Illini Football 2025
- Status
TheFlyingIllini1317
- Chicago, IL
Just dreaming here: If we can keep it somehow close vs OSU and lose by less than 14, get right and fix things on the bye and just win vs Washington things can really break our way. A 10-2 finish gets us in with that if USC beats Michigan. I think Duke can be in the ACC title game if they beat GT and win the games their favored in. That has us good for 4th in the B1G, 10-2, with quality wins vs Duke, USC, and @Washington. That's a playoff resume.
At the very least I'd love 9-3 with date vs an SEC team in a bowl, I think as long as we don't play and SEC team with a dominant dline we can win.
At the very least I'd love 9-3 with date vs an SEC team in a bowl, I think as long as we don't play and SEC team with a dominant dline we can win.
mhuml32
Gesture of Northern Aggression
Didn't have time for game notes this week but the season is at the halfway point so we'll take a more season-wide view:
(1) Lots of frustration about the defense and there are stats out there to mention to support your argument. I'll only slightly push back in a couple ways. The defensive scheme is being simplified to nurse along some players being pressed into duty that is allowing a lot more yards in hopes of removing the big play. Illinois' offense is at its efficient peak under Bielema (and likely at its best since at least 2001), forcing the opponent to press their playcalling and game decisions to maximize their points. Lastly, Illinois is going through their toughest stretch of opponent QB play in a while (Mendoza, Maiva, Browne (not great), Sayin, and Demon (after the bye). It's probably going to look worse before it looks better.
(2) The linebacker play has been really bad besides Rosiek. James Kreutz has the lowest PFF grade for all Illinois defensive players. He's missed 20% of his tackle attempts and QBs are 6-for-6 when targeting Kreutz. Hayden has been playing more with Kreutz struggling and he had his best game against Purdue. Hood has been inconsistent, but also has tackling concerns. I've been viewing Hayden more of a run stuffer or blitzing option but the team is using him more and more in coverage, but I also wonder if Beerman is going to be rotated in for meaningful defensive snaps sooner rather than later.
(3) PFF loves the defensive line (besides Gabe's run defense). I'm wondering if collectively we are less excited about their performance because the linebacker and secondary deficiencies are making the d-line job that much harder. But here's your top-five Illinois defensive grades, you'll notice a unit pattern:
#1 - Eli Coenen (65 snaps)
#2 - Tomiwa Durojaiye (165)
#3 - Gabe Jacas (265)
#4 - Curt Neal (126)
#5 - Alec Bryant (184)
(4) The conservative playcalling on defense, specifically the dependency to play zone, is concerning because of the confidence of the secondary going into the season. Losing X is a major blow, and I don't mean to downplay it, but there are still a lot of long-time contributors and "steady hands" back there. I have no idea what's happen to Resetich but his game has cratered. He's played one snap the last two weeks. Also need Miles Scott to take a step forward in coverage.
(5) Last gripe before the positives - I love Lunney and hope he either gets a dream HC opportunity or sticks around, long-term. That said, a consistent complaint I have for him is the quasi-RPO in shotgun that initiates 95% of the RB runs in his offense. The down + distance + intentional slow decision makes it very predictable for opponents, therefore making it that much harder to initiate the running game. Lunney is likely taking this trade-off because he wants the almost guarantee that the rare Altmyer keep on the RPO pays off when it's needed the most, but it would be helpful to mix in some (old man yelling at cloud) traditional under-center looks with classic play-action. Would help the line and simplify reads for the RBs (who are probably the worst pass blocking RBs in B1G) but I'm assuming the toothpaste is out of the conceptual tube on this one.
(6) Lots of concerns (very much me included) about the WRs and finding a #1 option to start the year. Beatty has not only answered the call here but he has a plausible shot at 1st-team All-B1G. He's been so good this year that he has a chance to crack the Illinois top-12 in career receiving yards (~Casey Washington territory). Bowick has provided lots of RZ juice too.
(7) Olano has been money all year and I have complete confidence in him kicking a must-make FG from any realistic distance.
