Pregame: Illinois vs Ohio State, Saturday, October 11th, 11:00am CT, FOX

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#177      
November 10, 2007.

It was my 21st birthday. Watched with friends and family over fish sandwiches and beer at Legends.

I'm married and have a kid and this was still the best day of my life.
I remember "watching" the game via ESPN's site while I worked the JCPenney Catalog desk at Market Place mall. Lit out of there as soon as my shift was over and hightailed it to KAM's to celebrate.
 
#178      
For all the “why the doom and gloom” posters:
Remember when you guys said all of that before the Indiana game, and we didn’t even realize how bad the Indiana game was going to be?

That’s why.

I’m sorry, but this defense hasn’t shown the ability to stop anything. I think we are good for another four wins (maybe 5), but if we win this game on Saturday, it’s because Ohio State lost it. This is not a good match up for us and the way we play “give up 7 yards each play” defense.

OSU 48
Ill 17
 
#179      
Better be the biggest adjustment possible in our defense.
We don’t have a good defense, but we don’t have 3rd worst defense in the B1G either. This stat is misleading because it is not opponent adjusted. According to KFord, we have played the #1, #10, and #26 ranked offenses in the nation. You’re going to give up some yards against those teams.

Our opponent adjusted stats according to KFord give us the 49th ranked defense in the nation, which is better than Northwestern, USC, Michigan St, Rutgers, Purdue, and UCLA. And Wisconsin and Minnesota are also in the 40s.
 
#180      
I’m with you. I’ve had more fun watching Illinois football in the last three years than I’ve probably had in the last 23 years.

I just don’t get into all the analyzing and agonizing and hand wringing and predictions over something I have no control over anyway.

I’ll be there Saturday, and we’ll have two grandkids in tow, ages 8 and 12. They don’t know who Ohio St. is or even care. They don’t understand bowl games or the CFP or 3rd down conversion percentage. They love going to games and being in the exciting atmosphere of live college sports. And they like the Illini because I do.

Win or lose we’ll be back home by 5:00 and the grill will be lit and we’ll have a great fall Saturday night with family. The beer might taste better after beating the #1 team in the country, but life will go on.

Maybe I’m in the minority or just old fashioned but the FamILLy motto rings true for me, and that’s more important and lasting than any win-loss record or bowl game bid.

Just enjoy the ride and whatever happens, happens.
There is a lot of scar tissue in this fan base due to it's history since the early 90's. Bret is chopping that scar tissue away bit by bit every year. I'm an admittedly pessimistic fan by nature (being a Cub fan will do that to you pre 2016) but I find my confidence in this operation growing. Is it likely we win this Saturday. No, its not. And there's a chance we get run out of the building. And it would be frustrating in the moment, but at the end of the day, as long as we have the big guy roaming our sidelines, I trust the program is in solid hands.

He's the best tactical coach we have had in a very long time. He's good at the PR side of things in dealing with the media. And he has upgraded the talent on the roster. Do we have some holes. Absolutely, we've all seen the defense give up lots of yards. But do most programs south of OSU, Bama, Georgia and a few others consistently have holes in their roster? Yes they do. He seems to be able to minimize our weaknesses and maximize our strengths. Also the way the team responded after an utterly humiliating loss in Bloomington tells me that the guys in that locker room are fully bought in to Bret & staff as their coaches. That speaks very well to the long term prospects for this program. Even if OSU lays a 45-10 on us (PS - I don't think they will) the program is in pretty darn good shape going forward.

I suspect we are just gonna let it all hang out on Saturday. Not saying we win but I think we are gonna give em a heck of an effort. And if we get an early lead, I'll really like our chances. Bret can ball control with the best of em.
 
#181      
It's going to take tO$U turnovers. A lot of them. Duke level.

I hope the turnover fairy is with us.

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#182      
Well a lot can happen from a blow out loss (most likely not) to eeking out a win. There a no question tOSU is #1 for a reason and has a substantial talent advantage. We need a lights out passing attack from the offense and a few lucky breaks. We also need to limit their possessions (how you do both I don’t know). The most likely scenario is we keep it close for a good chunk of the game and they pull away late.

One advantage we have, and I say this with no hesitation - we have the better coaching staff. Ryan Day would not win at Illinois the way Bret has.
 
#183      
My positive "tiered" outlook for this game on the Monday of game week looks something like this:

1) Win, and this is up there with the biggest wins in program history. We really don't have to go into why that is the case, but for one ... it COMPLETELY erases the IU loss from existence, IMO.

2) Lose in a competitive game, and we can all feel REALLY good about where this team is headed. If we avoid getting handily beaten on Saturday, I think it is because we have made a TON of progress fixing some of our defensive issues - even IF OSU helps us out by making costly mistakes. 10-2 is within sight, the CFP dream is not dead (especially with a little help from around the country) and we can begin to more confidently conclude that the Indiana loss really was a fluke.

3) Lose handily but with an appropriate amount of pride/effort, and it's pretty much what we all expected. As long as Memorial Stadium is showcased to have an awesome gameday environment (and I'm quite confident it will!!) and we don't get embarrassed, there is nothing about losing by multiple scores to the #1 team in the nation.

4) If we DO get truly destroyed Indiana style ... well, that will be nothing short of a true disappointment, and there's no way around that. To maintain some positive momentum going forward, we need to hang with them for at least a while. I'm reminded of our 2023 home loss to a top 10 PSU team; we ended up losing 30-13 and never were REALLY a threat to pull off the upset, but fans could still go into halftime somewhat excited about a one-score game. It wasn't until the third quarter that things got away from us, and I think that should be the goal on Saturday if we truly are as outmatched as we look on paper.

