Illini Football 2025

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#1      

Dan

Dan
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Dan
Welcome to the Illinois Football 2025 thread :illinois:


Schedule | Roster | Tickets


2025 Illini Football (6-3, 3-3)
DateOpponentResult
Fri, Aug 29Western IllinoisW 52-3
Sat, Sept 6at DukeW 45-19
Sat, Sept 13Western MichiganW 38-0
Sat, Sept 20at IndianaL 10-63
Sat, Sept 27USCW 34-32
Sat, Oct 4at PurdueW 43-27
Sat, Oct 11Ohio StateL 16-34
Sat, Oct 25at WashingtonL 25-42
Sat, Nov 1RutgersW 35-13
Sat, Nov 15Maryland
Sat, Nov 22at Wisconsin
Sat, Nov 29Northwestern

All times CT
 
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#2      
phats22
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#7      
Fly Illini Fly!
Hypothetical: if Illinois, USC, IND, PSU all go 10-2, with OSU and Oregon going 12-0... how many teams get in?
 
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#8      
Vinegarben
Only 2 Big Ten teams will get in period. The rest of the playoff entrants will come from the SEC no matter how many losses they have!
 
#13      
mhuml32
I have been somewhat disappointed in the defensive line, most with the star (Jacas)

70th in sack percentage (lower than last year)
72nd in rushing yards allowed
Jacas is the 773rd graded edge rusher for run defense (out of 782)
 
#14      
mhuml32
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Hypothetical: if Illinois, USC, IND, PSU all go 10-2, with OSU and Oregon going 12-0... how many teams get in?
Click to expand...

This would mean Penn State loses to Ohio State but beats Indiana.
Indiana loses its two remaining games against ranked teams and leaves them with beating Illinois as their best win.
Illinois would have a similar but worse resume than Indiana - their lone ranked win would be against USC.
USC going 10-2 means they beat both Michigan and @Notre Dame.

Barring Duke finishing 9-3 or 10-2 (unlikely), I would predict that Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, USC, and Indiana get in.
 
#16      
Illiniam1984
mhuml32 said:
This would mean Penn State loses to Ohio State but beats Indiana.
Indiana loses its two remaining games against ranked teams and leaves them with beating Illinois as their best win.
Illinois would have a similar but worse resume than Indiana - their lone ranked win would be against USC.
USC going 10-2 means they beat both Michigan and @Notre Dame.

Barring Duke finishing 9-3 or 10-2 (unlikely), I would predict that Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, USC, and Indiana get in.
Click to expand...
If both Illinois and USC are 10-2, USC isn’t getting in. We are better than USC and it showed throughout the game. The score shouldn’t have been that close.
 
#18      
Rooftop
mhuml32 said:
I have been somewhat disappointed in the defensive line, most with the star (Jacas)

70th in sack percentage (lower than last year)
72nd in rushing yards allowed
Jacas is the 773rd graded edge rusher for run defense (out of 782)
Click to expand...
Spot on. This is the largest, by far IMO, flaw of this team.
D Line up to this point is worse than what we anticipated it to be.
 
#19      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
MikeTisdale said:
USC going 10-2 means they won 2 out of the 3 Michigan, @Notre Dame, @Oregon games. They likely won't do that, but in that scenario, they'd have 2 wins better than Illinois, with Illinois' best win being at home against USC.
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What? They aren't beating Oregon... if we played this out their best wins would be 9-3 Michigan and 9-3 ND. Illinois would have beaten 10-2 USC (better win than both, and also head to head), as well as Duke and Washington who I think are 8+ win teams.

And why would they just abandon head to head? You may not think we make it in, but there's virtually zero way a 10-2 USC is ahead of a 10-2 Illinois.
 
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#20      
mhuml32
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
What? They aren't beating Oregon... if we played this out their best wins would be 9-3 Michigan and 9-3 ND. Illinois would have beaten 10-2 USC (better win than both, and also head to head), as well as Duke and Washington who I think are 8+ win teams.

And why would they just abandon head to head? You may not think we make it in, but there's virtually zero way a 10-2 USC is ahead of a 10-2 Illinois.
Click to expand...