(8) With the complaints about the run blocking, the o-line deserves its kudos for its pass blocking. JC Davis had a rough first half against Duke but has been excellent besides that. Gesky is having his best year. Hansen's pass blocking has been good when he's playing. Henderson just had his best stretch of play. McMillen performed admirably in a spot start. Altmyer does not have the best pocket presence, so this has been a huge advantage this season.
(9) Valentine just provides some juice that the offense badly needs at times. This past week might have been signal that he's being pushed as the top back (though I'm guessing the staff leans on Feagin more against OSU because of their d-line's prowess and greater need for pass blocking).
(10) I said I would be over the moon if the team was 5-1 going into the Ohio State game. It was the most plausible path to making the playoff. True to my word, I am very happy with such a good start. So many seasons in the past 30 years that fell shot of five wins and Illinois has already accomplished that in early October and likely will be favored in four more games.
(1) Lots of frustration about the defense and there are stats out there to mention to support your argument. I'll only slightly push back in a couple ways. The defensive scheme is being simplified to nurse along some players being pressed into duty that is allowing a lot more yards in hopes of removing the big play. Illinois' offense is at its efficient peak under Bielema (and likely at its best since at least 2001), forcing the opponent to press their playcalling and game decisions to maximize their points. Lastly, Illinois is going through their toughest stretch of opponent QB play in a while (Mendoza, Maiva, Browne (not great), Sayin, and Demon (after the bye). It's probably going to look worse before it looks better.
(2) The linebacker play has been really bad besides Rosiek. James Kreutz has the lowest PFF grade for all Illinois defensive players. He's missed 20% of his tackle attempts and QBs are 6-for-6 when targeting Kreutz. Hayden has been playing more with Kreutz struggling and he had his best game against Purdue. Hood has been inconsistent, but also has tackling concerns. I've been viewing Hayden more of a run stuffer or blitzing option but the team is using him more and more in coverage, but I also wonder if Beerman is going to be rotated in for meaningful defensive snaps sooner rather than later.
(3) PFF loves the defensive line (besides Gabe's run defense). I'm wondering if collectively we are less excited about their performance because the linebacker and secondary deficiencies are making the d-line job that much harder. But here's your top-five Illinois defensive grades, you'll notice a unit pattern:
#1 - Eli Coenen (65 snaps)
#2 - Tomiwa Durojaiye (165)
#3 - Gabe Jacas (265)
#4 - Curt Neal (126)
#5 - Alec Bryant (184)
(4) The conservative playcalling on defense, specifically the dependency to play zone, is concerning because of the confidence of the secondary going into the season. Losing X is a major blow, and I don't mean to downplay it, but there are still a lot of long-time contributors and "steady hands" back there. I have no idea what's happen to Resetich but his game has cratered. He's played one snap the last two weeks. Also need Miles Scott to take a step forward in coverage.
(5) Last gripe before the positives - I love Lunney and hope he either gets a dream HC opportunity or sticks around, long-term. That said, a consistent complaint I have for him is the quasi-RPO in shotgun that initiates 95% of the RB runs in his offense. The down + distance + intentional slow decision makes it very predictable for opponents, therefore making it that much harder to initiate the running game. Lunney is likely taking this trade-off because he wants the almost guarantee that the rare Altmyer keep on the RPO pays off when it's needed the most, but it would be helpful to mix in some (old man yelling at cloud) traditional under-center looks with classic play-action. Would help the line and simplify reads for the RBs (who are probably the worst pass blocking RBs in B1G) but I'm assuming the toothpaste is out of the conceptual tube on this one.
(6) Lots of concerns (very much me included) about the WRs and finding a #1 option to start the year. Beatty has not only answered the call here but he has a plausible shot at 1st-team All-B1G. He's been so good this year that he has a chance to crack the Illinois top-12 in career receiving yards (~Casey Washington territory). Bowick has provided lots of RZ juice too.
(7) Olano has been money all year and I have complete confidence in him kicking a must-make FG from any realistic distance.
(8) With the complaints about the run blocking, the o-line deserves its kudos for its pass blocking. JC Davis had a rough first half against Duke but has been excellent besides that. Gesky is having his best year. Hansen's pass blocking has been good when he's playing. Henderson just had his best stretch of play. McMillen performed admirably in a spot start. Altmyer does not have the best pocket presence, so this has been a huge advantage this season.
