Pregame: Illinois vs Rutgers, Saturday, November 1st, 11:00am CT, NBC

[mhuml32]

Per Defensive FPI efficiency.
We were #6 in 2022.
We are #66 in 2025.

I have no idea what Robert is trying to point out? The metric is weighted according to who you play. So objectively...it's harder to end up in the top 10 without playing a top offense and shutting them down.

Also...if you play 4 top 10 offenses you don't get dinged as bad because the metric expects them to rack up points, yards, 1st downs etc.

This is why we are only #66 instead of roughly #100 like we are in other categories like PPG, stop rate, etc.

I agree that Robert is either missing the point of efficiency or is being disingenuous with his argument.


The only takeaway from comparing is that the '22 defense was the Death Star and also got the benefit of not having to face many good offenses, where the '25 defense is an average FBS unit (below average for P4) that is facing many good offenses - so therefore the gap between the two is viewed as wider by fans than by the advanced stats community?

 

[Serious Late]

We were projected as an 8-win team coming into the season. Some Books had us 7.5 juiced to the over, some had us 8.5, juiced to the under. The expectation that we were a 10-win team was nothing more than fan forum hope and a little media negotiation by Bret.

That 9-3 is still on the table, with 8-4 as a reasonable expectation is fantastic. We have battled all year, with an excellent qb, and some shakiness both on O and D around him. Indiana was atrocious, but we were the sacrificial lamb in their coming out party.

Go 3-1 to finish. 8+ wins in 3 of the last 4 years is outstanding, and further highlights our staff's coaching chops.

I'll be there Saturday, excited as all get out that I'm watching relevant Illini football in November.

 

[BZuppke]

I came on here last week and boasted that BB would surely be in the weeds helping Aaron Henry and the defense come up with a great game plan for UW...

I just knew with the extra time they would get it figured out ...

Hope that I will be the only one of us to get it wrong!

And Bret will be. Just and see what we do to UW. . . . In Madison

 

[illinifan1987]

Until the 5 in 5 passes. Then I'll be saying...

 

[Huggies5]

Henry's words on how we need to improve mean nothing to me. I'm tired of the same old rhetoric. I just don't think he was ready to be a DC.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Illiniinquirer guys sounded very frustrated with the defense. The entirety of the pod was about that side of the ball.

Common sense but I'd wholeheartedly agree - we just need to scrap and start over with whatever the plan is on those 3rd and 8/9/10+ situations. Whatever you come up with, it mathematically cannot be worse than we have currently.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

Man, Cignetti/Indiana has fried some of you all's brains. This is your brain in The Age of Cignetti:

What we want is for this program to be successful for the long run. Not just under Bielema, but under the next guy too and the one after that. Playoffs would have been awesome, no doubt, but the crucial thing was always to string together 8+ win seasons year after year. We can still do that.

 

[Dkayak]

We were projected as an 8-win team coming into the season. Some Books had us 7.5 juiced to the over, some had us 8.5, juiced to the under. The expectation that we were a 10-win team was nothing more than fan forum hope and a little media negotiation by Bret.

That 9-3 is still on the table, with 8-4 as a reasonable expectation is fantastic. We have battled all year, with an excellent qb, and some shakiness both on O and D around him. Indiana was atrocious, but we were the sacrificial lamb in their coming out party.

Go 3-1 to finish. 8+ wins in 3 of the last 4 years is outstanding, and further highlights our staff's coaching chops.

I'll be there Saturday, excited as all get out that I'm watching relevant Illini football in November.

Great reminder. Forum expectations were way out of line —- in the realm of remote possibility rather than probability. We’re right on track, performing to all reasonable expectations as we continue to build a program. Enjoying the ride and looking forward to Saturday!

 

[DeonThomas]

Fresh off a Citrus Bowl victory over #14 South Carolina and with 17 returning starters and a 3rd year starting QB, I just have to say that no one anywhere had expectations that we'd lose to Indiana 63-10 and give up 40 points/game in conference play this season.

 

[therealmiket86]

Illiniinquirer guys sounded very frustrated with the defense. The entirety of the pod was about that side of the ball.

Common sense but I'd wholeheartedly agree - we just need to scrap and start over with whatever the plan is on those 3rd and 8/9/10+ situations. Whatever you come up with, it mathematically cannot be worse than we have currently.

Our coverage sucks. I’m not sure how anyone thinks rushing 3 guys and getting no pressure is good for this secondary.

