourselves with turnovers & general on field stupidity. How many decent IL teams have we seen go up in flames because of costly turnovers, stupid penalties, and an overall lack of discipline on the field (late hits, taunting, etc).

Because of this, the overall talent level that Bret needs to achieve high levels of success is probably a little less than other less discipline focused coaches. Of course you need ballers to be a consistent top 10 program but if you habitually play smart, disciplined ball control football, you can win with a few less 4 & 5 stars than other programs that are a little more loosey goosey on the discipline side.

I really think we can see the NFL influence on Bret's style. I know he was good at Wiscy & so/so at Arkansas, but it seems his time on NFL staffs really taught him the value of even the minute details. In that league so many games are decided in such tight margins that small details like field position, ball security, etc take on even greater significance. As one of the guys on the postgame put it Saturday night, Bret wins games "in the margins". The small stuff that doesn't always seems significant but if you are solid with the small stuff, it can add up to something very meaningful.
 
#289      
HereSoIDontGetFined
BoiseBaller said:
Even Nebraska was ranked last year when we beat them in Lincoln.

This game will be tight. Win the turnover battle, win the game. One thing about Bret's teams, they don't beat themselves.
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Even if the facts are a bit off, I think the overall gist is correct. Saturday is when we can truly break through as a program. No more letdown seasons after we get our once-in-a-decade great season. Beat Indiana, and 11-1 plus a playoff berth is within sight.
 
#290      
HailtotheChief
Dkayak said:
Big picture question for y’all. I’m truly puzzled.

Collectively speaking, the highly paid professional coaches polled put Illinois far ahead of IU. OTOH the betting public gives a slight edge to IU. Furthermore, the betting public has significantly underestimated the Illini this season. So tell me please, which group has deeper, more credible insights? In your minds, why would the spread trump the coaches polls?
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Totally agree with what you are implying coaches did this for a logical reason. I trust the coaches and IU may be better or worse but the Coaches have a better idea about what to expect from us with 16 or 17 returnees. IU only has 8 and is harder to project so we really dont kmow how they will gel after just 3 games together and a weak schedule.
Setting the spread is to get even money on both sides and let the bookie make 10% from the losing side. People bet with thier hearts often and are not informed like Coaches.
 
#291      
HailtotheChief
Serious Late said:
Just to continue being the guy who hammers this home, no, lines are not set based on where they "think" 50% of the action will be. They dont know that when they set their lines. They set lines based on their own highly sophisticated models. They then adjusted throughout the week based primarily on information provided in the form of bets from more sophisticated bettors.

This is why ESPN moving to to 3.5 doesnt matter when Pinnacle is at 4. Pinnacle accepts bets from bettors with better information than them. ESPN bans bettors with better information and will be more likely to move a number based on action. (Also ESPN at 3.5, +100 relative to Pinnacle at 4, +109 isnt very different given it isnt a key number).

This is why you will see every week, reports on where sportsbooks hold the most liability. If 95% of the money was on Illinois at close, that just means that there is a lot of money from people betting on Illinois that dont have respected information according to the sportsbooks.

Numbers matter. All year, we have been less respected by models than by polls. I really hope our power ratings have to be adjusted. We play clean and they play sloppy, I like our chances. Both teams play clean, it will be a battle. Im not overly worried about us coming out sloppy, the question is can our athletes keep up with theirs.
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The one thing I didn't hear you mention that personally I feel is a major edge for the Illini is our experience as a unit. Sure being athletic matters. However, one reason Saban took us over Duke and others referred to as a favorite to do well in 2026 is the experience of our core and more depth than in the past. Plus our talent is getting better and deeper. I believe what the majority of our returning starters did last year and playing together for several games combined with our athletes and depth are 3 key factors that hopefully will give us an edge. They may have the most athletic wrs we have faced but still only 3 games with this new QB. Playing IU early instead of later this season as they have time to gel is likely a good thing for our squad.
 
#293      
Fly Illini Fly!
IlliniInCAN said:
As much as I would love to say Illinois is the real #9 team and they should win comfortably, the reality is, if they play like they have the last 2 weeks they will lose this game by double digits and it may not be close.

The team speed is not great, and the db’s are not as strong as years past. This week and next with USC will tell a lot about how real this team is.

Hope I’m way off, but I’d take the -4.5.

IU 34 UI 21
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You do know we've outscored our opponent by 64 points in that span?
 
#296      
HereSoIDontGetFined
MoCoMdIllini said:
For ESPN, the "next tier of teams" is anyone outside the SEC.
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Unfortunately, this is the case. It's no longer some amorphous "SEC bias" kind of thing like it appeared 20 years ago. They literally own the SEC network, and it's incumbent upon them to promote the programs therein. Rittenberg is talking to fans here, but the message is better directed to his superiors.
 
#297      
hooraybeer
HereSoIDontGetFined said:
Unfortunately, this is the case. It's no longer some amorphous "SEC bias" kind of thing like it appeared 20 years ago. They literally own the SEC network, and it's incumbent upon them to promote the programs therein. Rittenberg is talking to fans here, but the message is better directed to his superiors.
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(extremely) thinly veiled shade and maybe even disrespect
 
#300      
Curbelo Fanboy
HereSoIDontGetFined said:
Unfortunately, this is the case. It's no longer some amorphous "SEC bias" kind of thing like it appeared 20 years ago. They literally own the SEC network, and it's incumbent upon them to promote the programs therein. Rittenberg is talking to fans here, but the message is better directed to his superiors.
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Not to branch too far off topic of the beloved orange & blue, but this in a nutshell the pattern that ESPN has repeated over the last 20 years. As they have shelled out mega cash to be the NBA rights holder, the NFL rights holder & now the SEC rights holder, their coverage has become so slanted to cover only that which they pay the rights fees for & act like all else is irrelevant.

They were a much better entity when they covered everyone from a somewhat neutral perspective. This really sticks out on the college side. I mean they been pumping South Carolina this year ahead of Illinois (not after SC got beat). The objective metrics would tell you IL beat them at the end of last year, returned virtually their entire roster & is at least the equal if not superior to SC. But nope, all the ESPN yappers got SC as a borderline top 10 outfit in the preseason. Just a blatant SEC bias.
 
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