Illinois #17 in Preseason AP Poll
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RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
Illinois #6 in the first KenPom ranking.
So, how accurate are KenPom's preseason rankings?
Over the last 3 seasons, 16 of the 30 preseason top 10 teams ended the season in the top 10.
23 out of 30 ended in the top 15.
So, based on that sample, we have about a 75% chance of being a top 15, top 4 seed type of team.
Will be a fun year with a chance to be special.
Over the last 3 seasons, 16 of the 30 preseason top 10 teams ended the season in the top 10.
23 out of 30 ended in the top 15.
So, based on that sample, we have about a 75% chance of being a top 15, top 4 seed type of team.
Will be a fun year with a chance to be special.
Preseason metrics:
KenPom: 6 (https://kenpom.com/)
Torvik: 7 (https://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php)
EvanMiya: 8 (https://evanmiya.com/?team_ratings)
Those should closely mirror the NET ratings once those stabilize in January.
As for polls, if I had a guess, I'd think Illinois will land somewhere in the teens based on preseason bracketology guesses and published power rankings to this point. Maybe around 15.
KenPom: 6 (https://kenpom.com/)
Torvik: 7 (https://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php)
EvanMiya: 8 (https://evanmiya.com/?team_ratings)
Those should closely mirror the NET ratings once those stabilize in January.
As for polls, if I had a guess, I'd think Illinois will land somewhere in the teens based on preseason bracketology guesses and published power rankings to this point. Maybe around 15.
I had a little head canon going that the recent and violent shift in how rosters are constructed in various ways may have thrown a wrench in some of these analytical models, but it’s good to hear recent history is on our side.
Frankly outside of “who is our third PG”, this is the most complete team we’ve had since the final Ayo/Kofi year IMO and honestly it’s deeper.
I actually thought the models would be anti-Illinois, but it’s clearly been the exact opposite. Heck, I don’t even think they are factoring in our freshman enough!
They are definitely not factoring the freshmen significantly, since it's all projected based on class rankings for freshmen.
For example, if you use Torvik's RosterCast function and tell it that Keaton Wagler is actually a repeat Will Riley, Illinois moves up from 7 to 3 in the ratings.
I can't remember if KenPom publishes his formula, but I suspect part of that formula is the head coach's recent record. We've had a good 5 year run, so we might be getting a little boost from that.
This isn't earth shattering if you think about it, but I tried to make a predictive model a few years ago and the HC's past performance had the strongest influence on future wins and losses.
The thing I remain a bit skeptical about though is our defensive rating. All the predictive metrics have our defense ranked pretty high. I'm not sure what they're seeing to come to that conclusion. We've only had one top 20 defense since BU got here and this doesn't seem to be a particularly defensive minded roster. We do have size though and that's not nothing.
Illini #17 in preseason AP poll: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-basketball-poll
Full top 25:
1. Purdue
2. Houston
3. Florida
4. UConn
5. St. John's
6. Duke
7. Michigan
8. BYU
9. Kentucky
10. Texas Tech
11. Louisville
12. UCLA
13. Arizona
14. Arkansas
15. Alabama
16. Iowa State
17. Illinois
18. Tennessee
19. Kansas
20. Auburn
21. Gonzaga
22. Michigan State
23. Creighton
24. Wisconsin
25. North Carolina
Receiving Votes: NC State, Oregon, San Diego St., Texas, Ohio State, Kansas State, Ole Miss, Southern California, Missouri, Washington, Vandy, Iowa, Boise State, Mississippi St, VCU, Virginia, St. Mary's, Indiana, Oklahoma, Baylor
Full top 25:
1. Purdue
2. Houston
3. Florida
4. UConn
5. St. John's
6. Duke
7. Michigan
8. BYU
9. Kentucky
10. Texas Tech
11. Louisville
12. UCLA
13. Arizona
14. Arkansas
15. Alabama
16. Iowa State
17. Illinois
18. Tennessee
19. Kansas
20. Auburn
21. Gonzaga
22. Michigan State
23. Creighton
24. Wisconsin
25. North Carolina
Receiving Votes: NC State, Oregon, San Diego St., Texas, Ohio State, Kansas State, Ole Miss, Southern California, Missouri, Washington, Vandy, Iowa, Boise State, Mississippi St, VCU, Virginia, St. Mary's, Indiana, Oklahoma, Baylor
Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
I guess IU is a football school now?
