Polls Thread

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#1      

Dan

Dan
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Dan
Welcome to the Polls Thread
 
#2      
Illini in Italy
Not ranked, probably not getting votes. Win out and we can be back in the top 25 to finish the year . . .

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#10      
Illinijoe
Illiniaaron said:
Quite a dramatic fall from being #9 at one point.
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Nothing like Penn State and even Texas given their expectations. Many examples of this every year. The AP voters are media members who just buy into hype. If they were analytically focused they’d have seen we were a solid team last year but stat wise played like a 30-40 ranked team. This is far from the top ten yet incredible for this program who is used to horrible seasons year in and year out.
 
#15      
altgeld88
For comparison below, Sagarin and AP. Seems that we're ~ right where it's merited at this point. Win out, move up.

Not a great difference among Washington, PSU, Michigan, Iowa and us, the result in Seattle a week ago aside. That UVa is #12, L'ville #14, Georgia Tech #16 and Cincinnati #25 in the AP poll is amusing.


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#18      
DeonThomas
I have us pegged at #22 in the forthcoming CFP release, trailing a bunch of 2-loss Big10 teams and Vandy. (And ahead of TENN.)
 
#19      
Iamgroot
Illini in Italy said:
Not ranked, probably not getting votes. Win out and we can be back in the top 25 to finish the year . . .

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A decent game against a lonely Rutgers that barely beat Purdue week before dont undo the abomination that happened at Washington and Indiana.however i do agree if we keep chalking up w and win out we should have a really good chance to be ranked at the end of the season
 
#21      
Piotyr
SP+ ratings updated. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...aW4Q92Zpls/edit?gid=1859168767#gid=1859168767

Illinois up 2 spots to 23rd (passed Louisville and Florida State).

If the playoffs were decided by SP+ rankings:
1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Oregon
4. Texas Tech
5. Texas A&M
6. Notre Dame
7. Utah
8. Ole Miss
9. Oklahoma
10. Georgia
11. Miami (auto ACC, 13th overall)
12. North Texas (auto G5, 27th overall)

Lurking:
11. Alabama
12. USC
14. Texas
15. Iowa

The SP+ ratings are much kinder to the B1G than the SEC compared to, say, polls. However, the polls are largely affected by internal inertia, which had a bunch of SEC teams ranked high to start the year, and then when they all beat each other, they accrue a bunch of games against ranked teams. SP+ doesn't care about that, just the quality of win efficiency against the quality of opponent (so if you win ugly and are outplayed, SP+ will see it as a loss of efficiency).

SP+ overall B1G teams:
1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Oregon
12. USC
15. Iowa
18. Michigan
20. Penn State (I mean, they continue to play every opponent close against a brutal schedule...even though they can't buy a win)
21. Washington
23. Illinois
25. Nebraska
60. Minnesota
61. Maryland
64. Rutgers
67. Northwestern
76. Michigan State
77. UCLA
84. Purdue
90. Wisconsin
 
#22      
hooraybeer
may be in the minority but i don’t really think we deserve to be ranked at this point. we have mostly laid eggs when given chances to prove ourselves, with our defense looking more like a bottom tier unit against decent squads
 
#23      
lstewart53x3
hooraybeer said:
may be in the minority but i don’t really think we deserve to be ranked at this point. we have mostly laid eggs when given chances to prove ourselves, with our defense looking more like a bottom tier unit against decent squads
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Yeah, we don’t deserve to be ranked outside of being ranked:

- 18th in ESPN’s resume rankings
- 18th in KFord’s most deserving rankings
- 23rd in KFord’s predictive metrics
- 23rd in SP+’s predictive metrics

So outside of all the advanced metrics (that take score into account except for ESPN’s resume rankings) that have us in the top 25, we totally don’t deserve to be in the top 25.
 
#24      
Fighter of the Nightman
Whether or not we "should" be ranked, I am frankly just surprised we are not. We jumped from #22 to #17 for beating Purdue on the road ... and suffered a bigger jump of going from #17 to unranked after losing to #1 Ohio State and scoring more on them than anyone had all year, lol. A more expected trajectory might have been to be around #19 when we played OSU, #24 after the loss and slowly creeping back up closer to #21.

Regardless of the INFURIATING issues this team has had with the defense and O-line at times, the fact remains that our body of work overall stacks up well to teams that ARE ranked. We have three losses - vs. #1, at #2 and at unranked Washington, who was #24 last week. We also have a win vs. #17 in our back pocket, and our average margin of victory in the remaining games is over 30 points.

When you take it all into account, we have...
(A) Lost handily to the best two teams in the country, one a "standard multi-score loss" to #1 at home and the other an absolute shellacking at #2 when we were shorthanded.
(B) Lost one disappointing game at unranked Washington, who was notably ranked last week.
(C) Handled everyone else by an average of 30+ points.

Tennessee also has 3 losses and is currently ranked #21. They have not beaten a single team in the current top 25, and they have needed OT to win at 5-5 Mississippi State and a last second victory at home vs. 2-7 Arkansas. There is no serious argument that they "deserve" to be ranked unless you (A) maintain that Oklahoma and Georgia are better than OSU and Indiana or (B) maintain that 4-5 Kentucky is better than USC, because that is Tennessee's best win. It's okay for us all to just admit that the SEC started out as being perceived to be "deeper" than the Big Ten, and it's a self-fulfilling prophecy for the rest of the year as they beat each other and get credit for it, lol.
 
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