It seems pretty obvious that at the end of the day, we'll go as far as the O-line and defense can take us. As long as they get SOME help from those units, I think Luke and the offense will make enough plays to carry their weight. We need A LOT to go right to pull off the upset, but I think to get in that #2/#3 area as described above, we just need the defense to execute at a BASIC level, lol...
 
#187      
Our opponent adjusted stats according to KFord give us the 49th ranked defense in the nation, which is better than Northwestern, USC, Michigan St, Rutgers, Purdue, and UCLA. And Wisconsin and Minnesota are also in the 40s.

so minnesota is ahead of us and gave up 42, albeit in columbus.

i don't think pointing out our defensive struggles and who we are facing is doom and gloom. obviously i hope we win, but i really don't see how it's within reason.
 
#188      
Illinois is 14-4-1 against the spread since the start of the 2024 season. Tied for best in the country. 5-1 this year. This coaching staff has done an outstanding job with the roster they have.

That said, we have only played maybe 3 truly elite teams over that time (Indiana elite?). Penn State/Oregon last year, Indiana this year (maybe). We are 0-3 straight up and 1-2 against the spread in thise games. Last year's Penn State line (-17.5) is most similar to this week's line. We have played some good teams though to a variety of results the last couple years, so anything is possible. Below are my expectations, just need that 1 in 10 game!

How Game Plays Out In My Head (odds in my head)
Praying for 2024 Michigan game. (1%)

Hyped over thought of 2025 USC game. (10%)

Accepting of 2024 Penn State game. (50%)

Unenthusiastic at prospect of 2024 Oregon game. (29%)

Please, please, please no repeat of 2025 Indiana game. (10%)
 
#191      
Kreutz could have played Saturday but Bret chose to keep him out to get him 100% for this week. McMillan was serviceable but if you go back and rewatch it Josh> TJ though.
Will Laughery work into the rotation this week?
 
#192      
so minnesota is ahead of us and gave up 42, albeit in columbus.

i don't think pointing out our defensive struggles and who we are facing is doom and gloom. obviously i hope we win, but i really don't see how it's within reason.
I’d assume the difference between 40th and 49th is statistically meaningless. Call it “similar” or “comparable”. There are so many far bigger variables than this number, such as our home crowd thise week..
 
#193      
Saturday will mark the first Illibuck matchup since 2017 and Ohio State's first visit to Champaign since 2015. Ohio State has won nine straight in the series dating back to Illinois' upset over #1-ranked Ohio State in 2007.

Gus Johnson (play-by-play), Joel Klatt (analyst), and Jenny Taft (reporter) have the television broadcast on FOX.

 
#194      

I’m most looking forward to this on Saturday. Bielema almost pleading here for a home crowd to create a good atmosphere.

Going to the Purdue game I was really impressed with the way they got their crowd into the game. I was told by a Purdue fan that their band is mic’d up, and I believe it. The band was very loud, even when the crowd was loud you could still hear them. There are times sitting near the south end at Memorial Stadium when the crowd is loud you can’t hear our band at all.

There was a kind of a buzz all day, even in the second half down by two scores, there was energy that I don’t think we always have.

Their music selections during some of the stoppages I thought were much better than we get at home. And I think their overall sound system is better.

I could definitely do without that damn train horn every two minutes, but it worked to get them fired up. I think we could take some lessons from them.
 
#196      
This game will be over quick if we lean on Fagin. WE would have much better chance having both the other 2 in game at same time running in opposite directions and Luke passing to a different player. Fagin is a good person, but he doesnt run with abandon like he did before getting hurt. But ultimately the defense will have to play the best of their career to even have a chance of victory.
 
#197      

I’m most looking forward to this on Saturday. Bielema almost pleading here for a home crowd to create a good atmosphere.

Going to the Purdue game I was really impressed with the way they got their crowd into the game. I was told by a Purdue fan that their band is mic’d up, and I believe it. The band was very loud, even when the crowd was loud you could still hear them. There are times sitting near the south end at Memorial Stadium when the crowd is loud you can’t hear our band at all.

There was a kind of a buzz all day, even in the second half down by two scores, there was energy that I don’t think we always have.

Their music selections during some of the stoppages I thought were much better than we get at home. And I think their overall sound system is better.

I could definitely do without that damn train horn every two minutes, but it worked to get them fired up. I think we could take some lessons from them.
The War Chant being played when we're trying to get a big stop on 3rd down gets me fired up... sigh... oh well.
 
#198      
Obviously it will depend on how other teams do, but I generally agree with this - it will be interesting if Michigan and us both finish 10-2 and OSU beats them as well, so we have losses to IU and OSU, they've lost to Oklahoma and OSU. We would have a lot of overlap in opponents and essentially an almost identical profile - the fact that they would lose late (last game of season) might help us, but it would also seem the human element of picking Michigan as the fourth big ten team over us would probably win out.
OU is going to lose 3-4 games. Their schedule is brutal and they were not great with Mateer in and he is out a couple games.
 
#199      
so minnesota is ahead of us and gave up 42, albeit in columbus.

i don't think pointing out our defensive struggles and who we are facing is doom and gloom. obviously i hope we win, but i really don't see how it's within reason.
Yeah, Minnesota is slightly better on defense and gave up 42.

But, we’re a lot better on offense. Minnesota has the 81st ranked offense according to KFord, whereas ours is 15th.

So the hope is that our offense can string together longer drives to limit OSU possessions. That’s really our only chance to keep this game close.
 
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