(9) Valentine just provides some juice that the offense badly needs at times. This past week might have been signal that he's being pushed as the top back (though I'm guessing the staff leans on Feagin more against OSU because of their d-line's prowess and greater need for pass blocking).
(10) I said I would be over the moon if the team was 5-1 going into the Ohio State game. It was the most plausible path to making the playoff. True to my word, I am very happy with such a good start. So many seasons in the past 30 years that fell shot of five wins and Illinois has already accomplished that in early October and likely will be favored in four more games.
Very informative. I think #2 and 3 and definitely most notable in-game. Hopefully Hayden's emergence is a sign of things to come.
LB is my biggest worry as well given it impacts so much of the game - I expected to see more Barna this year as well given he's physically and athletically one of the best we have. It seems we've emphasized playing the experience and the transfers but at some point let the talent like Beerman and Barna play a lot more and figure it out. Hopefully Daniel Brown is back this week and that will help. I'd rather get the splash plays by the talented young guys than watch experienced players be in the right spot but not make the play over and over
In watching the Purdue game, Malachi Hood was out of position on like 3 of Purdue's touchdowns that went through his lane. Not sure what he was doing, but we have to do better.
Wondering when grant beerman will replace hood
There’s no way there going to go into next year without bringing in a qb, if they want to win
TentakilRex
- Land O Insects between Quincy-Macomb-Jacksonville
Maybe this should be in the USC postgame thread, though we should still have things to talk about from that game
That Benedict Brisket for you
That Benedict Brisket for you
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
I am guessing that the officiating crew missed more than 1 holding call that day. Heck, there may even have been a missed call or two that should have been called against USC. Shocking as that may appear.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Took a look at the TV ratings data for the first time in a while, and I thought it would be interesting to look at how the Big Ten's big three TV spots have fared so far (all times CST; viewers in thousands).
11:00 am on FOX (Big Noon Kickoff)
W1 - 16,620 for #1 Texas at #3 Ohio State
W6 - 4,627 for Wisconsin at #20 Michigan
W2 - 4,278 for Iowa at #16 Iowa State
W5 - 4,116 for #21 USC at #23 Illinois
W4 - 4,039 for #17 Texas Tech at #16 Utah (chose Big XII over Big Ten)
W3 - 2,277 for #4 Oregon at Northwestern
2:30 pm on CBS
W4 - 5,295 for #21 Michigan at Nebraska
W5 - 5,229 for #1 Ohio State at Washington
W2 - 2,320 for Oklahoma State at #6 Oregon
W1 - 2,242 for Nevada at #2 Penn State
W3 - 1,418 for USC at Purdue
W6 - N/A #7 Penn State at UCLA
6:30 pm on NBC
W5 - 8,300 for #6 Oregon at #3 Penn State
W3 - 5,800 for #16 Texas A&M at #8 Notre Dame (chose ND over Big Ten)
W6 - 3,698 for Minnesota at #1 Ohio State
W4 - 2,261 for #9 Illinois at #19 Indiana
W1 - 2,060 for New Mexico at #14 Michigan
W2 - 1,643 for Boston College at Michigan State
Just for fun! It will be really interesting to see what kind of ratings our game vs. OSU pulls. While OSU obviously brings a huge national audience, it would be cool to see if we can beat the audience for a previous game like, say, OSU/Washington.