 

[ChiefIlliniWekDance]

Bro I have absolutely no idea What you’re talking about. With all due respect some of the Illini fan base live in an alternative universe and not reality. Reality is Curt Cignetti is 19-2 at Indiana on his way to back to back playoff appearances. Alternative universe is Bret who has been at Illinois for 5 seasons and is 5-7, 8-5, 5-7, 10-3 , 5-3 so far this season and is currently in 12th place in the Big Ten is building something special at Illinois the likes of which have never been seen before Never mind we’ve had successful single seasons under Ron Zook , Ron Turner , Lou Tepper , John Makovic . Give Cignetti his flowers as much as I dislike Indiana and it pains me to say Cignetti is a Better football coach than Bielema and Indiana has passed us by. I’ve been watching Big Ten and Illinois Football since 1978 Gary Moller was the coach of Illinois. You don’t get beat the way Indiana beat us in Bret’s 5th year and consider yourself having a championship football program or a championship coach. Sorry just being honest

 

[bluemountain]

A lot of people are getting too overwrought about the Washington game. If you look at our schedule to date, we have lost the 3 games we were supposed to lose, won the 3 games we were supposed to win and won the 2 tossup games. UW is more talented than we are and were playing at home - us winning would have been a pretty significant upset.

My rule of thumb for a school like Illinois is that a successful season consists of winning 2/3 of your games. We should win at least 3 of our remaining games, which will make 3 of the last 4 years successful seasons, after having one such season in the previous 20. Yes we need a new DC, yes we need a new O-Line coach and yes we need to upgrade our talent level if we want to maintain this level of success. But after having lived through a lot of bad years, I'm definitely enjoying our current success.

 

[mhuml32]

I said I will not be disappointed with an 8-4 season and I'm sticking with it. Beat Rutgers and then go into the bye where you can re-focus around three opponents where you'll be favored and two of which will be home games.

8-4 and I'm refusing to be disappointed if this season ends with that many wins.

 

[OnlyOrange]

I have absolutely no idea how the rest of the season will shake out. One thing I can say for sure is that this team did not improve from last year. You are either getting better or getting worse. Curt Cignetti and Indiana have changed college football. James Franklin fired after going 13-3 last season and one game from the National Championship. Brian Kelly fired today by LSU. Gone are the days of programs paying coaches multi million dollar contracts and having multi million dollar facilities and putting up with mediocrity. Cignetti ended all that. No more excuses for Bret Bielema and Illinois it’s been 5 seasons and We Got 5-7, 8-5,5-7,10-3 5-3 so far. Anything under 9 wins is a bad season in my opinion in the age of Cignetti. Especially after being at a school for 5 years. LSU only gave Kelly 4 Years. No more of being at a school for 6, 7 8 years winning 7-9 games and going to a meaningless bowl game and calling it a successful season. Not when you have a donor putting up 100 million dollars. Get it together Bret the clock is ticking

I get your point here, but as others have pointed out, Indiana had the most obscene, instantaneous turnaround in the history of modern American football (not even sure that's debatable at this point what Cig has done). While it'd be nice to have the same, it's totally unrealistic.

 

[pruman91]

After decades and decades of 0-fer, 2-10, 4-8, and 5-7 - followed by ONE year of 8 wins and a decent bowl, only to fall back the next year to 4-8 or so has been the story of Illinois football since the 1990's... We haven't even made any back-to-back bowl games of ANY KIND, since when ? ? ? ? If we can achieve back-to-back bowl games this season, we will have made HUGE progress... HUGE... I get the hype train / orange kool-aid drinking (young) crowd enthusiasm... I relish it and applaud it... I hope in my heart that it can carry the day... But I've seen fifteen (15) head coaches since Ray Eliot retired in 1959... How many coaching changes at Iowa during that time ? How many at Wisconsin, or Purdon't, or even Northwestern during that time ? ? ? ?

great post bro...................

 

[pruman91]

I really hope Cignetti is just like Charlie Weis at Notre Dame. He had got exposed in year 3 after he signed a big extension.

Both of them are definitely arrogant and will enjoy watching Cignetti's eventual downfall.

a couple of games ago or longer they showed cignetti chewing out a defender on the sidelines after the player got injured on a play.....the arrogant coach cig was still pizzed when he spoke to the sideline reporter at the halftime interview......

seems to me that all the praise has gone to cig's head.......give it 3-4 more years and see what level his loosiers are at before annoiting him as a coaching savant.......he could be the biggest flash in the pan washout in history.......he really really could be.................

the more you know.............

 

[pruman91]

Exactly, remember how many people on here made comments in the past saying that if BB could just get us to respectable and bowl eligible most years, we world build a statue of him. Now we lose the chance to go to the CFP and people are losing their minds. Am I happy about how this session had played out? Heck no, but considering where we are coming from and how long we were driven into the dirt, I'm thrilled to be 5 -3 at this point. I've been a fan for 60+ years and I've seen the bad, bad years We didn't get turned into a doormat over night and we aren't going to come out of it in a few years. It's going to take long sustained successful seasons of 8 to 9 wins a year over a few years to get our of the deep hole we were in. Yes we are going have some really good years. But also expect some mediocre years with a bad year sprinkled in every once in awhile. Do changed need to happen on the defense? Absolutely, I'm still thrilled to be an Illini Fan and can't wait for the future of Illini football with BB at the helm...ILL

 

[Illinir1]

A lot of people are getting too overwrought about the Washington game. If you look at our schedule to date, we have lost the 3 games we were supposed to lose, won the 3 games we were supposed to win and won the 2 tossup games. UW is more talented than we are and were playing at home - us winning would have been a pretty significant upset.

