Illini Football 2025

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#201      
OrangeBlue98
SuperMetroid said:
The most likely path to the CFP for us is still the following:

Win the 7 games where we’ll be favored:
WIU - WMU - @Purdue - Rutgers - Maryland - @Wisconsin - Northwestern

Go at least 3-2 in the toss-up/underdog games:
@Duke - @Indinia - USC - Ohio $tate - @Washington

A loss tomorrow would not be great but also not fatal. We’d really need to beat USC though. I vote we just go ahead and win both. :illinois:
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Let’s just hope for 6 wins first.
 
#202      
OrangeBlue98
We’ve seen this script for 30’years.
 
#203      
IlliniInBuckeyeState
Nobody wants to talk about this after last night, but here is an updated Gies Memorial Stadium Sellout Watch:

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According to this latest update, Rutgers is effectively sold out. If that is legit, then I would expect a sellout announcement as soon as tomorrow. But I find curious though is that, while there are still a few rows of unsold seats in the EB and EM, the top rows that are normally held back as unavailable are all showing as being in a sold status. That is either wrong or the DIA gave away a bunch of tickets. Regardless, it would technically lead to a sellout, but part of me feels like they may flip them back into an unsold status - that game is over a month away.

So bottom line: Rutgers appears to be at the point of a sellout status, but I'm skeptical and think it's going to be a little while before it's named a sellout.
 
#204      
Illinijoe
Lol seriously. People need to stop with the kool aid. We are 8-4 at best right now. We got absolutely rolled and our staff just saw back. Last year we had an enormous amount of luck which is fine but it is a fact. Rutgers and Purdue needed miracles.
 
#205      
STLini25
Last year’s lucky wins REALLY inflated who we really are. Were we the 9th best team in the country? Not even close.

We are outclassed compared to PSU, Oregon, Indiana, OSU

In reality we are on the level with Kansas, Nebraska, Purdue, Rutgers.

We are slightly better than MSU, Northwestern.

A way more fair assessment is we were an average BT team last year and likely this year. Our +/- in BT regulation is more than minus 50 this year and last in 10 games.
 
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#206      
Saturdaze
If you watch enough football every team is flawed.

There are the Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia teams that are just solid, but it’s just a handful of teams. After that every team is flawed. I think we deserved our ranking last year and still deserve a top 20 ranking this coming week. We shall see if the voters agree.
 
#207      
STLini25
Saturdaze said:
If you watch enough football every team is flawed.

There are the Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia teams that are just solid, but it’s just a handful of teams. After that every team is flawed. I think we deserved our ranking last year and still deserve a top 20 ranking this coming week. We shall see if the voters agree.
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I’m an Illinois die hard and optimist, we are no where near a top 20 team. We will find out Saturday. If we are 20 then we should beat USC by 7 at home and beat Purdue by 20 next week.
 
#208      
illinifan4249
SP+ has us at 36th in the country which was a larger fall than I expected given that we already were lower ranked in the various advanced metrics. Seems to predict 7 or 8 wins now effectively lowering our projections by 1 full win despite not being expected to win yesterday.
 
#213      
GoodePodzMelendez
BrownTown said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1969950129869254980

Disgusting. It's worse than I realized
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This is not how a OL that is full of experience plays. This ness is on Miller. Bret needs to pull the plug on this as we need a OL coach who can get the job done. We should be blowing teams off the black but we are getting beat when they run 3 or 4 against our line. I really thought Bret would have pulled the trigger this morning but he is loyal to Miller I guess.
 
#214      
Battle89
Prediction check-in, 1/3rd of the way through the regular season:

I an notoriously bad at this - ✅

Game 1 - it appears my ideas of resting starters are pretty far apart from the staff's ideas of rest.
Game 2 - sort of felt this call was right but the TOs sure hid a lot and fueled the optimism.
Game 3 - could not have been more right, the injuries in garbage time (both when way ahead or way behind) are going to be a common refrain for this whole season - feels very much like the 'why are we playing BH so much' from last year's basketball threads.
Game 4 - could not have been more wrong here.

I think I stand with my future picks as is, sure hope that IU was our crap-the-bed game but Maryland still looks legit to me (not IU-levels of legit but still an L).

7-5
upside Maryland 8-4
downside wheels fall off

1758549994859.png
 
#215      
Red77sng
GoodePodzMelendez said:
This is not how a OL that is full of experience plays. This ness is on Miller. Bret needs to pull the plug on this as we need a OL coach who can get the job done. We should be blowing teams off the black but we are getting beat when they run 3 or 4 against our line. I really thought Bret would have pulled the trigger this morning but he is loyal to Miller I guess.
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Bret not going to fire a coach in the middle of the season
 
#216      
CaptainCrutch
I think we can all forget about a CFP berth, so let’s adjust our expectations.