11:00 am on FOX (Big Noon Kickoff)
W1 - 16,620 for #1 Texas at #3 Ohio State
W6 - 4,627 for Wisconsin at #20 Michigan
W2 - 4,278 for Iowa at #16 Iowa State
W5 - 4,116 for #21 USC at #23 Illinois
W4 - 4,039 for #17 Texas Tech at #16 Utah (chose Big XII over Big Ten)
W3 - 2,277 for #4 Oregon at Northwestern
2:30 pm on CBS
W4 - 5,295 for #21 Michigan at Nebraska
W5 - 5,229 for #1 Ohio State at Washington
W2 - 2,320 for Oklahoma State at #6 Oregon
W1 - 2,242 for Nevada at #2 Penn State
W3 - 1,418 for USC at Purdue
W6 - N/A #7 Penn State at UCLA
6:30 pm on NBC
W5 - 8,300 for #6 Oregon at #3 Penn State
W3 - 5,800 for #16 Texas A&M at #8 Notre Dame (chose ND over Big Ten)
W6 - 3,698 for Minnesota at #1 Ohio State
W4 - 2,261 for #9 Illinois at #19 Indiana
W1 - 2,060 for New Mexico at #14 Michigan
W2 - 1,643 for Boston College at Michigan State
Just for fun! It will be really interesting to see what kind of ratings our game vs. OSU pulls. While OSU obviously brings a huge national audience, it would be cool to see if we can beat the audience for a previous game like, say, OSU/Washington.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Gotta give Robert @ IlliniBoard credit for this stat. Here’s our record compared to all B1G teams over the past 19 games:
Oregon 18-1
Ohio State 17-2
Indiana 16-3
Illinois 15-4
Penn State 14-5
Michigan 12-7
Minnesota 12-7
USC 12-7
Iowa 11-8
Nebraska 11-8
Rutgers 11-8
Washington 10-9
Maryland 10-9
Michigan State 9-10
Northwestern 9-10
Wisconsin 8-11
UCLA 7-12
Purdue 4-15
www.illiniboard.com
4th! 4th in an 18 team B1G.
To put this into context.
Penn St: (4) 5 stars (58) 4 stars.
Michigan: (4) 5 stars (49) 4 stars.
USC: (3) 5 stars (38) 4 stars.
Nebraska: (2) 5 stars (33) 4 stars.
UCLA: (1) 5 star (24) 4 stars.
Wisconsin: (0) 5 stars (26) 4 stars.
Washington: (0) 5 stars (18) 4 stars.
Michigan St: (0) 5 stars (19) 4 stars.
Minnesota: (0) 5 stars (15) 4 stars.
Iowa: (0) 5 stars (13) 4 stars.
Maryland: (0) 5 stars (17) 4 stars.
Purdue: (0) 5 stars (11) 4 stars.
Northwestern: (0) 5 stars (8) 4 stars.
Illinois: (0) 5 stars (7) 4 stars.
… and we have the best record of any team on that list. There is not a team in the B1G doing more with less than Illinois.
Purdue and Northwestern have a higher team talent composite score than Illinois.
In their last 19 games, they have 13 wins combined. We have 15.
Build. The. Statue.
Source:
247sports.com
Oregon 18-1
Ohio State 17-2
Indiana 16-3
Illinois 15-4
Penn State 14-5
Michigan 12-7
Minnesota 12-7
USC 12-7
Iowa 11-8
Nebraska 11-8
Rutgers 11-8
Washington 10-9
Maryland 10-9
Michigan State 9-10
Northwestern 9-10
Wisconsin 8-11
UCLA 7-12
Purdue 4-15
How To Frame This Season
I woke up at 3:37 this morning. No idea why. It felt like one of those "the game is today and my brain is too excited to let me sleep" kinds of things. I famously did not sleep at all the night before the Duke game. And I often
www.illiniboard.com
4th! 4th in an 18 team B1G.
To put this into context.
Penn St: (4) 5 stars (58) 4 stars.
Michigan: (4) 5 stars (49) 4 stars.
USC: (3) 5 stars (38) 4 stars.
Nebraska: (2) 5 stars (33) 4 stars.
UCLA: (1) 5 star (24) 4 stars.
Wisconsin: (0) 5 stars (26) 4 stars.
Washington: (0) 5 stars (18) 4 stars.
Michigan St: (0) 5 stars (19) 4 stars.
Minnesota: (0) 5 stars (15) 4 stars.
Iowa: (0) 5 stars (13) 4 stars.
Maryland: (0) 5 stars (17) 4 stars.
Purdue: (0) 5 stars (11) 4 stars.
Northwestern: (0) 5 stars (8) 4 stars.
Illinois: (0) 5 stars (7) 4 stars.
… and we have the best record of any team on that list. There is not a team in the B1G doing more with less than Illinois.
Purdue and Northwestern have a higher team talent composite score than Illinois.