This is why comparisons are tough, people starting predicting the outcomes of a bigger and bigger circle of teams to support their arguments. It's possible that Illinois could have a better resume than USC. We just don't know much about the future games and opponents.

- Duke might be the team we know the most about because they've played a good amount of games against solid competition but they could be 9-3 through 6-6.
- Washington hasn't played a game outside of their state yet. They've beaten three bad teams and lost to an elite team. Let's see how they go against the middle tier and perform on the road.
- Michigan has played enough games to know they're solid but they only have one remaining ranked opponent (Ohio State) currently. I am not sure they go 9-3 like you, but Michigan will be solidly ranked if they go 9-3.
- Notre Dame is the team we might be the most certain about because they have a cakewalk schedule remaining. Like UM, a 9-3 Notre Dame team would be ranked based on wins and brand, at minimum.
 
#21      
Battle89
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
What? They aren't beating Oregon... if we played this out their best wins would be 9-3 Michigan and 9-3 ND. Illinois would have beaten 10-2 USC (better win than both, and also head to head), as well as Duke and Washington who I think are 8+ win teams.

And why would they just abandon head to head? You may not think we make it in, but there's virtually zero way a 10-2 USC is ahead of a 10-2 Illinois.
Click to expand...
By the time the human committee gets to debating, there will have been a mid-year rule change allowing linemen to go ten yards downfield, and several medical studies published regarding the bravery of the USC warriors, who ferociously stood their ground at the ungodly body hour of 9am while fighting off the worst salmonella outbreak in modern history.
 
#22      
fuddrules
It'll be named as well. "Poopy Pants Gate :poop:". Kinda like weather patterns (atmospheric rivers :rolleyes:), if you want to create a narrative, give it a name.
 
#23      
MikeTisdale
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
What? They aren't beating Oregon... if we played this out their best wins would be 9-3 Michigan and 9-3 ND. Illinois would have beaten 10-2 USC (better win than both, and also head to head), as well as Duke and Washington who I think are 8+ win teams.

And why would they just abandon head to head? You may not think we make it in, but there's virtually zero way a 10-2 USC is ahead of a 10-2 Illinois.
Click to expand...
A USC win @Notre Dame is easily the best win between a 10-2 USC and 10-2 Illinois team (unless one of those 10 wins for Illinois is OSU, but that changes the whole discussion, same as USC winning @Oregon). And just guessing how the season plays out, USC's home win against Michigan will end up being a similar level win to Illinois over USC.

The committee won't throw out head to head, but a 2 point loss on the road for USC can be easily ignored to get a blue blood program into the playoff over Illinois if they have better wins. Illinois' schedule is pretty bad - it's essentially Indiana's schedule from last year (it's harder than that, but close), and there was 0% chance Indiana made the playoffs with 2 losses last year.

None of this really matters though, the odds of Illinois and USC being 10-2 with those specific resumes is like 1%.
 
#25      
Illini2010-11
I think these hypotheticals are all interesting, but I think it really is a wait and see approach. Last season, Illini were on the outside looking in with a 9-3 record, but 10 wins would have very likely had the Illini likely in. The B1G got 4 teams in last season (Oregon - 13-0, Penn State - 11-2, Ohio State - 10-2, and Indiana - 11-1). I think it is extremely likely that if Illinois had won the Minnesota game and only two road losses at Penn State and Oregon, Illinois likely would have been selected over an 11-2 SMU team. That would have meant five B1G teams in CFP.

The magnitude of the IU loss feels like an anchor right now, but getting to 10 wins would mean that the Illini would have won at least 5 of their last 6 games (including at least three of OSU, @Washington, Maryland, and @Wisconsin). That will be a very competitive resume, but we will not know how the other power conferences look until late October/early November.

As of today, I am cautiously optimistic for the Illini at 10-2 in getting one of the last spots in the CFP. However, at this point, I am personally looking to see the Illini go at least 5-2 the rest of the season to get back-to-back 9 win regular seasons. I think expectations are justifiably tampered a bit due to the extent of the Bloomington Massacre, but the Illini still have a lot to play for these next 7 games.
 
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