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Opponents in bold:
1. Purdue
2. Houston
3. Florida
4. UConn
5. St. John's
6. Duke
7. Michigan
8. BYU
9. Kentucky
10. Texas Tech
11. Louisville
12. UCLA
13. Arizona
14. Arkansas
15. Alabama
16. Iowa State
17. Illinois
18. Tennessee
19. Kansas
20. Auburn
21. Gonzaga
22. Michigan State
23. Creighton
24. Wisconsin
25. North Carolina
Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
This article has a brief blurb about each of the top 25’s expected starting lineup. Not sure the twins will be starting together but here it is fwiw.
Edit: you can also see who transferred in from where in those starting lineups, so that’s interesting to track too.
www.espn.com
Edit: you can also see who transferred in from where in those starting lineups, so that’s interesting to track too.
AP men's college basketball preseason Top 25 poll breakdown
Here's what to know about each team in the AP men's preseason Top 25, from No. 1 Purdue to No. 25 North Carolina.
The hype around Keaton makes it seem like he could take the spot from mihailo which would be a pretty significant surpriseThis article has a brief blurb about each of the top 25’s expected starting lineup. Not sure the twins will be starting together but here it is fwiw.
Edit: you can also see who transferred in from where in those starting lineups, so that’s interesting to track too.
AP men's college basketball preseason Top 25 poll breakdown
Here's what to know about each team in the AP men's preseason Top 25, from No. 1 Purdue to No. 25 North Carolina.
With how young we are and how many unknowns there are, I'll definitely take #17! I think we have the capability to be a top 10 team, MAYBE even top 5, based off of raw talent. Will that talent equal execution? We'll see, but I'm honestly more excited for this season than I was four the team last year at this same time...and I was pretty excited back then!
Going to be highly skeptical of the Keaton hype until I see it on the court and in Big Ten play. Many times over the decades we’ve heard stories of players with lights out shooting and amazing athleticism and skills in practice only to see it not materialize in real games. Or to see those player’s games disappear once conference play starts because the scouting and defense is so good.
I hope my skepticism proves to be 100% wrong.
Completely agree and hope to be 100% wrong as well.
I will always take these high expectations for incoming freshmen with a grain of salt. Even though he finished the season well, Will Riley had a very up and down year here (after the season opener of course where he went off for 30 something).
Now I understand it will be hard to tame these high expectations if Wagler has a same/similar result in the season opener. But IMO we just need to pump the brakes a little. It's just my humble opinion.
Remember when Underwood compared Mark Smith to Jason Kidd?
Since there are a few questions on the board about AP/KenPom rankings as well as further explanation of the "coaches rankings", the article blogged here by KenPom today does a good job of explaining both of these and more: Ken Pomeroy: Preseason ratings are here
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Obviously a lot can change from a preseason poll ... that kind of goes without saying. However, I do think it is worth noting that this is a significantly higher ranking than we had preseason for 2024-25 (RV category), 2023-24 (#25) or 2022-23 (#23). Again, that only means so much (after all, 2023-24 finished top 10 and was one of our better teams in school history when it was all said and done), but "outsiders" are liking the makeup of our current team more than they had in previous years, and that is coming off of an up-and-down season that ended with a Second Round exit and losing two players to the NBA...
... I'm going to allow that to start getting me pumped and optimistic.