In their last 19 games, they have 13 wins combined. We have 15.
Build. The. Statue.
Source:
2025 College Football Team Talent Composite
In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.
247sports.com
You can literally find a hold that wasn’t called on almost every play
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I was always a baseball (and to a lesser extent soccer and even lesser extent basketball) player growing up, so I have no "first-hand" knowledge when it comes to football. Several years ago, I asked my friend who played QB at a D3 school how a player can be dumb enough to get called for holding right in front of like three officials ... his response was it actually isn't dumb at all, because 95% of the time they get away with it, lol.
It happens every play. Usually won’t get called unless it’s a blatant hold or directly impacts the play.
Battle89
- Cary-Grove, the better Trojan team
blackdog
- Champaign
The way I've heard it described by officials is that its ok to grab the jersey if its within the frame of the players and the blocker is head on with them.
Coaches send tape to the officiating offices all the time. Generally speaking the officials will make a statement if they got it wrong.
Making the statement yourself is just soft. I think USC is a good team but outside of that QB and Lemon I don't see a lot of fire in that program.
Lincoln Riley's clock management lost them that game.
Making the statement yourself is just soft. I think USC is a good team but outside of that QB and Lemon I don't see a lot of fire in that program.
Lincoln Riley's clock management lost them that game.
pruman91
- interviewing new NL's daily....I really really am
Excellent post.....it really really is......Gotta give Robert @ IlliniBoard credit for this stat. Here’s our record compared to all B1G teams over the past 19 games:
Oregon 18-1
Ohio State 17-2
Indiana 16-3
Illinois 15-4
Penn State 14-5
Michigan 12-7
Minnesota 12-7
USC 12-7
Iowa 11-8
Nebraska 11-8
Rutgers 11-8
Washington 10-9
Maryland 10-9
Michigan State 9-10
Northwestern 9-10
Wisconsin 8-11
UCLA 7-12
Purdue 4-15
How To Frame This Season
I woke up at 3:37 this morning. No idea why. It felt like one of those "the game is today and my brain is too excited to let me sleep" kinds of things. I famously did not sleep at all the night before the Duke game. And I often
4th! 4th in an 18 team B1G.
To put this into context.
Penn St: (4) 5 stars (58) 4 stars.
Michigan: (4) 5 stars (49) 4 stars.
USC: (3) 5 stars (38) 4 stars.
Nebraska: (2) 5 stars (33) 4 stars.
UCLA: (1) 5 star (24) 4 stars.
Wisconsin: (0) 5 stars (26) 4 stars.
Washington: (0) 5 stars (18) 4 stars.
Michigan St: (0) 5 stars (19) 4 stars.
Minnesota: (0) 5 stars (15) 4 stars.
Iowa: (0) 5 stars (13) 4 stars.
Maryland: (0) 5 stars (17) 4 stars.
Purdue: (0) 5 stars (11) 4 stars.
Northwestern: (0) 5 stars (8) 4 stars.
Illinois: (0) 5 stars (7) 4 stars.
… and we have the best record of any team on that list. There is not a team in the B1G doing more with less than Illinois.
Purdue and Northwestern have a higher team talent composite score than Illinois.
In their last 19 games, they have 13 wins combined. We have 15.
Build. The. Statue.
Source:
2025 College Football Team Talent Composite
In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
And considering the Illini gave up 14 with the goal line fumbles. If you want “true score” - okay then put 14 back on the board for Illinois. The better team won, we just got there in a weird way.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I've really enjoyed these "perspective posts," and I think they have been even more necessary in the wake of that Indiana loss. That was just such a shock to the system for our fan base, and it's understandable why some traumatic responses rooted in our history reared their ugly heads for many here, haha ... but it is really important to remember just how foundationally different this current setup is than what we have had in many, many decades.Gotta give Robert @ IlliniBoard credit for this stat. Here’s our record compared to all B1G teams over the past 19 games:
Oregon 18-1
Ohio State 17-2
Indiana 16-3
Illinois 15-4
Penn State 14-5
Michigan 12-7
Minnesota 12-7
USC 12-7
Iowa 11-8
Nebraska 11-8
Rutgers 11-8
Washington 10-9
Maryland 10-9
Michigan State 9-10
Northwestern 9-10
Wisconsin 8-11
UCLA 7-12
Purdue 4-15
How To Frame This Season
I woke up at 3:37 this morning. No idea why. It felt like one of those "the game is today and my brain is too excited to let me sleep" kinds of things. I famously did not sleep at all the night before the Duke game. And I often
4th! 4th in an 18 team B1G.
