Exactly. And NIL resources can change in a hurry. Any large Univeristy has the capability to have high NIL numbers. You just have to get the donors engaged and bought in. Cignetti literally said he had to be a little crazy last year because IU's fanbase was dead and needed a spark.
The “It Could Be Worse” Thread
- Status
Exactly. And NIL resources can change in a hurry. Any large Univeristy has the capability to have high NIL numbers. You just have to get the donors engaged and bought in. Cignetti literally said he had to be a little crazy last year because IU's fanbase was dead and needed a spark.
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
Who cares at this point. Cigs has found his final coaching resting place as has our BB. I can imagine a great coaching feud between the two develop over the next ten years or so. And it would behoove the schedule makers to keep UI vs IU playing each other over that time span.
This strikes me as out-dated thinking. The revenue sharing has dramatically changed the funding at lower level BIG and SEC programs, and NIL gives teams the opportunity to negate all that history and bag-man shadow money. Does tOSU have more? Heck yeah, but can "small market" programs compete if they're better at identifying and acquiring players, coaching, and development. Absolutely. And the recruiting pull has a lot to do with the coach. A couple seasons with IU in and Bama struggling, high schoolers and current players will notice.
IUs roster relative to OSU --that gap is WAY smaller than it once was, and having been there last year, there's a lot of valuable experience up and down the staff and roster that will help them be more competitive in the big games. I'm not sure what the line would be, but I would be surprised if they're double digit dogs even on the road with Penn State. @Oregon maybe, but I'd still think they're under 10.
Given what they've done so far this season, I don't see the questions around talent. Even if they're less talented in any real sense, they're still competitive with what they've got. As you say, it's a debate where time will tell.
It may be outdated, probably is, I don't know or care enough to embed myself deeply enough into football > hoops to know all the answers. The reason I sort of think Cignetti has reached his ceiling is because I see last year, this year & future years playing out in similar fashion - awesome head coach who has upped the talent at IU, but ultimately can't push firmly into the tier 1 schools of the conference. Wipe the floor against cupcakes, flex his muscles against mid-big10 teams, but fall short against OSU, Penn State, Oregon, and doesn't make it past round 1 or 2 of the playoffs - never really, consistently cracks into that elite level of top-tier teams because well, those other programs also bring money bags to the table, have impressive resources with brands that practically recruit themselves. I completely get that NIL has narrowed the gap and changed the landscape (IU in fact is a great example), but it's hard to envision a world in which this is truly flipped in the timespan of Cignetti's remaining career. If he were younger, I could absolutely see a world in which he builds this Hoosier football machine that attracts the same level of talent as the big boys over time. Like I said, I don't know a thing, it's all conjecture - but I'd be curious to see how people view this if IU doesn't fare well against OSU/Penn State/Oregon and doesn't go deep into the playoffs this year or next.
I think both of your comments and Illiniguy13’s comments are correct. Can Cignetti have Indiana as a top 15 program? Yes. Is he going to still have a difficult time betting OSU, Oregon, Alabama and Georgia? Yes. We will get a better answer to that in the next few weeks with Indiana. They have difficult games coming up.
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
Can you guys fill me in on this mythical plane of college football where it is not difficult to beat Oregon, OSU, UGA, Bama, etc.?
The original poster’s point is it would be easier for Cignetti to compete for national championships at Alabama rather than Indiana even though he’s significantly reduced the gap between Indiana and the powers in college football.
I think the point is that it's hard for coaches at that program to beat each other too. Cignetti has lost two games in his entire tenure at Indiana and those two games were to the eventual national champion and eventual runner up. Based on this extremely small sample size we've concluded that he won't ever be able to win those games at Indiana?
It's clear to me this is entirely built on the idea that it's Indiana, and Indiana can never, in any universe, be at the caliber of, say, Oregon. The funny thing is that Oregon football was a complete non-factor until about 30 years ago. Before the transfer portal and NIL even provided a clear path to do so, Oregon managed to build a powerhouse out of nothing. To think that now, in a much more receptive landscape, the same can't be done at Indiana, or any other SEC or Big Ten school, is simply a failure of imagination.