What makes this season a success? I think if you can find a way to go 8-4 and win a bowl game you’re looking at this as a good season. I think 7-5 or worse and this doesn’t really look great. Just the way I see it.

Damage already done with the IU game. We thought we had a chance to be upper-echelon and we’re just not right now. That’s okay. If we can find a way to 8-4 (OSU a given L, that means you can afford two more) then that’s gotta be looked at as a good season. I think your remaining schedule looks like:

USC - likely a loss, but not promising at this moment.

Purdue - good chance at a win, but not guaranteed.

Ohio State - L

Washington - not looking good, likely L

Rutgers - truly a toss up I believe.

Maryland - depends on Malik Washington’s development but I’d say it’s doable to win that one.

Wisconsin - looks like a win at the moment.

Northwestern - looks like a win at the moment.

So, at 3-1, I’m thinking you have:
- 1 guaranteed L (OSU)
- 2 likely L’s (USC, Washington)
- 2 true toss ups (Rutgers, Maryland)
- 3 likely W’s (Purdue, Wisconsin, NU)

If that holds true, formula is (a) take care of business on your 3 likely W’s, (b) go .500 against your toss-ups, and (c) find a way to win against USC or Washington. If you can’t do either of (c), hope you clear the toss-ups.

8-4 would sting from summer expectations, but it would keep you trending positive.
 
#217      
the juiceman cometh
CaptainCrutch said:
I think we can all forget about a CFP berth, so let’s adjust our expectations.

What makes this season a success? I think if you can find a way to go 8-4 and win a bowl game you’re looking at this as a good season. I think 7-5 or worse and this doesn’t really look great. Just the way I see it.

Damage already done with the IU game. We thought we had a chance to be upper-echelon and we’re just not right now. That’s okay. If we can find a way to 8-4 (OSU a given L, that means you can afford two more) then that’s gotta be looked at as a good season. I think your remaining schedule looks like:

USC - likely a loss, but not promising at this moment.

Purdue - good chance at a win, but not guaranteed.

Ohio State - L

Washington - not looking good, likely L

Rutgers - truly a toss up I believe.

Maryland - depends on Malik Washington’s development but I’d say it’s doable to win that one.

Wisconsin - looks like a win at the moment.

Northwestern - looks like a win at the moment.

So, at 3-1, I’m thinking you have:
- 1 guaranteed L (OSU)
- 2 likely L’s (USC, Washington)
- 2 true toss ups (Rutgers, Maryland)
- 3 likely W’s (Purdue, Wisconsin, NU)

If that holds true, formula is (a) take care of business on your 3 likely W’s, (b) go .500 against your toss-ups, and (c) find a way to win against USC or Washington. If you can’t do either of (c), hope you clear the toss-ups.

8-4 would sting from summer expectations, but it would keep you trending positive.
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Knowing what we know now, 8-4 is a great result. I've always thought back-to-back 8-win seasons was a bigger deal for the sustained success kf the program than getting the single 10-win season. Still hope we can achieve that. Good analysis on what we need to do.

I'm kind of very split on what is going to happen. I could completely see a result where this team responds, beats USC, beats Purdue, plays somewhat competitive vs OSU and then the 8 win, maybe even 9 win season is back on.

But I can equally clearly see this team getting roughed up again, by USC, losing the next 3 after that and then going into those final four having lost 5, and at that point it's not hard to see a 2-2 or even 1-3 finish.
 
#218      
IllinoisMan
Sure, Indiana would probably win a rematch on a neutral field, but 63-10 is a fluke. The line was 6, not 53. What happened Saturday was psychological. The team lost hope early and spiraled. Think that's mumbo-jumbo, that it's just talent and X's and O's? Hope is critical. Look at Florida State. In 2023 they went 13-0 and were made the fool. In 2024 they were 2-10.

Do the players still have hope for this season? If, like some of us, they feel like fools for believing then it's over. Bret's going to have to dig deep into that reservoir of Hall of Fame mentoring to recover. They'll need energy from the crowd to do it. I *hope* they receive it. I'll be there to do my meager part on Saturday.
 
#219      
Illinijoe
CaptainCrutch said:
I think we can all forget about a CFP berth, so let’s adjust our expectations.

What makes this season a success? I think if you can find a way to go 8-4 and win a bowl game you’re looking at this as a good season. I think 7-5 or worse and this doesn’t really look great. Just the way I see it.

Damage already done with the IU game. We thought we had a chance to be upper-echelon and we’re just not right now. That’s okay. If we can find a way to 8-4 (OSU a given L, that means you can afford two more) then that’s gotta be looked at as a good season. I think your remaining schedule looks like:

USC - likely a loss, but not promising at this moment.