To put this into context.
Penn St: (4) 5 stars (58) 4 stars.
Michigan: (4) 5 stars (49) 4 stars.
USC: (3) 5 stars (38) 4 stars.
Nebraska: (2) 5 stars (33) 4 stars.
UCLA: (1) 5 star (24) 4 stars.
Wisconsin: (0) 5 stars (26) 4 stars.
Washington: (0) 5 stars (18) 4 stars.
Michigan St: (0) 5 stars (19) 4 stars.
Minnesota: (0) 5 stars (15) 4 stars.
Iowa: (0) 5 stars (13) 4 stars.
Maryland: (0) 5 stars (17) 4 stars.
Purdue: (0) 5 stars (11) 4 stars.
Northwestern: (0) 5 stars (8) 4 stars.
Illinois: (0) 5 stars (7) 4 stars.
… and we have the best record of any team on that list. There is not a team in the B1G doing more with less than Illinois.
Purdue and Northwestern have a higher team talent composite score than Illinois.
In their last 19 games, they have 13 wins combined. We have 15.
Build. The. Statue.
Source:
2025 College Football Team Talent Composite
In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.
So, that got me thinking that our fan base seems nowhere near "jazzed" enough to be 5-1 ... and that made me want to look at all of the 5-1 (or better) starts we have had since the Slush Fund Scandal ... so I chose the Pete Elliott Era (beg. 1960) as a cutoff for head coaching regimes. I also tried to use one name for bowl games that have changed names over the years (e.g., "Outback Bowl" for our ReliaQuest and Hall of Fame bowl appearances).
Bielema Era | 2021 - Present
2025: 5-1 ... TBD
2024: 5-1 and #23 ... finished 10-3 and #16, Citrus Bowl champions
2022: 5-1 and #24 ... finished 8-5 and NR, lost Outback Bowl
Lovie Smith Era | 2016 - 2020
N/A
Tim Beckman/Bill Cubit Era | 2012 - 2015
N/A
Ron Zook Era | 2005 - 2011
2011: 6-0 and #16 ... finished 7-6 and NR, lost Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
2007: 5-1 and #18 ... finished 9-4 and #20, lost Rose Bowl
Ron Turner Era | 1997 - 2004
2001: 5-1 and NR ... finished 7-6 and NR, lost Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Lou Tepper Era | 1992 - 1996
N/A
John Mackovic Era | 1988 - 1991
1990: 5-1 and #5 ... finished 8-4 and #25, lost Outback Bowl
1989: 5-1 and #8 ... finished 10-2 and #10, won Citrus Bowl
--- Mike White Era | 1980 - 1987
1983: 5-1 and #11 ... finished 10-2 and #10, lost Rose Bowl
1982: 5-1 and #15 ... finished 7-5 and NR, lost Liberty Bowl
Gary Moeller Era | 1977 - 1979
N/A
Bob Blackman Era | 1971 - 1976
N/A
James Valek Era | 1967 - 1970
N/A
Pete Elliott Era | 1960 - 1966
1963: 5-0-1 and #2 ... finished 8-1-1 and #3, won Rose Bowl
In 65 years, we have been off to a 5-1 or better start only 11 times ... and Bielema has 3 of those in his 5 years as head coach. He's a few INCREDIBLY close losses in 2021 and 2022 from having us at (presumably) 6+ wins for FIVE straight seasons; that is truly unimaginable given where Lovie left us. I know the defense is concerning and many are psychologically worried about another embarrassment vs. OSU ala the Indiana game ... but good teams suffer bad defeats from time to time. We are in a really good spot, and if we can give OSU a game on Saturday, I would argue the Indiana loss should be permanently put in the rearview mirror, win or lose!
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