And even more specifically, here is everything laid out in order of those games:
Nov. 11 - vs. #10 Texas Tech
Nov. 19 - vs. #15 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
Nov. 28 - vs. #4 UConn (New York, NY)
Dec. 6 - at #18 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
Jan. 24 - at #1 Purdue
Feb. 7 - at #22 Michigan State
Feb. 10 - vs. #24 Wisconsin
Feb. 21 - at #12 UCLA
Feb. 27 - vs. #7 Michigan
And we also get the following teams that are receiving votes and made it into the top 40:
Dec. 9 - at (RV #30) Ohio State
Dec. 22 - vs. (RV #34) Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
Jan. 11 - at (RV #37) Iowa
Jan. 29 - vs. (RV #35) Washington
March 3 - vs. (RV #26) Oregon
It will be a difficult but very fun schedule! As others have said before, I see no downside to scheduling like we have been, especially if we will have a more experienced and (hopefully) more mature team. With a schedule like this, some lucky bounces here and there can all of a sudden have you staring at a REALLY great seed come Selection Sunday!
... I'm going to allow that to start getting me pumped and optimistic.
And even more specifically, here is everything laid out in order of those games:
Nov. 11 - vs. #10 Texas Tech
Nov. 19 - vs. #15 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
Nov. 28 - vs. #4 UConn (New York, NY)
Dec. 6 - at #18 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
Jan. 24 - at #1 Purdue
Feb. 7 - at #22 Michigan State
Feb. 10 - vs. #24 Wisconsin
Feb. 21 - at #12 UCLA
Feb. 27 - vs. #7 Michigan
And we also get the following teams that are receiving votes and made it into the top 40:
Dec. 9 - at (RV #30) Ohio State
Dec. 22 - vs. (RV #34) Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
Jan. 11 - at (RV #37) Iowa
Jan. 29 - vs. (RV #35) Washington
March 3 - vs. (RV #26) Oregon
It will be a difficult but very fun schedule! As others have said before, I see no downside to scheduling like we have been, especially if we will have a more experienced and (hopefully) more mature team. With a schedule like this, some lucky bounces here and there can all of a sudden have you staring at a REALLY great seed come Selection Sunday!
Secret scrimmage so won’t affect our seeding but the players will get some experience against the defending champs
I will just be happy if Wagler can come in and spell Petrovic and Boswell without much of a drop off. That would be a great weapon to have coming off the bench.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I think crowing any conference "the best conference" is really silly, especially in basketball where you have an excellently fluky event like the NCAA Tournament that can send the better team team packing early quite often. With that said, it is still interesting to analyze ... so here is the AP Poll by conference:
Big Ten
#1 Purdue
#7 Michigan
#12 UCLA
#17 Illinois
#22 Michigan State
#24 Wisconsin
Big XII
#2 Houston
#8 BYU
#10 Texas Tech
#13 Arizona
#16 Iowa State
#19 Kansas
SEC
#3 Florida
#9 Kentucky
#14 Arkansas
#15 Alabama
#18 Tennessee
#20 Auburn
Big East
#4 UConn
#5 St. John's (NY)
#23 Creighton
ACC
#6 Duke
#11 Louisville
#25 North Carolina
Other
#21 Gonzaga
Is it just me, or is that one of the more even distributions that we have seen in recent years? Obviously, the Big East and ACC are down compared to their historical reputations ... but to have six teams each from the Big Ten, Big XII and SEC - with all three conferences having a fairly similar distribution and them having the #1, #2 and #3 teams, respectively - seems pretty unique and cool.
Big Ten
#1 Purdue
#7 Michigan
#12 UCLA
#17 Illinois
#22 Michigan State
#24 Wisconsin
Big XII
#2 Houston
#8 BYU
#10 Texas Tech
#13 Arizona
#16 Iowa State
#19 Kansas
SEC
#3 Florida
#9 Kentucky
#14 Arkansas
#15 Alabama
#18 Tennessee
#20 Auburn
Big East
#4 UConn
#5 St. John's (NY)
#23 Creighton
ACC
#6 Duke
#11 Louisville
#25 North Carolina
Other
#21 Gonzaga
Is it just me, or is that one of the more even distributions that we have seen in recent years? Obviously, the Big East and ACC are down compared to their historical reputations ... but to have six teams each from the Big Ten, Big XII and SEC - with all three conferences having a fairly similar distribution and them having the #1, #2 and #3 teams, respectively - seems pretty unique and cool.
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