We can all agree on this: let’s just go 11-1. 
Illini Football 2025
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We can all agree on this: let’s just go 11-1.
You are saying if Indiana goes 9-3 and Illinois goes 10-2. And PSU, OSU and Oregon go 10-2 or better that Illinois is 100% out and BT gets 3 teams? Thats what everyone is disagreeing with you about. A 4th place 10-2 BT team is in especially when 1 loss is to the #1 team.
So, I don’t understand Bielema’s comments about saboor karriem. Is he leading after this year or did he just decide to burn a red shirt?
It seems that Illinois most realistic path to the CFP is to be competitive in OSU game and win everything else to go 10-2. Then we need Indiana to beat PSU; makes our loss look more reasonable and hopefully gives PSU a 9-3 regular season record and eliminates them from consideration.
I don’t like our chances at getting into CFP, even with 10-2 final record, if OSU game is a blowout loss. Would suggest we aren’t able to challenge other CFP level teams yet. Of course this all depends on how other teams fare during rest of the season.
Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
Agreed based on the things that my son told me that he witnessed from sitting in the stands at that game….smh
I think BB was able to convince him he has a role on the team even if it is minimal playing time other than special teams .
I’m sure he also mentioned that he believes the 5 for 5 will pass and a redshirt isn’t necessary.
BZuppke
- Plainfield
Playoff talk. IU happens ‘we $uck’. Beat USC playoff talk.
We have very little chance to get to the playoff. Most likely tOSU, Oregon and possibly IU are in. That leaves no room for us even if we eke out a tight win v tOSU.
Plus I think we lose 3 games this year anyhow.
And I’ll be thrilled with a 9-3 record and a great big time bowl game.
We have very little chance to get to the playoff. Most likely tOSU, Oregon and possibly IU are in. That leaves no room for us even if we eke out a tight win v tOSU.
Plus I think we lose 3 games this year anyhow.
And I’ll be thrilled with a 9-3 record and a great big time bowl game.
Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
While I 100 percent agree with you, I think it would be great to see what happens if we somehow went 10-2. While highly improbable, 11-1 would make possibly the weirdest, craziest year in Illinois football history!!!
Assuming a scenario where Indiana, Illinois, and Penn State all finish the season with two losses, determining who would make the playoff among them would depend on several factors as evaluated by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee:
Conference Championship Status: A Big Ten Conference Championship would give any of the three teams a significant boost, potentially guaranteeing a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Oregon is currently favored to win the Big Ten.
Head-to-Head Records: If these teams played each other, the outcomes of those games would be crucial tiebreakers. Illinois defeated Indiana earlier this season.
Strength of Schedule: The strength of the opponents each team played, and their records against those opponents, would factor into the committee's decision.
Comparison of Results Against Common Opponents: How each team performed against the same opponents throughout the season would also be considered.
The committee prioritizes conference championships, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and common opponent comparisons when making their selections. In a scenario where multiple teams from the same conference finish with similar records, the committee's final rankings would ultimately decide which teams qualify for the playoff.
So of September 29, 2025, Illini have 47th rank of strength of schedule and Penn State has 21st ranked.
Conference Championship Status: A Big Ten Conference Championship would give any of the three teams a significant boost, potentially guaranteeing a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Oregon is currently favored to win the Big Ten.
Head-to-Head Records: If these teams played each other, the outcomes of those games would be crucial tiebreakers. Illinois defeated Indiana earlier this season.
Strength of Schedule: The strength of the opponents each team played, and their records against those opponents, would factor into the committee's decision.
Comparison of Results Against Common Opponents: How each team performed against the same opponents throughout the season would also be considered.
The committee prioritizes conference championships, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and common opponent comparisons when making their selections. In a scenario where multiple teams from the same conference finish with similar records, the committee's final rankings would ultimately decide which teams qualify for the playoff.
So of September 29, 2025, Illini have 47th rank of strength of schedule and Penn State has 21st ranked.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
Username does NOT check out.
“Potentially” nothing. “Significant boost” nothing. CFP automatically takes the 5-highest ranked conference champions and the next 7 highest ranked teams. So unless you’re saying that we could end up in a bizarro world where the Big Ten Champion was somehow ranked lower than the SEC, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12, and [insert Group of Five Conference Champion], we’d be in automatically.
I'll try to push out an updated Sellout Watch tonight, but wanted to get out in front of this: Rutgers is very close to being sold out. It might get announced as a sellout today. Stay tuned.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Completely agree here. If the Illini go 10-2, the most likely scenario is a split of the Ohio State and @Washington games. If Illini beat Ohio State and have a tight road loss @Washington, then the Illini resume still looks very good (ditto if Illini lose competitive game at home to Ohio State and then win on road). It also means the Illini win out in November (meaning a win against Maryland -- assuming they are still performing well).
For IU to have three losses, it most likely means that they have lost @Oregon, @PSU, and @Maryland. When you pull out their overall resume then, you would have two quality wins (home vs Illini and @Iowa -- all of which would have been in September). Looking at the overall schedules, I find it hard to believe that a 9-3 IU team gets in over a 10-2 Illini team (even more so if Duke performs strongly in ACC play). I think some people are placing too much weight on one individual game, and the Illini likely get more benefit of doubt because the embarrassment came in mid-September on the road (and you could argue with a banged up squad).
Of course, all of this is hypothetical. I believe the ceiling for the Illini at the moment is 10-2, but virtually everything would have to go right and the youth in the secondary will have to improve greatly as the season progresses. If the team gets to 9+ wins in regular season, then I will consider it a very successful season. 8 wins, and I would still see it as a good season. The injuries in the secondary are tampering my expectations, but Saturday's win vs USC was so important for the season. If the Illini handle business on Saturday, then I will still feel very good about entering Ohio State game at 5-1 (even with the beatdown in Bloomington).
Looking at the schedules, I actually do think we should get in over Nebraska or Michigan. Especially if Duke keeps winning. If Duke can end up with 8 or 9 wins that will make us look much better.
Here are the chances for each of those teams to get to 10+ wins, per KFord...
TOSU: 96%
Oregon: 89%
Indiana: 89%
Michigan: 30%
PSU: 24%
Nebraska: 21%
Washington: 12%
Illinois: 12%
USC: 11%
Maryland: 2%
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
Maryland may actually be terrible, but they are undefeated and have a decently favorable schedule going forward. I think they ultimately drop at least 3 more but I think their odds of going 10-2 are way more than 2%. They have to have better odds than Washington, who already has one loss and also still has Oregon on the schedule.
I think PSU can lose to Iowa and OSU and beat Indiana. If you look at Indiana schedule, they probably have to lose to Oregon, Maryland, and PSU to get three L.
Dan
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mhuml32
Gesture of Northern Aggression
From an efficiency perspective, it's not even close. He leads in almost every meaningful statistical category that is viewing him over his career (at Illinois) work. At worst, he's on the Illinois QB Career Mount Rushmore.
Only 11 Illinois QBs have 700+ passing attempts, which creates a good cut-off of who's eligible for consideration: Scheelhaase, Kittner, Trudeau, Juice, Verduzco, Eason, Lunt, Altmyer, Beutjer, Johnny Johnson, and Jeff George.
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