Purdue - good chance at a win, but not guaranteed.

Ohio State - L

Washington - not looking good, likely L

Rutgers - truly a toss up I believe.

Maryland - depends on Malik Washington’s development but I’d say it’s doable to win that one.

Wisconsin - looks like a win at the moment.

Northwestern - looks like a win at the moment.

So, at 3-1, I’m thinking you have:
- 1 guaranteed L (OSU)
- 2 likely L’s (USC, Washington)
- 2 true toss ups (Rutgers, Maryland)
- 3 likely W’s (Purdue, Wisconsin, NU)

If that holds true, formula is (a) take care of business on your 3 likely W’s, (b) go .500 against your toss-ups, and (c) find a way to win against USC or Washington. If you can’t do either of (c), hope you clear the toss-ups.

8-4 would sting from summer expectations, but it would keep you trending positive.
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This is a nice overview and agree with this. We absolutely must win Purdue, Wisconsion and NU. Then, we need to find 2 wins somewhere else and as you state, even Purdue is not an automatic win.

To be honest, many on this board (and just overall fanbase & media) had way too high expectations. I believe Vegas had over/under wins at 7.5. In general, the metrics showed we were likely an 8-4 team. Given the advanced stats from last year, this was very reasonable. There was way too much emphasis placed on the 10-3 season last year when in fact, this team was very close in so many games.

If we truly are able to go 8-4, that would be outstanding and almost unprecedented for this program. We need to all understand we are no where near a top 10 team even a top 20 team at this point. Now, if a few bounces go our way, then we can sneak into the top 20 like last year.

For anyone saying it would "sting" to go 8-4, then I suggest you reset your expectations and be reasonable.
 
#220      
CaptainCrutch
IllinoisMan said:
Sure, Indiana would probably win a rematch on a neutral field, but 63-10 is a fluke. The line was 6, not 53.
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Disagree. I thinks both teams really did have resumes that made them hard to peg. Indiana whooped everyone but Ohio State and ND last year. Those two made the CFP championship game. There really wasn’t a team that was “good not great” to compare to other than Nebraska and they slaughtered them 56-7.

We went 10-3 last year with a lot of lucky breaks. We got smoked by Oregon, but they could have done to us what Indiana just did if they didn’t let off the gas. We hung in there with Penn State, to our credit, but the Minnesota game was probably the real litmus test.

I’d say right now:

OSU, Oregon in their own tier, then a tier with Indiana, PSU, and USC (probably), then a tier 3 of Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska, Rutgers, Washington, and (probably) Illinois. Tier 4 would be Maryland, Minnesota and (probably) MSU and Purdue, then a bottom tier of Wisconsin, Northwestern and UCLA.
 
#221      
1970 John
Bear Bryant coach popularity award

OK, you can vote once every 24 hours. Yes, it's cheesy but we won the Cheezits Bowl last fall. Click here to vote for Bret.
 
#222      
CaptainCrutch
Man, just heard Bart Miller’s media availability and that sounded like a lot of blame shifting. I feel like he’s trying to save the resume for the next job based on his responses and tone.
 
#223      
STLini25
CaptainCrutch said:
Man, just heard Bart Miller’s media availability and that sounded like a lot of blame shifting. I feel like he’s trying to save the resume for the next job based on his responses and tone.
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I agree it was a lot of pointing blame. I wanted a reporter to ask that the Indiana coach said he watched Illinois offensive line game tape and thought they could easily attack it and then he did. Why was he able to easily exploit our offensive line?
 
#224      
STLini25
The state of the program could be drastically different after Saturday.

Scenario 1: Illinois beats USC and Indiana beats Iowa by 40. The optimism is back and maybe we can still go 10-2.

Scenario 2: USC beats us by 14+ and Iowa plays Indiana close. Illinois is a below average B10 program.

The crowd on Saturday is going to be anxious. Beat USC and they will be in relief and a frenzy. Play poorly and might hear some boos which is hard to believe given where we were 4 days ago.
 
#225      
therealmiket86
GoodePodzMelendez said:
This is not how a OL that is full of experience plays. This ness is on Miller. Bret needs to pull the plug on this as we need a OL coach who can get the job done. We should be blowing teams off the black but we are getting beat when they run 3 or 4 against our line. I really thought Bret would have pulled the trigger this morning but he is loyal to Miller I guess.
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I 100% think a move should be made. Part of the problem also is Luke taking sacks and play callings. What’s scary is how little players have developed and how bad they’ve been at evaluating recruits. We really miss having Josh McCray in pass pro. All 3 backs we have are very bad blockers.
 
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