I agree but it’s clearly more difficult to win at Indiana than Alabama in the next 5-10 years (Cignetti’s window)
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
I'm not sure it is more difficult to win at Indiana than at Alabama in the next 5 months.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I personally so wanted this to be true, and then Saturday night happened.
But, of course, your premise is 100% correct. The college landscape is nothing like it once was, and if you can get the right coach surrounded by the right support, program turnarounds can happen quite quickly. I think it just stings that even a school like IU (where football is a general afterthought for the collective base) can get the football program in such a good place at a lighting pace, and our progress is a much slower/bumpy process. We are still in a great place, relative to where we have been, but it is hard not to be disappointed at the same time.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I am not certain that you can make a definitive statement like that. There is no data in the new college landscape that can prove this point without a doubt.
What might be lost is that these major programs like Bama, Georgia, etc. always had extremely high-end talent that would wait a year or two to become the starters. With NIL the way it is, that talent has no clear incentive to simply wait for their turn. If anything, we are seeing a great equalizing across the country, where very solid coaching is imperative (look at Clemson's falloff recently as an example).
In the new landscape, the right coach can bring in talent to his system and succeed at virtually any major program in the SEC/B1G (provided they receive the right support). Given lower expectations at a place like IU compared to Bama, I think it actually might be easier to win at IU (less second guessing by the entire fanbase over every little thing).
No such conclusion has been made. Like I said, I'd absolutely change my tune if IU takes down the big boys of the conference - it'd be evident Cigs hadn't reached his ceiling with the program. This is all purely conjecture based on how last year played out - nonetheless, a conjecture that's at least based in reality. Imagination is cool and worthwhile. Last year, to my eye, what I saw based on real results, was a really awesome IU team that clearly established themselves in the 2nd tier of college ball - a team that earned a CFP spot that still took a firm backseat to the tier 1 schools because they simply didn't measure up. That's how college football goes and why parity doesn't exist to the same degree as hoops. I don't think it's insane to envision a similar story unfold this year for IU and perhaps next year as well. Could be right, could be wrong - but IF a similar tale plays out, results would point to Cignetti reaching his ceiling at IU. From a career progression standpoint, it'd make all the sense in the world for him to ascend the coaching ranks. But that's neither here nor there. Just my two cents that equal precisely $0.00.
I agree with the concept that NIL has changed the landscape of college football. That was actually my original point earlier in this discussion.
However, the specific question is is it easier to win a national championship at OSU, Oregon, UGA, Alabama or Indiana in the next 5-10 years. I said it’s still easier at those 4 schools which I think is clearly the case.
We can make 4 bets a year who goes farther Indiana or each of the 4 teams listed every year for the next ten years if you want? Clearly, you wouldn’t accept that bet.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
When I last investigated the data back in the Stone Age of the '00s, Indiana had the worst record, and least success of any Big Ten program in the history of the conference. Illinois wasn't a great deal better; however, we had a strange pattern of strong success and abject failure, like a Fourier transform but one in which the peaks are short and the troughs are long, whereas Indiana sucking was usually as predictable as the sun rising in the east.
Two things seem beyond dispute: Indiana has been woeful forever, and none of that history is relevant today.
Cignetti is Barry Alvarez on steroids b/c he occupies an age in which one can assemble a powerhouse overnight with sufficient funds and coaching acumen.
Of course it's difficult. But from the perspective of Cignetti's Hoosiers, I'd be interested in seeing that actually happen, at least once, before claims arise of his ceiling existing beyond that.
He didn't put in an unnecessary apostrophe, so I am ok with it.
Curbelo Fanboy
BERTBALL IS LIFE
Where IU would be vulnerable with Cignetti is they don't have that "football culture" ingrained due to a lack of success over the years. I'd guess the cost of maintaining a high level of success would become untenable for them long before say Florida, Clemson or some other southern program.
Why? Indiana has the 13th biggest athletic department budget (source USA Today)
IlliniKat91
- Chicago, IL
it’s not a top 25 job by any means
but he has them in the top 20 rankings wise two years in a row . rare air in Btown
chiefini
- Rockford, Illinois
Best wishes for a safe delivery.- Status