My rule of thumb for a school like Illinois is that a successful season consists of winning 2/3 of your games. We should win at least 3 of our remaining games, which will make 3 of the last 4 years successful seasons, after having one such season in the previous 20. Yes we need a new DC, yes we need a new O-Line coach and yes we need to upgrade our talent level if we want to maintain this level of success. But after having lived through a lot of bad years, I'm definitely enjoying our current success.

The disappointment is more about what could have been. We have a QB with skills we haven't had in 25 years, and an offense that is averaging 32.9 points per game. You should win every game you score 33 points in.

Meanwhile, our defense is currently 89/136 NCAA, and 14/18 B1G teams in points per game allowed (27.5 pts.) and 85/136 NCAA and 16/18 B1G teams in yards per game allowed (381 ypg). Our defense is better than only Purdue and Rutgers in the B1G. That means three of the last four teams we will play have a better defense than ours, currently.

This could have been a very special year if we had a top 1/3rd B1G defense.

 

[GoodePodzMelendez]

this is very simple, rush 5 and play man. If we lose because of it we lose but at least you aren't playing scared.

I honestly can't believe we are still playing zone, it doesn't even make sense at this point.

I have never been a fan of the 3-4. Unless you have the 80’s version of the Giants LB core, it’s not a good defense. The biggest complaint I have is Jacas being doubled. To avoid that and to screw up the other trams offense is move him around the line. Make them adjust to us. He needs to be rushing the QB every single play. Find the mismatch on their line and exploit it with Jacas. Avoid the double team. Rush 5-6 and play Bump and Run Coverage. Knock them, off their route instead of this 8 yards off the receiver crap. Play aggressive instead of this weak !!! zone.

 

[skyIdub]

Lol....ok...so I watch one of the absolute worst P5 football programs in the country go from a historic steaming pile of dairy cow sh@t to the CFP in consecutive years, and probably an undefeated season....and I raise my expectations for Illinois Football success....I've lost my mind!!!!

Bring on 8 win seasons every year!! YAY!!! We're Iowa!!

Can we call it Cignetti Derangment Syndrome?

 

[GoodePodzMelendez]

Lol....ok...so I watch one of the absolute worst P5 football programs in the country go from a historic steaming pile of dairy cow sh@t to the CFP in consecutive years, and probably an undefeated season....and I raise my expectations for Illinois Football success....I've lost my mind!!!!

Bring on 8 win seasons every year!! YAY!!! We're Iowa!!

Can we call it Cignetti Derangment Syndrome?

I do not want to be Iowa either doing the 8 wins a year stuff. The only way we can take the next step is for Bret to adjust his philosophies. We need two aggressive coordinators and stop this slow action run up the middle crap. Ball control is nice but if you ain’t scoring, it puts more pressure on the defense. If IU can turn their crap program around end, we can too. But we need to completely change our way of thinking on the field.

 

[Battle89]

The disappointment is more about what could have been. We have a QB with skills we haven't had in 25 years, and an offense that is averaging 32.9 points per game. You should win every game you score 33 points in.

Meanwhile, our defense is currently 89/136 NCAA, and 14/18 B1G teams in points per game allowed (27.5 pts.) and 85/136 NCAA and 16/18 B1G teams in yards per game allowed (381 ypg). Our defense is better than only Purdue and Rutgers in the B1G. That means three of the last four teams we will play have a better defense than ours, currently.

This could have been a very special year if we had a top 1/3rd B1G defense.

On the other hand, we still have a chance to win the 2018 Big 12 championship

 

[Dan]

 

[lstewart53x3]

I do not want to be Iowa either doing the 8 wins a year stuff. The only way we can take the next step is for Bret to adjust his philosophies. We need two aggressive coordinators and stop this slow action run up the middle crap. Ball control is nice but if you ain’t scoring, it puts more pressure on the defense. If IU can turn their crap program around end, we can too. But we need to completely change our way of thinking on the field.

Wait, is the fan narrative we aren't satisfied with being Iowa now?

From 2001 to 2024, Iowa went 200-107 averaging 8.33 wins per season.
Over that same 24 year stretch, we went 122-169 averaging 5.08 wins per season.

Our literal average is missing a bowl game.

In that same stretch Iowa made 23 bowls (they missed just one bowl game in 24 years!)
And we made just 8 bowls (missing a bowl game altogether 16 out of 24 years).

Btw, Iowa's average is 8.3 wins per year, but they won 10 or more 8 times in the past 24 years. They won 10 or more as many times as we made bowl games!

And we aren't happy being Iowa!? What's going on here?

 

[gary?]

I do not want to be Iowa either doing the 8 wins a year stuff.

wild stuff. did we even average 8 wins a season in the 80s, our most successful decade since, what, leather helmets were the norm?

if we did, that should tell you something. if we didn't, that should tell you even more.